Is there a place where you can see how many kids from your high school are NMSFs?
@citymama9 I’ve googled it and seen list that the state issues. Probably depends on the state but I’ve seen it for several states (listing by HS NMSF).
State: Texas.
I got a 740 in both M and R/W for 1480 total. 222 index. Last’s years cutoff was 221, and it’s predicted to go up this year to 222. Really worried, :-SS as I really want to qualify as a NMSF. Parents were really gunning for me to do well, and I sorta feel like I let them down.
Practice tests at home placed me at 1500 and a 1510. The actual test, however… I live in a small town where nobody really cares much about this type of thing. Classmates’ indifference really irritated me and every time the proctor called out “5 minutes left”, my mind basically went blank and I forgot how to read English.
Any advice/comfort?
@go4gift, I am sure your parents are very proud of you! My kid is in 9th grade. I can tell you if she puts the time in and does her best I will be incredibly proud of her. My fingers are crossed for you.
Great score, @go4gift. More will be known once the commended number comes out in the spring; however, for now you are probably in good shape for NMSF. Hopefully it’ll happen and your classmates will be incredibly proud and impressed. And their parents will be elbowing them with a “why didn’t YOU win that?” look. Sweet revenge!
Not to jump too ahead of the game but you might want to be sure that the principal and counselors are up on the National Merit competition, esp. if they aren’t used to seeing semi-finalists or commendeds at the school. If you are named as an SF you will definitely need their assistance come Sept., and even as early as next spring they will get a head’s up on you and be asked to verify your status as a 3rd year student and US citizen, etc. (this list is sent once the commended number is established and will include all who are at that commended cut-off and higher). If you schedule a meeting now with your counselor or even just send an e-mail about “what should be the next step” (thereby tipping them off that you know you are in the running), you stand a much greater chance of everything going smoothly next year. And if you happen to find that they are just clueless about the competition, you would then have plenty of time to get them up to speed.
Good luck to you!
hi my daughter got 219 FL. is there any chances to be in?
Anybody have any thoughts on SI for Iowa? I got a 710/740 and 216 SI which was the cutoff last year. Sorta nervous.
What time do the scores post in the morning?
@crazy43 mine came out at 10. Good luck!
Congrats to all who have SI scores well above cutoffs. So proud of my DS for his 221 but he is only one point above last year’s CO cutoff of 220 so it will be a long 9 months or so. And since he was focusing on ACT he will now have to SAT prep just in case.
@mountainmomof3 He’s actually in a great position. Not likely it goes to 222.
@moscott Thanks! Fingers crossed as he is willing to be very flexible in looking at schools with merit.
@go4gift Go up ?? I’ve been hearing the opposite :)) but you and I both are in the same situation so let’s cross our fingers regardless :-<
@vxia12371 I also took it on the alternate day and it came out on the expected date 
Maybe it’s a school problem ???
:
The data presented by @WGSK88 looks strange. It’s interesting, maybe, but it means little, because, well, statistics.
About 38,000 Illinois students take the PSAT in Illinois from about 1,500 schools. The results from one single school are hardly a representative sample. In fact, they are a single data point, and it is impossible to identify a trend from a single data point.
Also, that trend is not reflected in the national trend. If we compare the countrywide PSAT cut off scores for the 99th percentile between the past three years:
Total score:
2015 - 1390
2016 - 1450
2017 - 1450
Math:
2015 - 740
2016 - 750
2017 - 750
Evidence-Based
Reading and Writing :
2015 - 700
2016 - 730
2017 - 730
We see the large increase in the cut-off score between 2015 and 2016 (as the new PSAT was adjusted), which resulted in an up to 3 point increase in SI. However, there is no such increase between 2016 and 2017. Yes, PSAT score ≠ SI, and state trends can differ from national ones, but large states tend to match national trends, and Illinois is large.
A change of one point either way is very possible, but larger than that? Unlikely.
True, @WGSK88 could be right, however, that would be no more than a lucky guess, not an evidence-based prediction that was proven to be accurate.
Yes, I have taught statistics.
@MWolf The 2017 User percentiles are fake. The fall 2017 percentiles are not actual; instead, they are based on actual results from fall 2015 (which was notoriously too easy) and fall 2016 (which was easier than this year’s test):
https://collegereadiness.collegeboard.org/pdf/psat-nmsqt-understanding-scores.pdf
In the big picture, the reading curve was about the same as 2016 but the reading section was harder. My guess is that cutoffs may go down.
(And FYI for anyone who doesn’t know, just a note that the “National” percentiles are irrelevant. The User percentiles are what matter.)
@evergreen5 I find that crazy. Why wouldn’t the CB be able to give correct percentiles for the 2017 kids? Am I missing something? Why can’t they just use the data in front of them and figure out percentiles for that test? I assume that’s what they need to do in order to decide on SI cut offs for each state. Maybe it takes them until September to do the math? Weird.
@homerdog I believe it’s always been done that way. However, there may have been much more consistency prior to the introduction of the New test, back when it was written by ETS (a while back, there was some mention that CB had ended its contract with ETS such that CB was writing the New test itself and currently the ETS role is unclear). It seems to me to be an easy way to fudge differences in scoring - we will never see actual 2017 percentiles if, next fall, the 2018 Understanding Scores document has the 2017 percentiles mixed with actual for 2015 and 2016.
I believe the SI cutoffs are determined by the NM organization rather than CB.
@evergreen5 Understood that NM organization determines the cutoffs. Do they do so by just looking at the top scorers and then taking the top x number for each state? We are in Illinois and the state gets something like 750 NMSF. Do you think NM org gets a list of the scores and then just looks down the list to the 750 marker and then chooses that score as the cut off?
I understand that it can’t always be an exact number and maybe they have to take a little fewer or a little more kids if there’s a glut of a certain score around that 750 mark.
@homerdog My rough understanding is that it’s a little more complicated - yes, NM has to do it by state, but then needs confirmation paperwork from high school principals on eligibility (e.g. grade level, citizenship) such that ineligible students would then get kicked out of the list, I suppose.