Also the numbers per state varies from year to year and is based on the number of high school graduates from that state last year.
@evergreen5 I see. So maybe NM estimates the cut off and then waits for the paperwork to see how many kids are ineligible and then maybe has to change the cut off if there are a bunch of ineligible kids. I cannot imagine why someone would take the test who is ineligible though. Schools should just make sure kids are eligible when they take the test. Or maybe some sophs take it and they have to be taken out if they are above cut off. Sounds like such an antiquated system having to wait for paperwork from thousands of principals. I can’t even get ours to return a phone call…
“Am I missing something? Why can’t they just use the data in front of them and figure out percentiles for that test? I assume that’s what they need to do in order to decide on SI cut offs for each state. Maybe it takes them until September to do the math? Weird.”
- NMSC, not CB, determines cut-offs. Looks like that's been settled; however you also need to know that National Merit cut-offs are typically the tippy top of the 1% for the higher-scoring states. For NM, it's not about your percentile - it's about what everyone else in your state did. For commended, it's about what the top 50,000 scorers nationwide did. Regardless of the percentile. You actually don't need a percentile table for the NM contest.
- ALL - repeat, ALL - standardized tests work off curves based on previous administrations of the test. That's true for the revised SAT, the old SAT, the ACT, and any other standardized test you have taken during your school career. How, for instance, do you think those scaled scores are determined? There was a huge problem with the initial PSAT and SAT for the revised test simply because the sample study that CB devised wasn't really indicative of the population taking the exam. Big oopsie. But CB was able to nail down the percentiles much better after March 2016 and there have been dozens of administrations since that date. So percentiles are far more accurate now than they were a few years ago. Not that you need them for NM questions.
@JBStillFlying Understood. Just because a score is in the 99th percentile does not mean the SI attached to it will make the cut off. I guess that’s why the cut off is always so unknown. Plus, kids need to score well in all sections to maximize their SI. A high math score and lower EW score that equals a 99th percentile total can result in a lower SI than the same total score with more equitable section scores.
@homerdog - to maximize the SI, do well on the verbal! It’s weighted 2/3 of the total index.
@homerdog If you want to read more about the percentile topic, Compass had an article around Jan 2016. There are blog entries and a PDF version someplace on the web. Google “Problems with the New PSAT”
@homerdog does this mean that the SAT is also weighted 2/3 towards verbal?
@oak2maple No, the SAT combines reading and writing into a single section three-digit score, EBRW, out of 800 (reminiscent of the “Verbal” score from the old days). Math is also out of 800, for a total possible 1600.
The PSAT also combines reading and writing into a single section, three-digit score, out of 760. Same for math, total possible 760, for total possible 1520.
It is only the Selection Index for National Merit Scholarships that weights reading, writing and math as equal thirds, such that reading and writing are 2/3 of the whole.
Kids take the PSAT to get an idea of what their scores will be for the real deal (SAT). Many have no clue about NMF. I hadn’t ever heard of NMF until I joined CC. But everyone in my grade took the PSAT back in 11th grade. As far as I’m aware, no one for NMF. It was a small school, so I’m sure I would have heard if someone did.
429. I could be wrong but I'm guessing there is no requirement for a school to give the PSAT/NMSQT
@JBStillFlying Yep. That’s the only reason S19 has a chance. Surprised all of us with higher than expected EW with his 1470.
Just looked at percentiles for EW and Math for PSAT 2016 and 2017. I know. I know. Percentiles don’t really matter but this might shed some light. Math was not too different, but look at EW.
PSAT 2016 EW
760 99+
750 99+
740 99
730 99
720 98
PSAT 2017 EW
760 99+
750 99+
740 99+
730 99
720 99
So, I’m not sure if this means possible SI cut off would go up or down, but for the 2017 percentile chart, you could get a 740 and still be at 99+. Or a 720 and be at 99. Those are higher percentiles than the 2016 chart.
@homerdog Presumably the fall 2016 PSAT percentiles were based on actual percentiles from the fall 2015 test, which was reputed to be easy. And we know the fall 2017 percentiles were based on a combination of actual 2015 and 2016 percentiles. All percentiles are older than the test to which they have been applied.
Since the fall 2017 test was harder than 2016, I predict that the 2018 percentiles will go down, though I assume those percentiles will combine actual results from 2015, 2016, and 2017. This all fits with my thinking that the College Board has been trying to make the test harder, with an increase in reading difficulty on the SAT beginning this fall, but doing it in such a way that they hope scores will kinda be comparable, as if no one might notice.
Not sure if this was already mentioned but for determining the SAT qualifying score for NM they do create a selection index just like for the PSAT and for that the verbal is obviously going to count 2/3 of the total. Them’s the rules.
However, for college admission, total score or test scores (ie EBRW vs. Math) will be looked at. No SI.
@JBStillFlying Hmm - I assume most NMSF will have competitive SAT scores but is there a known qualifying/cutoff SAT score to make finalist? This is my first rodeo as oldest is a junior. Asking as he is right on the bubble and now planning to actually study/prep for state-mandated SAT in case he makes the CO cutoff. (Last year was 220 and he is sitting at 221.) He had previously been solely focused on the ACT.
The qualifying SAT for a NMSF to become NMF is the same nationwide. It is the national commended SI, which was 211 this year.
@mountainmomof3 any SAT score with an index at or above the commended cutoff should be fine. We’ll know more about the commended cutoff in March or April.
@mountainmomof3
“The confirming score for the class of 2017 was set at a 209 SAT Selection Index (SSI).”
found by searching for “PSAT National Merit FAQ”.
If the same scores for EBRW and MATH are assumed, that corresponds to about 1400 SAT (700+700), which is not very high when compared to the PSAT cutoff.
He can probably just take the CO state mandated SAT test in April once and be done.
@kcheves @payn4ward @JBStillFlying thanks for the insight – score was not anticipated and all of this is new to me. This CC thread is extremely helpful! Still going to a very long 9 months! 
Get some datas from the college board report for class of 2017
https://research.collegeboard.org/programs/sat/data/2017-sat-suite-annual-report
In top 9 largest states
The desired NMSF is the (Test-takers) x (National NMSF ratio 0.9%)
State, Grade 11 Test-takers, NMSF, Desired NMSF, DIFF, Cutoff, NMSF ratio
CA, 253467, 2050, 2273, -223, 221, 0.81%
TX, 241229, 1340, 2163, -823, 220, 0.56%
NY, 112053, 1010,1004, 6, 219, 0.9%
IL, 95387, 735, 855, -120, 219, 0.77%
FL, 92756, 810, 831, -21, 217,0.87%
NJ, 91213, 520, 817, -297, 222, 0.57%
PA, 83512, 680, 748, -68, 218, 0.81%
MI, 61528, 565, 551, 14, 216, 0.92%
OH, 46188, 615, 414, 201, 217, 1.33%
TOP 9 Grade 11 takers: 1077333(60%), NMSF:8325(52%), Desired NMSF:9661, short: -1336
National TOTAL Grade 11 takers: 1784169 NMSF:16000, 0.9%
No wander the NJ has highest cutoff. It should have more NMSF by the ratio.
The ohio has highest ratio, more than 1%.
I know the NMSC plays the number game every year. one point up or down could cut or add hundreds students in big states. They should balance the numbers for each state.
http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/2023077/psat-nmsqt-class-of-2019/p29#
@ILBHHS what’s a desired NMSF?