<p>
[quote]
Norcalguy:</p>
<p>Since you like to bring up the Cornell numbers let us look at them in more detail.</p>
<p>Cornell latest published numbers discloses that of a total of 208 first time applicants as juniors or seniors who took advantage of premed advising, 142 or 68% were admitted. (The admitted percentages for those not receiving any premed advising is not provided but certainly much lower).</p>
<p>Using your numbers of one in three students starting as premeds that means less than 10% actually apply within 3 years and another 10% within 4 years. Among these around 2 out of 3 will be admitted. So starting as a premed at Cornell you have about a 14% chance of getting admitted to med school while in college where your chances are the highest. I would venture to guess your chances starting as a non-science major are much lower as most will drop out by the time they get to orgo.
[/quote]
</p>
<p>Let's go over this again:
1. You either have senior applicants (the ones who are "on track" and alumni applicants). Like I said, 200 senior applicants, 470 total applicants. The roughly 1:1 ratio you see at most schools.</p>
<ol>
<li><p>Cornell's numbers took a slight dip last year. But, if you look at the previous few years, you will see that it's acceptance rate is 75-80% typically. About what you expect for a school of its caliber (for reference, Duke is at 85%, Amherst at 79%, Princeton at 93%, Harvard at 90%+).</p></li>
<li><p>What is this "premed advising" you speak of? The Cornell data is very complete. Everyone who applies to med school registers with the committee, pays the $190, receives a personal interview, and gets a letter of rec. Whether they decide to consult the premed advisors in their own time is up to them. The Cornell data essentially includes every senior who applied in that year, minus the URM's. </p></li>
<li><p>1000 premeds start. 470 eventually apply to med school. If we assume a 75% acceptance rate, then roughly 1/3 of freshman premeds end up becoming doctors. THAT IS VERY GOOD.</p></li>
</ol>
<p>I still don't understand why you see a) people who change their minds about medicine and b) people who took time off as signs of weakness. People change their minds about their careers all the time, especially college students. It doesn't necessarily have anything to do with grades. Medicine is a profession going downhill right now. People are going to realize that sooner or later.</p>
<p>Secondly, people also take time off for various reasons, again, not just because of academics. Some of the weakest students but also some of the strongest students take time off (to complete Rhodes, Marshall, Fulbright Fellowships, or Peace Corps, etc.). I personally had a 3.9 w/ a 37 MCAT but I took a year off to do a fellowship at the NIH cuz I wanted to. </p>
<p>You are looking at these two things as signs of weakness when you need to realize that it's an amazing thing that people are pursuing their true interests (whether it's medicine or not). </p>
<p>BTW: The Cornell data only includes allopathic schools and does not count all of the applicants who got into Carib or DO schools, which considering the physician shortage, are beginning to comprise a larger and larger proportion of medical students.</p>