predicted cut off for the class of 2017

I’m still struggling to figure out how to get an actual “score” from a raw test score for the new PSAT. Prepscholar had some interesting info on their Blog, even estimates on a the class of 2017 cut off by state (based on last year’s numbers converted to the new 1600 score). According to their predictions TX will be at 1450. I’m not sure how accurate this will prove to be but at least it puts the new scoring format into perspective. I can’t post a link but if you should be able google it: How to Become a National Merit Semi Finalist prepscholar blog.

Scroll down on the page for the comparison chart old score cut off /new score cut off by state.

http://blog.prepscholar.com/national-merit-semifinalist

Here it is.

What we don’t know and will not know until next September (?) is how National Merit will use the scores. Back in my day (in the late 80s), when the writing and reading were called Verbal, National Merit doubled the Verbal score and added the math to determine cut offs. This was done to increase the number of female qualifiers. Once they broke Verbal in two, they didn’t need to do that anymore. I have to believe they will go back to a similar formula as in the 80s, etc. to keep the numbers of female students in the range.

Has anyone seen anything on this yet? The prepscholar blog seems to be ignoring that issue and converting to a 1600 scale.

I wonder if they will simply double the verbal section, add it to the math and divide by ten to get back to the current 240 scale? That would work, right?

@Ynotgo @gettingschooled
I just called the the National Merit office and asked about how the new PSAT scores were going to be evaluated and was told they are still working with the College Board on that but if he had to guess, he said they were just going to take the total score weighting both sections the same. The official word will be printed in the Student’s Guide the SAT that will be available from the student’s GC’s office in late September or early October (yes, I did remind him that the test is in mid October!) I wonder how far in advance they have to go to print on an order that size?

I also verified that the PSAT is on a 1520 scale, please accept my apology for posting information stating it is on the 1600 scale. Since Prepscholar’s blog incorrectly lists that the PSAT is on the 1600 scale their predicted cut off are likely incorrect as well. @chengallen you might want to correct that!

First I have heard about a 1520 scale! I am going to have to get up to speed on that.

I am glad that I have a year to figure this out.

I’m also a junior and I’m worried. Did you guys find out what the cutoffs for NMS are? If so what’s Maryland’s cutoff? Man it sucks to reside in MD, cuz now I have to score higher lolz. Only thing holding me back I believe is the verbal section because I don’t know how to improve on it.

@3scoutsmom, thank you for this info. I’m really having trouble interpreting all this. Sounds like the NMS selection index does an equal weighting of reading, writing, and math, but the new PSAT does equal weighting of math at 50% and writing+reading at 50%. Without regard to the NMS contest, do you know if the old PSAT equal weighted each section when compiling the total score -therefore the PSAT is making a substantial change in how it weights the sections for the total score?

I can’t believe more of these sites with ‘predictive scores’ for the NMS Class of 2017 cutoffs have not yet updated based on this information. I know that you linked to an official doc from college board, but have you seen any documentation from the NMS people that confirms they are equal weighting the sections for cutoff qualification vs using the new PSAT total score?

@suzyQ7 NM has used the score Index in the past but it has always been equivalent to the score. This year it is possible for one student to have a higher score and not make the cut because they have a lower selection score Index. http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-act-tests-test-preparation/1815026-important-psat-nmsqt-scoring-information-for-the-new-psat-and-national-merit.html#latest

So, @3scoutsmom Prepscholar lists the estimate as a raw score, not selection index (from what I can see). If NMS is determined by selection index, score is somewhat irrelevant, no?

Actually the score index was calculated similar to this before the separate writing was added in 2005. They used to double the verbal score and add it to the math, which is essentially what they are doing here. So there is precedent for this, and yes it makes the reading and writing scores more important.