<p>Thanks everyone for the replies! Going to talk to him tonight and see if he wants to do the March one (and actually study some for it) or the January one (and pay the extra $27 but get it out of the way earlier). Yes, he has a 3.98 unweighted, no discipline problems, ranked 2/450 in his class, etc. Been accepted already to MIT and Caltech - and both they (and his safeties) don’t offer NM money (for obvious reasons), but it seems like it’s worth the $50 to at least have a chance at one of the $2500 scholarships.</p>
<p>One other question - how does location figure in if you move? Part of the reason for him applying to college early was because of a job loss/change (my husband is currently living in another state while we stay here to let him finish out this year). If we move to another state (Indiana) next summer, which standards would he be held to? He wouldn’t actually even be living there (unless he ends up at Purdue - his main safety) and it doesn’t look like the scores would make that much difference there, but would this somehow mess up the system? Thanks again!</p>
<p>* Yes, he has a 3.98 unweighted, no discipline problems, ranked 2/450 in his class, etc. Been accepted already to MIT and Caltech - and both they (and his safeties) don’t offer NM money (for obvious reasons), but it seems like it’s worth the $50 to at least have a chance at one of the $2500 scholarships.</p>
<p>*</p>
<p>So, your son is graduating a year early?</p>
<p>Keep in mind that the 2500 scholarship will usually get applied to his “determined need.” It won’t reduce your “family contribution” unless your contribution is “full freight”. It gets sent to the school, and the school applies it to need. </p>
<p>*One other question - how does location figure in if you move? Part of the reason for him applying to college early was because of a job loss/change (my husband is currently living in another state while we stay here to let him finish out this year). If we move to another state (Indiana) next summer, which standards would he be held to? He wouldn’t actually even be living there (unless he ends up at Purdue - his main safety) and it doesn’t look like the scores would make that much difference there, but would this somehow mess up the system? Thanks again! *</p>
<p>The cutoff is based on the state where he took his PSAT. You will have to notify NMCorp that your son graduated early so that they will know how to contact your son and have him do the NMSF paperwork.</p>
<p>Thanks for the assistance. Yes, he’s graduating a year early and we’ll keep NMCorp informed. Unfortunately we’re still in the midst of working on FAFSA/CSS forms so I don’t know yet if we’ll be full-pay or not. We weren’t last year with my older son, but with the change in the financial situation this year I don’t know what to expect. Older son is also on a full ROTC scholarship so I’m not sure how that affects this son. At this point we just have to wait and see how all the FA plays out but anything may end up being helpful. Thanks also on the location info - that’s what I would have figured but wanted to make sure!</p>
<p>We live in TX, one of the states that had a 4 pt jump up in the cutoffs last year. Do cutoffs usually stay “up” once they make that jump? TX had been 215 for many years and went to 219 last year. DD got a 216 and wondering if there’s even a chance for hope…?</p>
<p>I think it is most likely that the TX cutoff will be 216, since the curve is about three points lower than last year. I seriously doubt it will be 219.</p>
<p>squidge: Texas jumping 4 points last year was odd. It’s an example of why you can’t predict these things with certainty. But cutoffs go both up and down (with a general, but slight, upward trend due to increases in the number of test takers over time). </p>
<p>2010 was a spike year and so there will be downward pressure on every state with respect to the 2011 test. The last time we had a spike year similar to 2010 was the 2005 test (taken by 2007 graduates). The year after the spike there were big drops. Here’s a sample of the drops in cutoffs experienced by some of the larger states like Texas the year after the spike:</p>
<p>clapuma I love ya I know we won’t know til Sept, but you gave us something to hang on to between now and then. Fingers crossed for a 3 pt drop in TX…</p>
<p>Somebody explain this to me! National Merit is the top 1% in your state, right? The scores already say what your percentiles are, so why is the “cutoff score” even relevant? Does that include scores for students who are not “eligible” for national merit? And, if you scored high and you do not receive notification of commended status in April, doesn’t that mean you are a semi-finalist? My son’s scores say his percentiles are 98,97,99…which I think means he must have just missed the cutoff. Last year’s cutoff score was 219 (in Texas)…his score was 218, so I think all we can do is pray for it to drop one point.</p>
<p>National merit doesn’t release their methodology but other posters believe that one of the ways they determine the # of NMSF per state is tied to that states % of HS graduates compared to the national # of HS graduates. </p>
<p>All 50,000 top PSAT scorers get letters in April (future NMSFs & commended.)</p>
<p>I believe it is the top 1/2 of one percent of high school graduates in a state that qualify for semifinalist designation. It could not be the top 1 percent, since 211 is 99 percentile nationally and 211 is well above the 99 percentile fo TX.</p>
<p>No, it is not the top 1% in each state. The 16K semi-finalists are about 1% of eligible testtakers, but those 16K students are spread among the states based on the population of HS graduates in each state. </p>
<p>Due to differences in the ratio of PSAT test-takers to HS graduates in a given state the percentage of test-takers who make semi-finalist for one state or another can vary substantially - in 2009 it ranged anywhere from 0.59% (in Maine) to 3.4% (in Utah). (TX was .77%). But those percentages don’t tell you the cutoff because that depends on the overall performance of the students who took the test in the state. </p>
<p>Also, you cant just average the state percentiles on each section to compute a percentile at the selection index level. Students are typically stronger in one section of the test or the other. The top 1 percent of students for math are a very different mix of students than the top 1 percent for critical reading. It is the rarer student who can get high scores on all three sections. </p>
<p>myuusmeow: 215 is an amazing score, well into the 99th percentile nationally. It likely would have qualified you for semi-finalist in all but about 10 states this year. Although CA has a higher cutoff than most others (due to the flukey way the NMSC allocates the semi-finalist designation), that doesn’t take away from your accomplishments and abilities. Keep up the good work and you’ll have your pick of college and scholarship opportunities.</p>
<p>Does anyone know the meaning of ‘99+’ percentile used by NMSC? I understand 99th percentile but haven’t seen an exact explanation of the ‘+’. Is that 99.5, 99.9 or something else? Doesn’t really matter but I am curious.</p>
<p>99+ indicates a score in the >= 99.5 percentile. In other words closer to 100th% (but of course, not at 100th% as there are multiple ceiling scores achieved) than to 99th%</p>
<p>This is great info. Quick question - the National report shows percentiles for the entire selection index - in other words, what % is your total score nationally - but it looks like the only info you can get for your state is the % for each area? Doesn’t look like state by state percentiles for the selection index/total score is published anywhere?</p>
I know we won’t know til Sept, but you gave us something to hang on to between now and then. Fingers crossed for a 3 pt drop in TX…</p>