@ArtsyKidDad That’s funny - Pomona was my kid’s first choice as well, but they paired her with her #2 choice, Middlebury (she’s from Posse Chicago as well). In the opinion of all of us now, Middlebury was a far better match for her, by way of character and temperament. They did match a very close friend of hers from school with Pomona, and the friend was selected by Pomona (it was a good Posse year for the HS).
So Posse considers the requests of the applicant, but also wants to maximize the chances of all applicants to be selected, and they want to provide each college with 20-25 potential scholars who are all really good matches. So they will also look to see whether the applicant is academically within the range (or demonstrates that they have the potential), and they look to fill the finalist lists with applicants whose interests, political leanings, etc, look to be a good match with the college.
Having academic within the range of the admitted students, or better, is always good, as is having a profile which matches that of accepted students. They also rely on what they know about the applicant from the interviews and the DAP 1 essay to figure out whether this person is a good choice for that particular Posse.
So having a high GPA will make it more likely that Posse will match your daughter with a partner college which is looking for students who can deal with challenging academics, like (from Chicago) Pomona, Cornell, and Middlebury.
When the college selects the 10 from the finalists, they are looking to build a team, so they are both selecting individuals, but not only based on their characteristics as individuals, but as parts of a team. So they may not select the individuals who would be at the top of their list as a regular applicant, if they do not see that this individual would make a good member of this particular team.
What I’m trying to say is that, while being a highly competitive applicant for Pomona helps, Posse is, most of all, looking for the best applicants for the 10 member team which they will be sending to Pomona. They are not looking for best 10 applicants, they are looking for the 10 applicants who will create the best 10 member team. of course, for that 10 to succeed they also should be good fits for the school.
It’s also important to remember that, with a 90% graduation rate across all partner colleges, Posse seems to be pretty good at matching applicants to colleges.
PS. while my daughter initially fell in love with Pomona when we visited (we have a lot of family in LA, so we visited SoCal colleges when we were visiting family). When she had to choose #2 and #3 on her list, she started to learn more about Middlebury. Being from Chicagoland, we had barely even heard about Middlebury. The more she learned, the better she liked it. She really loves being there, even with the Pandemic and all.