<p>My son applied to a top LAC ED several years ago during a high point in the # of kids applying to college. My daughter plans on doing the same next year (she graduates hs 2012). Is the population trending downward yet and will it make a difference in the competition applying ED and RD to top LACs?</p>
<p>This class of college freshmen is extremely large,one of the largest ever according to the school my D attends…They actually had 20%± more students accept entrance then they anticipated…My D in HS,a junior,has a very large class also,but not as large as D in freshmen year at college…</p>
<p>Mindy, we went through the 2009 cycle, which many called the peak. But then, the most-discussed issue was baby boom demographics. While those numbers may be on the downswing, I think the continued surge in number of applications per student and international applicants has just pushed the wave higher. </p>
<p>A new twist for you this time is the girl factor. The stats I read most frequently settle at 57% female matriculating (and 60% female graduating from college). To compound the issue, some schools play with the numbers in an effort to achieve gender balance. All in all, the competition for girls is greater than for boys, and more so if you are going for a LAC. </p>
<p>In the small blessings department, I am happy to have a boy this time around!</p>
<p>I read that the number of high school grads peaked last year and is supposed to decrease, especially in the northeastern US. However, it is not a big decrease yet. There was a much much higher than high school grads going to college recently than in the early 1990s, when it was dramatically easier to get into the top colleges.</p>
<p>I understand that grad and law school admissions were extremely difficult in the last couple years because so many people decided to stay in school or go back to school to wait out the recession. Hopefully there will be full recovery by the time our kids want to attend grad school.</p>
<p>The Great Flood of 1993: Depending on who you ask, the flooding of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers in spring and summer of 1993 either caused a Midwestern baby boom or decline nine months later. Those babies, born in 1994, will be seniors of 2012. </p>
<p>In our community, there was no potable water for several weeks due to flooding of the water treatment facility. But the class of 2012 is larger than 2011 and 2010. The current seniors were infants during that time. Some of our school counselors attribute the undisciplined nature of this class through elementary and middle school to the flood.</p>
<p>Go figure.</p>
<p>I’ve heard it starting going down with the class of 2010 and will continue to decline for several years. According to my son’s GC, kids who a few years would have had no chance at certain schools got accepted last year and he expects that trend to continue for a few years at least.</p>
<p>The projected decline in U.S. high school graduates over the period 2010-2015 is extremely small – maybe 3% or so over the entire period (on a base of over 3 million). The U.S. higher education system as a whole will probably notice that change, although still-rising college attendance percentages, especially among Hispanics, mask the effect. At individual selective colleges that attract the kind of kids who apply to multiple colleges, and foreign students as well . . . it’s not going to be noticeably easier, that’s for sure.</p>
<p>I believe the peak was 2009. However, as mentioned above increased foreign applicants may mask the effect.</p>
<p>Also, the “common application effect” is increasing the number of applications (if not the number of applicants). Not all schools will see a decrease in applications, but some will. Moreover, the yields will change. Plus, the economy is driving mre and more competitive applicants to state flagships.</p>
<p>I think we will see it getting a little easier to get into some schools, but not all schools will be affected equally.</p>
<p>The Census Bureau projects increasing college enrollments through 2015. <a href=“http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/07statab/educ.pdf”>http://www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/07statab/educ.pdf</a> NCES projections have continued year-to-year increases in degrees awarded at least through 2017. [Degrees</a> conferred by degree-granting institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2016-17](<a href=“http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d07/tables/dt07_258.asp]Degrees”>Degrees conferred by degree-granting institutions, by level of degree and sex of student: Selected years, 1869-70 through 2016-17) The rate of increase starts to decline after 2000, and slows considerably in the last few years.</p>
<p>If you were president of a community college or directional state in New England, you would be very aware that demographic tides were working against you, and probably thinking about expanding the markets you serve, because the primary customer base is shrinking. But if you run a community college or directional state in Arizona, you are bracing for tsunamis of students. And if you are Harvard you just expect applications to keep increasing, regardless of the total population of U.S. high school graduates.</p>
<p>OK. Here’s a better table: <a href=“http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/10statab/educ.pdf[/url]”>http://www.census.gov/prod/2009pubs/10statab/educ.pdf</a> Look at Table 214 “School Enrollment 1980-2018” and Table 216 "School Enrollment: Faculty, Graduates, and Finances–Projections: 2008-2014.</p>
<p>High school enrollments were projected to peak for a while in 2007-2008, at just short of 16.5 million kids. They decline to a low of just under 16 million in 2011-2012. Then they start to climb again, passing the 2007-2008 level in 2015-2016 (i.e., class of 2018) and continuing to rise from there. The low point, however, is only 3% below the peak. </p>
<p>Consistent with that, there is a peak of high school graduates in the class of 2010 at 3.33 million, which declines to 3.19 million in 2015, or 4% below the peak.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, undergraduate enrollments are projected to increase every year throughout that period, from 15.4 million in 2007-2008 to 16.8 million in 2014-2015. (Table 214 shows higher education enrollments continuing to increase through 2018-2019, but it doesn’t distinguish undergraduate from graduate enrollment.) The rate of increase slows considerably from 2007 to 2011, but then starts to climb.</p>
<p>Bottom line is that there’s no demographic relief in sight for competitive college admissions. Sorry. The only way it’s going to get easier to get into Harvard is if Harvard builds more dorm space.</p>