"I have no horse in this race, but why is it that takes them clear up until next September to announce the SI cutoffs for each state? For those sitting on the ledge with cutting it close SI’s that could really make a difference for merit aid, it really does delay the college process I would think.
Is there a reason that I’m not aware of for the announcements to be withheld for so long? I know I’ve complained a bit on this thread (which is a bit uncharacteristic of me), but why 9 months of waiting?"
@ThinkOn et al: First of all, for those of you thinking that CB is running the NM show - it isn’t. The National Merit Scholarship Corp. (NMSC) is the one to complain about. But why complain? Yes, they already know your state’s cut-off, most likely. It’s a simple sorting exercise. However, they need to do a couple of things first: 1) verify that you are who you say you are and that you really are a US Citizen/permanent resident. Once they establish the Commended Cut-off in March, they will send your principals a letter asking them to verify all that. Turnaround there takes several weeks to a few months. 2) Very important when YOU become an NMSF next year: They need to complete the current competition. Right now they are working through the applications sent in by the fall 2017 batch of NMSF kids. Then, they turn to awarding scholarship money. Only after completing all of that do they turn their attention toward YOU. So the next time you would like to complain about how slow NMSC is, remember that you’ll probably want them to take their time when they are looking at your stuff so that no mistakes are made. And believe me, enough slow administrators at the school level can really slow the process down (and that happens every year). Finally, everyone assumes that NMSC is staffed with thousands of professionals just poring through this stuff - it isn’t. And they have to spend a lot of time fielding calls from anxious parents and students, many of whom are truly banking on the possibility of getting college money. They are always very polite, helpful and patient. So please have some patience for them in return.
@WGSK88 where are you getting that Illinois info? Everything I’ve read says the cut off is likely to remain 221 or maybe go up to 222. You are the only person thinking it would go to 223. Very few states are that high and Illinois has never been one of the states with the highest cut off.
@homerdog As I stated based on the real data from my son’s school. If you missed my posting or I am not sure you are referring to that post I just did few minutes back. Take my word, IL will be 223… No way it will be 221.
@GeometryForLife - Look at the actual data of my previous post which I don’t want to repeat. Basically this School can’t jump from 14 NMSF (Class of 2018) to 29 NMSF (Class of 2019) if cut-off is to stay at 221 for class of 2019. Simple statistics. Yes it could be wrong. But very unlikely 29 NMSF’s from this School which had 10 and 14 from the new PSAT 1520 based score in the last 2 years!
Our IL suburban high school has decent fluctuation on the number of NMF each year. We had 20 for class of 2018, 27 for class of 2017, and 21 for class of 2016. Not sure a jump in semifinalist at one high school is any predictor. There’s only one state that has a cut off of 223. I can’t imagine Illinois would go from 219 to 223 in two years.
And how does anyone know how many kids are above 221 at their high school? I highly doubt guidance counselors are running around giving real numbers like that. Our school would never disclose that.
@homerdog You are basing the cutoff from class of 2018 (only one state has a cutoff 223)? Are you sure that will be the case for class of 2019 as well?
@ILBHHS Yes it could be 222 but most unlikely. Yes if this School have 10 or more students scored 221, then good chance it could be 222 as well. Based on previous records, I feel similar scores are even rather than odd. I might be wrong.
I don’t know how Art Sawyer gets his data or what it looks like, but he thinks the cutoff for IL will stay at 221, with an estimated range from 219-222. I don’t always agree with him, but my guess is that it’s more likely to go down than up.
@ILBHHS yes IL had been always odd since new score introduced. Also, 220 this School had 5 including my son. So, unless the School has lot of students with 221 then, yes 222 is likely also for IL. Hopefully some other school can share the data to confirm it.
@WGSK88 How do you know who got what at your high school? Was there an email sent out to parents? Like I said, there’s no way we could get that info and I don’t see why a school would share it. It’s kind of personal. Not anyone’s business how many kids scored a certain way.
Generally, I think % is a better predictor. Look at %. Go to SAT percentile results. Cross-reference. (cause your kid will have more school under their belt when they take the “real” SAT, so if they were in the 90% of kids taking PSAT, it’s fairly reasonable they’ll stay in that range for the SAT. (but one caveat - PSAT scores seem to fluctuate more than SAT for kids.)
Our 1st kid was a 90-95% in the 10th and 11th PSAT (but with very different breakouts each time), and after some focussed SAT test prep on her own hit 97-98% on old SAT and exactly same on ACT (2190/33)
Our kid did two sets of not very effective test prep before they realized they only needed to study what they were repeatedly getting wrong. So they took 2 serious timed practice tests, had their 2 Psats and 1st SAT and a previous serious timed practice. They pulled out all the wrong or guessed at answers and just studied those areas. Pumped their (old) SAT by 70-80 points with this strategy fwiw.
Happy Dad! S19 got a 1510 - SI 226!! Nice to not have to worry about any cutoffs. We are in OK (had a friend in CO get his numbers), so it will likely be 216 or so. He is in the clear! Also nice to know he would have gotten NMSF no matter what state he was in.
My son took his SAT in August and scored 1550. Based on that I thought he would score around 1490 or so in his PSAT. He got 1470 (760 math, 710 RW) with a selection index of 218. My daughter, an NMS scholar in 2016, actually had 1490 with a selection index of 223 (her r/w was very strong). I think he will get commended but he was disappointed. I think he got a little complacent when taking the PSAT.