<p>alright so i was attempting to analyze the information found in @RobD’s link to answer my own question, but I’m still pretty lost.
I got a 74/70/67 (211) on the psat and i’m from pennsylvania. last year’s cutoff was 215, and from what i somehow calculated was that scores went down by .2%? I’m pretty positive that my math is off, but if anyone’s willing to assist…? :]</p>
<p>@silencefell: </p>
<p>Heres my trend analysis for Pennsylvania. Ive include the average # of PA students in the top 2 scoring ranges (75-80 and 70-74) for the three sections because its cutoff has been lower than some of the top states. PA results are compared to the 99% selection index cutoff nationally.</p>
<p>Yr… avg # in top 2 ranges (chg)…PA cutoff (chg)…99% cutoff natl [chg]</p>
<p>2007…1761…213…212
2008…1960 (+11.3%)…214 (+1)…212 [0]
2009… 2205 (+12.5%)…216 (+2)…212 [0]
2010…1833 (-16.87%)…215 (-1)…214 [+2]
2011…1765 (-3.67%)…TBD (TBD)…211 [-3]</p>
<p>As you can see, PA has not followed the national trend that well as of late. Its cutoff went up in 2008 and 2009 even though the national 99% cutoff was unchanged. And in 2010, PAs cutoff went down, even though the national 99% cutoff jumped +2. </p>
<p>While the average # of PA students in the top ranges is down for 2011 (similar to the national trend), it is not down by much. So it may be difficult for the PA cutoff to drop by the 4 points you need to qualify for NMSF. However, there is one factor that might give you some hope. For some reason, the number of test takers in PA dropped by surprising 5% in 2011. That anomaly could cause the PA cutoff to drop by more than might otherwise be predicted. </p>
<p>In any event, 211 is a great score and should be at least commended. Congratulations!</p>
<p>@clapuma: Do you know if high schools release a stundent’s PSAT rank at the school? In other words, can and do GCs tell you how many students did better than you on the PSAT at a given school? </p>
<p>I know CB provide a school percentile rank with the SAT, but for some reason, not for the PSAT.</p>
<p>@perazziman: I’ve never heard of info like that being released, but it would be interesting. Perhaps others know.</p>
<p>To Clapuma and other experts: Considering California’s 221 cutoff last year, can I expect to advance with a 221 this year? It seems like the cutoff will drop, but is there any likelihood that it rises?</p>
<p>Although anything’s possible, I wouldn’t expect Calif cutoff to rise another point this year. It’s risen a lot these last few years and I’d think it would stay in one spot or even go down a spot this year.</p>
<p>@Loncria: all signs point to a drop in the cutoff for California this year. Nothing’s certain, but the odds are good for you with a 221. </p>
<p>By the way, what were your section scores (CR,M,W) and what was the CA state percentiles for those sections?</p>
<p>The breakdown are CR:66, Math:80 and Writing:75. I’m not sure how to check state percentile’s, but on my Score Report Plus it says that my math and writing are in the 99% of juniors while my CR is in the 94%. BTW, I appreciate the help mom2collegekids and clapuma.</p>
<p>Just a quick update from my question a couple pages back. We decided to have my son take the SAT for the NM scholarship consideration and since none of the future dates worked with his schedule, we paid the late fee and he took the January test. Just got his scores back and with about an hour of studying total (I at least wanted him to have a feel for how many sections there were, how long they were, and what kind of questions were asked vs. the ACT), he got a 2360! (800 Math, 800 Writing, 760 CR). Think that should “validate” his PSAT scores! ;)</p>
<p>Great scores!</p>
<p>Can you clarify? Are you saying that your son couldn’t take the PSAT on an official date so NMCorp is letting him use a SAT? I know that works if you’re sick, it would be good to know if it also works if you have a date conflict. I know a student who will have a date conflict this next fall with PSAT dates.</p>
<p>No, sorry, guess I should have clarified - I was just letting people know who’d been following. My son had taken the PSAT in October and scored high enough for NMSF most likely (227) but has decided in the meantime to graduate a year early. He’s already gotten a 36 ACT and been accepted to his top college choices so wasn’t planning on taking the SAT. I was just letting folks know we did sign him up for the SAT and he took it to verify his scores and be eligible as a NMF/SF down the road, even though it won’t actually be until he’s already at college. Sorry on the confusion!</p>
<p>@Loncria: in order to find the state cutoffs you have to log onto your my college quick start account on the college board site. </p>
<p>Right now, I know that for 2011 at the CA state level a 74 Math is 97% and a 67 Writing is 95% (these scores are 98% and 96% respectively at the national level). I’m trying to collect more data points to determine how different California may be from the national percentiles overall this year.</p>
<p>marciemi…thanks for the clarification.</p>
<p>Great score! Just to clarify to others…you don’t have to validate your specific PSAT score…you just have to get about a 2000…no matter what your PSAT score was.</p>
<p>Let NMCorp know about your son’s plans…he’ll still have to do the NMSF paperwork next fall.</p>
<p>where did you get the data on students scoring above 98 percentile in CA FOR 2011 ? Was NMSF cutoff for CA in 2009 was 219? REFERRING TO YOUR POST#40 thanks.</p>
<p>@curiodr: The data is from a CA student who took the 2011 test. </p>
<p>Also, you are right, there is an error in my post #40 (in the other thread - <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-preparation/1257840-psat-score-199-any-chance-making-commeded-scholar-3.html[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/sat-preparation/1257840-psat-score-199-any-chance-making-commeded-scholar-3.html</a>). There are conflicting posts out there, but it looks like CA’s cutoff in 2009 may have been 219 and 2008 may have been 218. So the better analysis perhaps is as follows:</p>
<p>CA…2010…2838…221 (+2)
CA…2009…2818…219 (+1)*
CA…2008…2307…218</p>
<p>*too high based on national trend</p>
<p>California: The 99+ cutoff dropped a point nationally in 2009, but CA’s NMSF cutoff went up one point (a two point aberration). The fact that CA went up instead of down might have been predicted given CA’s 23% increase in students in the top scoring range from ’08 to ‘09. In 2010, the 99+ cutoff went up 2 points and so CA followed the national trend precisely. </p>
<p>In 2011, the avg # of CA students in the top range dropped from 2838 to 2439 (a 14.1% drop from 2010). So the evidence supports CA dropping this year along with the national trend.</p>
<p>As you can see, the # of students in the top range cannot tell you precisely where the cutoff will go. But after reviewing data from a number of states, I found the # of students in the top ranges to be a good indicator of whether a given state might buck the national trend or not.</p>
<p>clapuma: It says that 66 on the CR is a 93% in CA, while WR and Math at 75 and 80 respectively are still 99%.</p>
<p>Because the number of students scoring in top ranges went down so drastically, is there any way possible that the cutoff would stay the same or even raise? I know for the fact that many of the best students in my highly competitive high school, many who had impressive SAT scores in the 2250+ range, had SAT scores that paled in comparison to their SAT. I’m talking 100+ point discrepancies. Is this any indication that the cutoff is going to drop a lot this year or is this information irrelevant?</p>
<p>Loncria: It’s goot that Math is still 99% at 75. It shows that there wasn’t some huge spike in Math performance in the state this year. If someone could confirm that a 74 or 73 in Math were 99% in CA too, that would be even more comforting.</p>
<p>I don’t know that a comparison to SAT matters, but if the top students in your school had PSAT selection indexes that were lower than those of the top students last year, that would be another good sign.</p>
<p>The truth is, I haven’t been able to poinpoint any one fact or data point that shows for sure where the cutoff will go. One adverse fact is that the # of CA testtakers went up by 3000 over last year (although that is 3K out of 181K). If, for some reason, the number of CA HS graduates drops this year that could hurt as well because CA’s allocation of NM slots could go down. But the overall drop in the number of students achieving top scores this year (both Nationally and in CA) is very favorable. So I think the odds are good that a 221 will qualify for CA this year. We can’t know for sure until the fall.</p>
<p>Clapuma, here are more Oct 2011 CA data points for you: CR 71 = 97%CA & 97%Nat; M 69 = 94%CA & 95%Nat; W 80 = 99%CA & 99%Nat. Do they alter your thinking about the CA cutoff?</p>
<p>Pyrrhic</p>
<p>First an apology. I don’t know where my brain went in #57. All the references to “Math” should be to “Writing.” </p>
<p>In any event, here’s an analysis I undertook using the state level percentiles. We now have the following data points between you, me and longoria:</p>
<p>Section…Score…Known CA Percentile for that Score (Natl % for that score)
CR…71…97% (97%)
CR…66…95% (96%)
Math…74…97% (98%)
Math…69…94% (95%)
W…75…99% (99%)
W…67…95% (96%)</p>
<p>Another way of looking at it is as follows:</p>
<p>Section…Percentile…Known CA Score for that Percentile (Natl Scores in Percentile)
CR…97%…71 (70-71)
CR…93%…66 (none: 65 is 94% & 64 is 92%)
Math…97%…74 (71-72)
Math…94%…69 (67)
W…99%…75 (72-80)
W…95%…67 (65-66)</p>
<p>In looking at these numbers, nothing seems out of the ordinary. It appears that in in these top percentile ranges CA students scored anywhere from 1-3 points higher than those in the equivalent national percentile ranges. </p>
<p>We know from the statistics in the NMSC annual report that usually at least the top 1% of California students (likely closer to 1.25%) will achieve NMSF status. If you add a full 9 points (3 points per section) to the 99% nat’l selection index cutoff (which is 211) you get 220. That suggests you have good odds that a 220 will put you in the top 1% for CA this year, and thus are safely within the cutoff.</p>
<p>This is far from conclusive, but it’s some additional proof that CA will follow the Natl Trend downward.</p>
<p>I have a 216 (75 CR, 66 M, 74 W) in Pennsylvania. Last year the cutoff was 215. Do you think I will make it this year? Also, does being on the actual cutoff number get you Semifinalist?</p>