Prognosis of Class of 2017-SCEA-Admission Statistics

Colleges and Universities A-Z Princeton University
1

<p>Good morning!
I have actually been reading through a lot of articles on numbers and facts regarding last year's admission statistics, the reduced class size for coming years, and the increased SCEA applicant pool.</p>

<p>I thought I could try to use the numbers available to calculate the probable number of admissions that are going to be given out by Princeton for SCEA-applicants this year. Although mathematically likely, no one for sure knows what decisions Princeton has drawn from last year's introduction of SCEA. Personally, I find an admission rate for SCEA-Applicants of 14% quite low. But see for yourself...</p>

<p>Facts gathered online
[ul]
[li]Target Size for Class of 2017: [/li]
```

1,290



SOURCE: [Following</a> overshoot, U. to decrease class size slightly for next three years - The Daily Princetonian](<a href="http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2012/10/04/31386/%5DFollowing">http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2012/10/04/31386/) - 1st paragraph
[li]Number of SCEA-Applicants for 2017: [/li]

3,791



SOURCE: [Princeton</a> early admission applications jump 10 percent - The Daily Princetonian](<a href="http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2012/11/17/31858/%5DPrinceton">http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2012/11/17/31858/) - 1st paragraph
[li]Target % of SCEA-Applicants enrolling in Class of 2016: [/li]

31 - 36



SOURCE: [726</a> offered early admission - The Daily Princetonian](<a href="http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2011/12/16/29701/%5D726">http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2011/12/16/29701/) - 2nd paragraph
[li]Yield of SCEA-Applicants for Class of 2016: [/li]

86



SOURCE: [Updated:</a> U. overshoots Class of 2016 by more than 50 students - The Daily Princetonian](<a href="http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2012/05/14/30977/%5DUpdated:">http://www.dailyprincetonian.com/2012/05/14/30977/) - 4th paragraph
[/ul]</p>

<p>**Assuming target % of SCEA-Applicants making up the Class of 2016 and the yield of SCEA-Applicants remains identical for this year, it leads to the following calculations for admission rates:**
[ul]
[li]Target # of SCEA-Applicants enrolling in Class of 2017: 1,290 * 31% // 1,290 * 36% = [/li]

400 - 464



[li]Number of SCEA-Applicants receiving admission to Class of 2017: 400/0.86 // 464/0.86 = [/li]

465 - 539



[li]% of SCEA-Applicants receiving admission to Class of 2017: 465/3,791 // 539/3,791 = [/li]

12.2% - 14.2%



[/ul]</p>

<p>**Explanation: Why is the number of admissions so much lower than last year?**
Although reduced class size is a factor, the main reason for the reduced number of admissions lies in the margin between last year's

expected


 SCEA-admitted-applicants' yield and the

actual


 SCEA-admitted-applicants' yield.
Princeton wanted SCEA-admitted-applicants to make up roughly 1/3 of the Class of 2016 (~430 students). They admitted 726 SCEA-applicants to Princeton. Obviously, this means that they expected a yield/enrollment rate of 430/726 ~= 60%. As it turned out, enrollment rate for SCEA-applicants was actually 86%.
This year round, Princeton will probably have adjusted their expectations for SCEA-admitted-applicants enrollment and knowing that it is much higher than 60%, it seems likely that they will only hand out fewer admission. <a href="See%20sources%20for%20these%20numbers%20in%20FACT%20section%20above">size=-2</a>[/size]</p>

<p>

BUT...


 do not forget that it is very well possible, that they increase the ratio of SCEA-applicants to RD-applicants in favor of the EA-applicants. That would mean more class-enrollment-spots for SCEA applicants and thus lead to more admissions offered. All in all, don't panic! No one actually knows what is going on behind the curtains of the Admission Offices and I am well assured that they have already found a good way to handle the situation.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;**So now that you have seen the maths based on last year's statistics, ...**
...let's all make each other even more crazy and worried about admission by shouting out some random reasons why Princeton will admit even fewer students this year.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;I'll start: I have heard that they are also reducing class size by 15 students due to a number of broken beds in Rockefeller College that gave in during last month's dorm parties.&lt;/p&gt;
2

<p>Looking at your predicted target numbers, this is my perspective:</p>

<p>Princeton is an Ivy League school, so naturally they want to be as selective as possible with a high percentage of the accepted students enrolling. If they discover that 86% of accepted SCEA applicants will enroll, Princeton will be able appear even more selective. </p>

<p>1369 students were accepted from RD last year and 726 were accepted from SCEA.</p>

<p>If 86% enrolled from SCEA, that is about 624 students out of the total class of 1,357. That leaves 733 students who enrolled from RD.</p>

<p>Out of the 1369 students accepted from RD, only 53.5% enrolled. That is 32.5% less than SCEA.</p>

<p>So my question for you is, why would they reduce the number of SCEA applicants that they accept? If anything, they will reduce the number of RD applicants that they accept. By accepting more SCEA applicants and less RD applicants, Princeton can lower their admissions percent even more.</p>

<p>Sources:
<a href=“Princeton offers admission to 7.86 percent of applicants”>Princeton offers admission to 7.86 percent of applicants;
<a href=“Tilghman asks new students to 'occupy' Princeton and serve the greater good”>Tilghman asks new students to 'occupy' Princeton and serve the greater good;

3

<p>I don’t think they give a **** about “selectivity” and “admissions percent” as much as schools with something to prove like Columbia do. I just believe the SCEA admission rate last year was too high so it resulted in overenrollment.</p>

4

<p>Their selectivity is part of what makes them prestigious, and SCEA is a way to make sure they won’t lose students to Harvard or Yale.</p>

<p>Obviously the over enrollment was caused by the high admission rate. I’m trying to be optimistic for SCEA applicants. It wasn’t necessarily the SCEA admission rate that was too high; if they accepted less RD applicants they would not have had over enrollment. </p>

<p>Either way, I’m sure they will have it figured out since it’s the second year they have offered the option of SCEA.</p>

5

<p>Admissions will certainly adjust a few of their strategies based on the class of 2016’s over-enrollment. While the numbers may be slightly reduced in terms of offers initially, I am doubtful that the SCEA admissions offers will go as low as the OP projected for a couple reasons. One is that a large number of the students offered admission SCEA will undoubtedly be recruited athletes who Princeton will not want to lose to other schools. The second is that there will also be a number of outstanding students in the SCEA pool that they will offer admission to for the same reason. </p>

<p>I had not heard about the broken beds in Rockefeller before the OP, and while it makes for an interesting college party story, I really would be shocked if it in any way affected the number of places they offer to incoming students, beyond the original plan to reduce the class size by 18 students. It’s Princeton - if beds break they will buy new ones.</p>

6

<p>of the 726 SCEA acceptees last year (or the 624 yield), does anyone know how many were recruited athletes at Princeton?</p>

7

<p>According to a report from forbes.com, 19.7% of the undergraduate student body in 2010 were varsity athletes: </p>

<p>[#2</a> Princeton University - Forbes.com](<a href=“Forbes List Directory”>Forbes List Directory) </p>

<p>Based on 4878 students in the undergraduate body in 2010 that would translate to 961 undergraduate students, or 240 freshman students, all things being equal. The undergraduate population has since increased since then to over 5100. Most varsity athletes would compete at a high enough level to be recruited, I believe. I can’t find any reports where Princeton clearly discloses the number of varsity athletes admitted.</p>

8

<p>As a member of the glorious Rockefeller College, I can attest to the fact that we party hard. </p>

<p>That said, I know nothing of broken beds.</p>

9

<p>actually varsity athletes =/= recruited athletes. Examples: sprint football, both heavy and light crew. Maybe more like 15 percent were good enough to be recruited?</p>

10

<p>While I would never try to match the analytic abilities of current potential Princeton students, most/all of the approx 240 recruited athletes in the 2017 class will be accepted via SCEA.</p>

11

<p>I don’t know if they’ll accept significantly less SCEA. Their admitted numbers might drop to like a high 600, but chances are they’ll just admit less regular to account for their over enrollment last year.</p>

12

<p>Yay I was right</p>

13

<p>@decillion…lol! =)</p>

14

<p>how will the waitlist factor into all of this…?</p>