Rankings

<p>Any thoughts on the 2015 US and News World Report? Tulane was tied for 54th. Anyone know what their ranking was last year? Thanks. </p>

<p>I haven’t looked at the latest report, but I have been on record for a long time that these rankings are not only meaningless, they are actually harmful. The formula they use is arbitrary, numerous relevant factors are left out and factors that are nearly irrelevant in today’s world of admissions and university life are still used. But most importantly, how in the world does one quantify a value as complex and subjective as a “best college”? It is absurd on its face.</p>

<p>But just looking at their formula from before (I am assuming they didn’t change it this year, which is not a good assumption since they do change it fairly often, another good indicator of how unscientific this is), I did think Tulane would go up a little in the rankings because their graduation rates kept improving post-Katrina. But that didn’t happen, they actually went from 52 I think it was, to 54. No idea why. I didn’t care when I thought they might go up into the 40’s, and I don’t care now. USNWR makes money off this farce, so they won’t stop. Unlike some schools such as Northeastern University (recent article in the NYTimes or Boston Globe or somewhere like that), Tulane has so far chosen not to let these rankings guide their choices. I hope they stick to that philosophy. The school is doing just great as it is.</p>

<p>Fallen chemist-if anyone would know this you would- why is the Tulane visiting day so late? Most are in Oct.</p>

<p>I was quite surprised it was so late this year as well. It really makes no sense to have it so close to Thanksgiving. Usually it is in mid-October. They always do it the same weekend as Homecoming. There must have been something specific that they are doing it so late, but I don’t know what. I could only speculate that it might have had something to do with uncertainty about the stadium completion at the time they set the date, or maybe the move to the new conference. But those are only guesses.</p>

<p>I thought it was strange too. Tulane seems to love attracting highly or even overqualified students with scholarship money, so with that in mind, I thought its ranking would go up a few notches.</p>

<p>The quality of the incoming classes has risen steadily. But other factors weigh more heavily in the USNWR formula, some of which are very slow to change no matter the reality and others of which simply work against Tulane, and have zero to do with the quality of the school. I personally am extremely pleased with the progress and direction of the university since Katrina and whether or not that is reflected by any ranking system means nothing to me.</p>

<p>Fallenchemist, your analysis as well as your philosophy surely are correct. The problem, of course, is that most 17 year olds – and many adults for that matter – are not as sophisticated. They rely on these rankings, especially UNSWR, as a proxy for quality and prestige. I would respectfully submit that this downward spiral has become so severe – i.e., 20 spots in 17 years – that it has passed from statistical insignificance to statistical significance. In the minds of too many applicants, many schools that in the 90s were Tulane’s peers (e.g., Emory, Brandeis) ’ a shade below (I.e., U of Miami, USC, BU), or even a shade above (I.e., Vanderbilt, UNC, Tufts, BC) are all now so far ahead of Tulane in UNSWR that in many cases they are no longer perceived as peers. What I am saying is that people can overlook 5 or 10 or maybe even in some cases 15 spots if they think they or their child will be happy, but overlooking 30 or 35 spots is just too much risk for their or their kids’ future to chance. A ranking of 54 also hurts morale, especially for those especially well qualified students who defied the peanut gallery’s advice and went to Tulane over higher ranked schools. I do think it is wise to emphasize the unique New Orleans experience, which is real of course, as well as the recent nice showing in the “happiness” poll, but I would also add that the administration would do well to focus its energies on reversing this spiral. That might have been effort wasted when Tulane was in the low to mid 40s, but mid-50s is a totally different league. I think Tulane is a wonderful institution with tremendous offerings, and many very bright and motivated students, and that has not changed, but at UNSWR no. 54 the institution risks losing too much of those qualities if it does not quickly reverse this spiral.</p>

<p>“Perception is reality”. I completely understand your argument and I am sure this will be discussed at length by Tulane admissions and by the Tulane board, especially with a new President. It’s a tough call I imagine. On the one hand Tulane has been 51-54 for a few years now and there seem to be no ill effects on getting great incoming classes that are full. On the other hand, one doesn’t want to get complacent and assume that these rankings will have no effect going forward, as you say.</p>

<p>There is a very large segment of the applicant universe that truly pays no attention to rankings. I could make an argument that there might even be a correlation between the kind of student Tulane particularly attracts and this aversion to ranking systems. Would I bet the future of admissions on it? That is a strategic planning meeting I would love to be part of. I just would hate to see Tulane take some of the steps other schools have to “game” the rankings.</p>

<p>Northeastern has got USNWR game. Up 7 slots from last year. Now tied with BU at #42. Up from 162 in the late 1990s!! </p>

<p>Only shallow people care about these rankings. But if you are shallow (like me), read on and I’ll explain what is going on with TU and USNWR. </p>

<p>TU has been listed by USNWR in the “up and coming” category for several years running. So you’d expect the ranking to be going up. But #54 this year and #52 last year. My $0.02 is that it just hasn’t happened yet. Fwiw, Northeastern and USNWR darling #25 USC are also listed in that same up/coming category.</p>

<p>Student admissions selectivity is 12.5% of the USNWR score, and TU does very well in that category. I haven’t seen the full data for this year yet. But based on past years, TU’s selectivity index (combination of test scores, HS class rank, acceptance rate) is about 20 slots higher than its 50-ish ranking. This one is based on data for the incoming class from Fall 2013 – so a pretty current metric. If you are shallow like me, that’s the only thing you care about. A school is only good if it is hard to get into. Like Groucho, I want to belong to a club that won’t have me as a member.</p>

<p>Freshman retention rate is 4.5% of the formula, and Tulane is doing better in that category (90%) than it did a few years ago. But still lagging a little bit. For example, USC is 97%, NYU 92%, Miami 91%. Note that the freshman retention data is based on the classes that started in the Fall of 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012. So this one is a pretty current metric and post-Katrina. </p>

<p>A big piece of the formula (18%) is tied to six year graduation rate. This is what kills TU – 76%. By comparison, USC is 91%, NYU 84%, Miami 82%. This stat currently combines data for the freshmen classes that started in the Fall of 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. So very much a trailing/lagging metric. FYI, Katrina was Fall 2005. So it will be 2-4 more years until the lingering effects of Katrina are completely out of the data set. But there also could be other stuff at work here. Since TU imports so many of its students from so far away, maybe TU is inherently more prone to having kids return closer to home to finish up their degrees. </p>

<p>Next biggest (22.5%) piece of the formula is peer undergrad academic reputation. Basically asking other schools what schools they think are good. You’d think that one would be the hardest/slowest to change, although Northeastern was actually able to move this needle through some old fashioned schmoozing. </p>

<p>My kid could not be happier with picking TU for college and is doing great and has no idea of where TU is ranked by USNWR. But this shallow Dad would be a little happier if the TU degree he’s paying for turns out to be considered (by other similarly shallow people) a little more fancy a few years down the road from now. The indications are that that will happen. </p>

<p>Northeastern is gonna get its doors blown off by TU in about three years time!! And if TU suddenly surges up the USNWR rankings, we’ll see whether FC will still be saying that these rankings are silly and mean nothing. : ) </p>

<p>Also, I’m sure that TU is paying PLENTY of attention to what its USNWR ranking is. I don’t buy for one second that they have chosen to opt out of this game. While they are not doing all the wacky stuff that Northeastern has done to game their ranking, TU is very much in synch with its peer schools like Miami and USC (e.g. lots of merit money) who have moved up the ladder. In TU’s case, it is just that they are weighed down with a trailing data set that they can’t do anything about other than wait for time to pass.</p>

<p>

I can promise you that Tulane could be ranked in the top 20 and I would say the same thing. Meaningless (from my scientific perspective, not public perception) is still meaningless. I have always acknowledged that there is a large portion of the population that falls for this gimmickry, possibly larger than those that don’t. And I never meant to imply that Tulane isn’t paying any attention to this stuff, I am sure they are. I just don’t see that they are making the kinds of large changes some other schools have just to move up, but instead have focused on strategies and real programs that have been good for students and good for the school.</p>

<p>I thought the cohorts involving 6 year graduation rates that included any Katrina years were pretty much past, but perhaps you are right, if 76% is what Tulane is still seeing. That would certainly be dragging them down, per USNWR formula. But it really does get back to the point. Let’s say it is true for various reasons, including that Tulane students come from further away to begin with. Is that really a measure of the quality of Tulane as a university, or does it make a good proxy for such? Anyway, don’t really want to start that debate all over again. Appreciate the hard core data, @northwesty. I have wearied of digging it all out any longer.</p>

<p>Boy, this is a high quality board! I guess time will tell in any case. Thank you for your thoughtful replies.</p>

<p>Here’s TU’s ranking over the years fyi.</p>

<p>96/38, 97/36, 98/34, 99/36, 00/44, 01/45, 02/46, 03/43, 04/44, 05/43, 06/43, 07/44.</p>

<p>I believe there was a big change in the formula for 2000 that affected TU and a lot of other schools. Princeton and Yale were apoplectic that year as they dropped from #1 to #4. Outrageous!!!. </p>

<p>Since then, TU was consistently at 43-45. Once the effect of the 2005 hurricane kicked in, the rating dropped. Due to the huge importance of the backward looking 6 year graduation stat, TU is basically stuck for another few years. But since the school has been doing a great job since Katrina (hence the up and coming ranking several years running), expect Tulane to be the star of the 2019 edition of USNWR.</p>

<p>I do hope that Tulane continues to work on improving graduation rates. It is a healthy metric for the school, completely irrespective of rankings. Good for finances, good for overall class cohesiveness.</p>

<p>Tulane is the right school for my DD. If the ratings go up that would be nice, but it doesn’t change the fact it is a wonderful school. On the other note, Parent Weekend and Homecoming, if you look at the football schedule you can see that there are 2 home games in October. The first is during fall break, so obviously they couldn’t have parent weekend then, and the second is Halloween weekend, and my understanding is that is a rather wild time so I suspect that is why that weekend was not chosen. The following home game is Nov 15th which is set at Parents Weekend and Homecoming!</p>

<p>USNWR gets its data from the Common Data Set, which is on the TU website. Here’s TU’s 6 year graduation rates:</p>

<p>2002 74%
2003 73%
2004 70%
2005 N/A Katrina
2006 75%
2007 76%</p>

<p>I don’t know how USNWR calculates the Katrina year. But this year’s 2015 USNWR data set is probably the low point and the most Katrina impacted, even though Katrina was nine years ago. </p>

<p>It is probably three more years until you get completely past Katrina and also start to see the data for the “new” Tulane. But you can clearly see that the number will go up. Just compare the 1 vs 6 year grad rates.</p>

<p>NYU is 92/84. Miami is 91/82. Tulane is 90/76. Tulane retained 90% of the 09/10/11 freshman cohorts, but those cohorts are not yet in the 6 year data set. So you’d expect the 6 year grad rates for those classes (based on NYU and Miami’s pattern) to be maybe 81% instead of 76%. Maybe higher. FYI, frosh retention rate (which feeds the 6 year grad rate) is 08/91%, 09/91%, 10/90%, 11/89%, 12/90%. So there are some stronger years coming for this important metric. </p>

<p>So my kid is pretty much assured of having a degree from a school ranked in the mid-to-low 40s by the time the kid is looking for the second job out of college. </p>

<p>northwesty and fallenchemist, Thanks for all the great info. It is frustrating seeing all the schools ranked ahead of TU considering;</p>

<p>1-The high quality of education received at TU
2-How hard my son works at TU
3-The cost of the education at TU</p>

<p>I know some at Wake who had no chance of getting into TU and they’re 27th, a top 30 school…Unfortunately, people do put emphasis on the rankings and I’d hate to say rankings have little meaning just because TU’s ranking is not in the top 50 and dropping. We all know TU is a great school TU and it would be nice to see it back in the 40’s.</p>

<p>Here’s a trend by college for the last five years: </p>

<p><a href=“http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/local/us-news-college-ranking-trends/1292/”>http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/local/us-news-college-ranking-trends/1292/&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

<p>Any thoughts to the low 6 year graduation rate? I know here why I work finances play a big part. Students can’t afford to stay here to finish their education and end up transferring to state schools. </p>

<p>Look at the data above. It is Katrina.</p>

<p>The data being used by 2015 edition of USNWR for 6 year grad rate is based on the freshman classes that started at TU in the Fall of 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007. Katrina was 2005. All of TU’s other stats are in line with a much higher ranking, since they are based on data from 2009 and more recent. 2015 edition turns out to be the data that are most heavily effected by the 2005 hurricane. TU’s data and ranking will normalize over the next 4 years or so. USNWR is predicting/foreshadowing that by listing TU year after year as an up and comer (i.e. a school whose rank is expected to rise).</p>

<p>ok gotcha…I just blanked on what years data they were using. </p>