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According to Thomas Sowell, graduation rates are much lower for URMs because they are "mismatched", that their ability is slightly lower than what is needed. Had they gone to a slightly easier institution they would have been more successful. Also, a study of law schools showed that URMs admitted under AA tended to do worse in classes and thus had a lower BAR passing rate.
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<p>According to the Journal of Blacks in Higher Education </p>
<p>Graduation rates play an important role in measuring the success of affirmative action programs. Many opponents of affirmative action assert, often without even looking at the actual data, that black student graduation rates are damaged by race-sensitive admissions. It is critical to review the statistics to see if this is true. For this reason, in this report we emphasize the graduation rates of black students at the nation's highest-ranked colleges and universities. Almost always these are the institutions that have the strongest commitment to race-sensitive admissions.</p>
<p>Academically selective institutions are almost always strongly committed to affirmative action in admissions, yet at the same time they tend to deliver a high black student graduation rate. Obviously, this undercuts the assertion made by many conservatives that black students admitted to our most prestigious colleges and universities under race-conscious admissions programs are incapable of competing with their white peers and should instead seek admissions at less academically rigorous schools. </p>
<p>Nearly 19 out of every 20 black students who enter the highly competitive academic environment of Harvard, Princeton, Haverford, and Amherst go on to earn their diplomas. Other academically demanding colleges do very well, although not as well as these four. </p>
<p>Sixteen other highly competitive colleges and universities turn in black student graduation rates of 85 percent or more. They are Wellesley College, Williams College, Brown University, Davidson College, Colgate University, Duke University, Northwestern University, Swarthmore College, Wesleyan University, Yale University, Georgetown University, Stanford University, Washington University, Dartmouth College, Columbia University, and the University of Virginia</p>