<p>I do not think that every recruited athlete (i.e. athlete on the coach’s list) gets a likely letter. My child knows Harvard team members who clearly knew they were being recruited and did not get them.</p>
<p>For the original poster, the big question is whether the coach is actively trying to get the applicant in, or whether it’s “if you happen to get in, then by all means join the team.” A coach who is truly interested and pulling for the athlete will give the athlete’s academic record, scores, etc. to admissions, and admissions will let the coach know if it’s strong, weak, or maybe. The coach should have communicated that to the athlete with the appropriate disclaimer that there are no guarantees. In cases where the initial read is “maybe,” I have seen active work with admissions and the applicant to turn the maybe into a “strong” (e.g. take the SATs again, raise your GPA, etc.). If the original poster is getting that kind of attention, then I’d say her chances are markedly better than an ordinary unhooked applicant, regardless of whether she has the likely letter.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, the original poster’s description doesn’t sound like she’s getting that kind of attention. If so, then she really is on her own. I’ve seen this too, where Ivy coaches effectively tell an athlete, “I have 6 recruiting slots, and you’re number 8. If you can get in, then by all means join the team, but I can’t/won’t do anything to really help you.”</p>