It doesn’t seem like they ran this idea past an epidemiologist.
But the level of extreme illness isn’t trending lower. And there’s no evolutionary pressure for the virus to decrease its virulence, because the infections occur before the victim gets seriously ill.
We can easily see why a mutation that makes the virus more infectious would prevail over the original virus: the very nature of the mutation makes it spread better than the original. But even if there were a mutation that was less lethal, why would it overcome the current more lethal version? It would have no competitive advantage, because the original version is already spreading before serious illness happens.
@“Cardinal Fang” I don’t want to go off the reservation of the college orientation. Just look at the sars research and there’s a few more out there happening in real time.
And yes, i would certainly expect statistically that if were holding things constant at this level of daily case count - hospitals and icu beds would be seemingly starting to be overrun. Fatalities off the charts.
I’m not a biologist. But I’m hearing a lot of talk about virulence decreasing and some of the factors. I’ll leave it others to explain.
Duke’s rules for ten people getting together are within most states’ Covid guidelines. We are up to 50 here in Illinois. But it’s with MASKS. I’m sure that’s what’s expected.
https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article243972402.html
NC had a record number of hospitalizations reported today. If you’re interested, there is a graph in the article showing hospitalizations rising for some time.
This is before Duke students return to campus.
But @homerdog if you’re at a party, aren’t you eating & drinking? So that mask has got to be down for a while. And aren’t most people at the party for several hours? And we know masks aren’t 100% effective. I don’t mean to be a bummer, but I don’t think Duke’s plan to allow small parties isn’t a very good idea. It would make a difference to me if they said up to 10 provided that it’s outside. Primarily from the standpoint of not building up a viral load in a room, but also it would be easier to monitor that the kids really are keeping their masks on except to take a sip of their drink as opposed to having a drink in their hand.
“I don’t mean to be a bummer, but I don’t think Duke’s plan to allow small parties isn’t a very good idea.”
I haven’t read anything that says Duke’s allowing small parties. What they said is social distancing gatherings with 10 people or less and everyone wearing masks. I think if they see groups of people partying (drinking and not social distancing) they are going to crack down hard on them. I have a feeling they are going to be enforcing this policy, aggressively in the fall. The big parties on campus are just not going to be tolerated right now.
The University of Washington and Public Health – Seattle & King County continue to respond to a cluster of cases among residents of Greek houses north of the Seattle campus, and their close contacts.
As of July 3, at least 89 fraternity house residents have tested positive for COVID-19. In total, at least 93 UW students are confirmed to have tested positive in the Greek Row outbreak.
I heard that our HS GC is urging the class of 2020 to Not take a gap year. The stated reason is that she’s really concerned about whether those kids will be allowed to start in 2021 or whether they’ll be forced into additional gap years. I’m sure she is greatly concerned about this. I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s also worried at what impact that would have on the class of 2021.
There is a Russian phraseologism that perfectly describes taking a gap year under the current circumstances: “waiting for the weather by the sea”.
This is a lot of cases. 93 of them are isolating? Call me crazy but I just cannot believe that. I don’t see this going well!
@milgymfam It may be bc we are running out of testing kits in some areas, not sure that is the only reason I can see.
But not all kids have the option of living off campus, esp first years
The students have to wear masks at all times outside of their rooms when 6’ of distance is not possible. No one said it was
‘Go forth and have parties of 10 with no masks and no distance’.
Duke has public health experts and epidemiologists at its own medical school, hospital, and public health institute, so I think they ran it by an epidemiologist or maybe 10.
“But not all kids have the option of living off campus, esp first years”
I think if a first-year wanted to live off campus this year, they could, esp if the kid has a note from a doctor. No way a college will go against that. The second-guessing, bad PR and lawsuits will be up the proverbial wazoo.
S19 felt the same way. I usually started decorating for Christmas the Sunday of Thanksgiving weekend, so he felt left out last year. He likes the “home at Thanksgiving” plan.
For everyone, this is probably a good time to talk this through with students. Symptoms to look for, how to monitor self (temps, O2 levels if you have ability, judging severity), and how to take care of self (hydration, food, correct medications and dosages). When and who to call for help - maybe a list of numbers. The need to look out for others who might be ill. I’m hoping to connect with the parents of S19’s apartmentmates so we can stay in touch in case any of the 4 get sick/are quarantined.
This sounds like a great plan for this student. Unfortunately, the vast majority of students do not have the means to do something as constructive as this. A gap year would be, at best, living at home and working at Target or Chick Fil A.
S19’s summer internship was cancelled. His only employment opportunity was going door-to-door for the census, and we finally nixed that. He chose to take 3 online classes this summer and study to CLEP another class, all with the goal of adding a second major. He would rather do online classes - living in an apartment near campus - than take a gap year.
^Visit Taiwan? Aren’t foreigners barred from entering Taiwan without special permission? Unless s/he think visa restrictions will be relaxed later this year? With our current rate of infections, I wouldn’t bet on being able to visit most other countries right now.
If we continue on our current trajectory into the fall, we can all forget about returning to campuses in the fall, whatever the current plans are.