Question re: Match vs. Reach

Parents Corner
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<p>I am trying to help my son create his final list of schools as he prepares to enter his senior year. He had a noticeable decline in his GPA junior year (from 4.0 to 3.25), primarily due to an issue in math discussed in a different forum post (search if you're curious). He had a 4.0 until then, and will likely have one again this year, making his unweighted GPA at graduation a 3.8. </p>

<p>Given this decline, I'm no longer certain what can he can consider a reach vs. a match for admissions. I would have previously considered Vanderbilt a good match for him - is it now a reach? Can someone give some guidance please? Stats are below - </p>

<p>Gender, etc: Male, White
Location: Tennessee
Need LOTS of financial aid: 1 parent retired, 1 w/income ~$40m
School: Average to Good: sends a very few top grads to Ivies some years, some to Duke, more to Vandy, Emory, etc., but most go to local directional U or small 4th tier schools.
GPA: 3.75 unweighted
Not sure weighted - school has funky system
Rank: probably outside top 10% - he was top 7% before junior year
ACT - 34 (Math 35, Eng 35, Science 34, Reading 33)</p>

<p>Courses taken or scheduled / Grades -</p>

<p>Freshman:
Engineering Design A
Latin 1 A
Honors English 9 A
ROTC 1 - A
Honors Biology A
Geometry A
Wellness 1 A
Latin II A</p>

<p>Sophomore:
Intermediate Algebra A
Honors Econ / Honors Adv Am Gov't A
Honors Latin III A
Wellness II A
Algebra II A
Adv Sports & Conditioning A
Honors English 10 A
Honors Chemistry A</p>

<p>Junior -
AP Psychology B+ (4 Exam)
AP European History A (3 Exam)
Trig C
Honors Biology II (prereq for AP) A
Honors Physics B+
Pre-Calc C
AP Biology A (5 Exam)
Honors English 11 A</p>

<p>Senior Schedule:
AP Lit & Composition
AP Statistics
AP US History
Honors Philosophy
Honors Chemistry II
Ceramics - (Fine Art requirement)
Advanced Architectural Design</p>

<p>ECs/Awards:</p>

<p>Latin Club - 9, 10 National Latin Exam - Cum Laude
SHOUT: 10, selective community-based student leadership program - 1 of
30 kids chosen from 5 area high schools based on application & interview.
SCOPE: 11, Student Congress on Policies in Education - 1 of 4 students in district chosen to travel to state capitol and attend SCOPE Conference
Beta Club - 10, 11, 12
National Honor Society - 11, 12
FCA 10, 11, 12
Volunteers for various things like Operation Christmas Child, Susan B Komen, etc, but no substantial community service hours
Helps to coach/mentor youth cycling team - involved with recruiting, etc.</p>

<p>Athletics:
School:
Swimming: Varsity Letter 9, 10,11 - state qualifier 9, 10, 11, Regional Champ 11 - Outstanding Male Swimmer - 2009/2010
Captain for 2010-2011 season
Recruitable at all but top Div I Programs
Cross Country 9, 10, 11 - will not run senior year
Tennis - 9
Track & Field - 10
School winner - Wendy's High School Heisman</p>

<p>Outside School:
Cycling: 10,11 Nationally-ranked cyclist (i.e. top 10-ish)
4x State Champion
USA Cycling Selection for National camp at the US Olympic training center
in Colorado Springs, CO - Oct `09
10-30 hours per week depending on schedule - traveling approx 40 weekends
per year for competition</p>

<p>Triathlon - 9, 10, 11 nationally ranked triathlete
2-year Member of USA Triathlon SE Region Junior High Performance Team
Train and compete in 7-9 triathlons per year</p>

<p>Potential Majors- Biology / Neuroscience / Exercise Physiology</p>

<p>Very Tentative List - Need a few more ideas, preferably Southeast but could possibly be talked into maybe OH or PA?</p>

<p>Reaches -
Vanderbilt
Washington & Lee </p>

<p>Matches -
Furman </p>

<p>Safeties - we're pretty good on those.</p>

<p>Thanks for the help!</p>

2

<p>go to ************** and put in his info. It will list his chances by any school you select based on statistics. Doesn’t account for essays, personal story, geographic diversity, etc. But still interesting.</p>

3

<p>didn’t realize other sites were clocked. Try searching for a mychances site.</p>

4

<p>Tulane? Trinity (San Antonio)?
U Pitt would be a match I think.</p>

5

<p>nngmm - I personally like both of those suggestions; however, with 11 and 19 hour driving distances respectively, I don’t think I will be able to interest my son in either. I’m only now getting him to look outside our immediate area. Anything in TN, VA, GA, SC, NC, maybe AL and possibly OH, PA, MD. Pitt is actually one we’ve thought about.</p>

<p>Proudparents - mc.net gives my son an 84.9% chance at Vanderbilt and a 96.6% chance at Washington and Lee. Neither seems reasonable to me, and thus why I’m asking for opinions and suggestions.</p>

<p>Thanks again -</p>

6

<p>Tennessee is a state with some pretty fast swimmers: if he is a Regional Swimmer of the Year, he should have some pretty fast times that might get him recruited at some good academic schools. He might have a hook - that could change the calculation.</p>

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<p>glido - yes, he is being recruited by some pretty good schools for swimming, and some less good ones for cycling (by virtue of which schools actually have varsity cycling.) He’s capable of scoring points in swimming for anyone short of say, Kenyon and comparable schools. He’s also not a year-round swimmer as of yet (only Oct-Feb), so I hesitate to really say what he could swim given the proper training, etc. Tons of potential I think.
However, he’s not major DI caliber at this stage, so the money factor is an issue - he could swim for most DIII schools, but we can’t afford to send him there…</p>

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<p>Since cost is a major factor, look at this thread: <a href=“http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/financial-aid-scholarships/848226-important-links-automatic-guaranteed-merit-scholarships.html?highlight=guaranteed[/url]”>http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/financial-aid-scholarships/848226-important-links-automatic-guaranteed-merit-scholarships.html?highlight=guaranteed&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

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<p>Thanks, Erin’s Dad - I think I have that post memorized! I’m just not sure where to look as far as match schools go, both from an acceptance standpoint and a merit aid one. How big a deal is his grade decline junior year, given that he still has a decent gpa and good test scores? Does that necessarily mean previous matches are now reaches? Should we be looking at much lower-tier schools in order to maximize merit aid?</p>

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<p>ST Bonaventure offered my swimmer a full ride. Also Emory, Case Western, Carnegie Mellon, Wash U are all good swim schools as are a number of smaller d2 schools in Pa. If you are eligible for good financial aid, these are possibilities. Rhodes College is also a consideration.</p>

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<p>Except for that one C, that is a stellar resume. I’d like to think it won’t make a difference.</p>

<p>I would think that Rhodes would be a match.</p>

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<p>U South Carolina offers incredible merit aid…for most name scholarships, in addition to the merit award they also reduce tuition to in state level which can make attendance VERY inexpensive. They also offer a number of full rides and virtual full rides. With your son’s ACT and GPA he would be a very strong candidate for the latter.</p>

<p>[Academic</a> Scholarships](<a href=“Scholarships - Financial Aid and Scholarships | University of South Carolina”>Scholarships - Financial Aid and Scholarships | University of South Carolina)</p>

<p>Their Honors program is terrific and the school on the whole is becoming very hot with students outside SC…its reputation is really on the rise.</p>

13

<p>I love the one saying Rhodes is a match. He is way above the Rhodes profile.</p>

<p>First of all, I don’t think the C’s will hurt him given the rest of his record, but I think as an insurance policy the GC should say something in their attachment to his application regarding the situation, especially the overall performance of the class. Maybe even the principal, this situation was a travesty. I still like his chances at Vandy and W&L, but of course he should apply to some other academically good schools like Wake Forest. If you can talk him into considering Tulane (lots of cheap non-stop flights on Southwest to Nashville) he would get significant merit scholarship money. He would even have a shot at full tuition.</p>

<p>If he does get into Vandy and/or W&L, am I right that you would need significant financial aid for him to go? I think both schools have some good merit scholarships too, but I am sure those are very competitive, so one cannot count on them.</p>

14

<p>^ The OP said FA was needed (one retired parent, the other making ~40K - I assume she meant K and not M!). And I’d have to agree that Rhodes is a match. While the OP’s son has a very high ACT score, Rhodes weights GPA, Class Rank and Rigor the most. The GPA and class rank would put the student at about the 55%ile. I think the GC should definitely mention the issue about the class in the recommendation letter.</p>

<p>I think Vandy would still be a match.</p>

15

<p>

OP. You really need to get comfortable with the concept of Financial Aid- both need and merit. You need to carefully research how your/his particular profile fits into the Institutional Aid and Merit Aid calculations/prospects of specific schools. And if by “LOTS” you are talking full-tuition (and I suspect you are thinking at least 1/2 tuition if not more), the whole dynamic changes RADICALLY and schools that might well be admissions safeties become merit reaches…and sometimes very, very high merit reaches at that. </p>

<p>Admissions chances mean nothing to y’all if you can’t afford to send him. Unfortunately…that’s what most posters are talking about on this thread. </p>

<p>Any ding becomes magnified in the hunt for big merit aid, and his junior year math grades are a “ding”.</p>

<p>BTW, I do like his profile and think it can be done if the list is carefully constructed. This a very complex process with vectors and tangents headed every which-a-way. Good luck and P.M. me if you get lost along the way.</p>

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<p>Hard to call a Vandy a match and then still call Rhodes a match. There is a huge spread between those schools, no matter what they say they weight. 95% of the kids with his approximate stats and EC’s would get into Rhodes. To me that is a safety.</p>

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<p>fallenchemist, I agree he’ll get in…but can he afford to go? With his stats (as good as they are) big merit aid is not a guarantee at Rhodes, Furman, Vandy, W+L,…</p>

<p>IMO whether a school is an admissions safety is really not that relevant to the OP’s search for a number of schools being discussed on this thread. But, as always, just my opinion.</p>

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<p>vandy doesnt have alot of merit…some selective scholarships, so costs would have to be through need based… my son was wait listed there with a 33 act and approx 4.18 gpa if that helps give you an idea. i think they had a 16% acceptance rate last year?</p>

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<p>curmudgeon - totally agree, but I am not involving the financial issue, just the admission issue.</p>

20

<p>Do you have at least TWO safeties that your son would be happy to attend and which you KNOW you will be able to afford due to guaranteed scholarships or low cost? If so, then it doesn’t matter if the other schools are matches or reaches or whatever category - just have son apply wherever he wants. It’s not an exact science, and I think, given his interesting profile, it’s hard to determine where he’ll get in. Could be all of them or none of them! But make sure the safeties are FINANCIAL safeties as well as entrance ones.</p>