I don’t think the choices for analyzing college reopenings are limited to being either pessimistic or optimistic. In between the two extremes there’s plenty of space for realism.
There are schools that are small enough and remote enough that they can probably make it through the fall without having to change to all remote classes. There are some that are so large and in such heavily populated areas that they’re going to face challenges that remote schools won’t, but there are also many that fall between the two extremes. They’re not huge or in densely populated areas, but they aren’t what I call remote either. What happens at any of them will depend on a lot of factors.
I watched the devastation unfold in NYC a on a daily basis. High population density + inadequate testing is not a good combination. Toss in unsafe behavior and you have a recipe for a terrible situation. But you don’t have to engage in unsafe activities to contract Covid. A study conducted in NY in the spring reported that many people were getting it at home. They weren’t working or shopping or traveling on the subway every day. But they had family members who were.
I think the same will be true of college students. Asymptomatic people may bring it in and pass it along before anyone realizes they have it, so I expect there will be outbreaks. I think the key to containing them is to do adequate amounts of testing and contact tracing and to have enough space to isolate/quarantine as needed. I don’t think all colleges have that. They’re going to need to be extra vigilant.
College students started returning to our state over a week ago so I’m keeping an eye on the numbers on our state dashboard. So far, they look good. I hope that continues to be the case.