@mom2collegekids Trust me - the NPC have been run for all the schools on the list. Luckily our state schools are relatively inexpensive even without aid. (and the one in KS is part of the Midwest exchange program) Only Drury is dependent on merit - which looks pretty likely.
And you’re right those NPC are all over the board.
I am really just worried that our matches are really reaches. And I am striking out finding any schools between the safeties and matches on our list we can afford.
Have you run the NPC on the ones I listed? Any that are affordable?
@MYOS1634 Many of the ones on your list are affordable (assuming I can trust the NPCs)
Dickinson, Muhlenberg, Franklin and Marshall, Bryn Mawr, St Olaf, Bates - All financially good - most are just under that 2K size. St. Olaf is still on the maybe list due to the fact it is a little closer to home than the rest
Drake, Gettysburg, Lawrence, NPC came out higher than cost for state flagship which is our max.
Beloit, Gustavus Adolphus, Hobart and William Smith, St Lawrence, - Haven’t ran NPC for these - I am thinking they weren’t considered due to size (or location she is really not fond of snow - so small AND cold AND far from home probably got scratched from the list)
If I ran the NPC it was on my D’s first list. I have a feeling that she grouped the New England area schools together and Lafayette (and maybe Lehigh) and UofRichmond came out as her favorites. I’d have to talk to her more about why. But if one of the ones she cut is more of a match than the ones she picked we may revisit them.
But determining which ones are a match admissions wise - not financially - is the hard part for us.
Still Olaf has 3,200 I think, and Bryn Mawr is in a consortium with Haverford, that’s about 3,500 too.
But if you take her to visit some colleges, she’ll see they don’t necessarily 'feel small’due to campus size, number of buildings… And she may revisit the numbers. 
What state are you from - MO? guessing from your CC name. What in-state school(s) will be applied to? Are there any states with reciprocity with your state?
I agree with many of the posters’ comments.
Make sure all the schools she is applying to has the degree programs she may end up deciding on finishing with. Some schools far away may be very similar with campus feel as something close - it sounds like she is working on looking at the schools that will work for her.
I would also consider taking ACT again - with some tutoring help (if available) if it means more merit at some of the schools. DD got her best score on the Dec of senior year ACT test, which made a big difference financially on automatic scholarships.
Does in-state have any honors programs? Sometimes that can help have a college experience be more like a smaller campus.
Even after all the ‘work’ of applying - whatever can work out. A small LAC may be more affordable and be a better fit for her. Try to visit those schools in your area - especially if looking for scholarship; they will look at DD as a more serious candidate with visiting.
Honestly I would focus on those schools that can work out financially and not be a reach (I wouldn’t apply to ND, Vanderbilt, Boston College) - unless your student is an URM I don’t think the student would make it past the first look of GPA and standardized test score.
I would keep a school like Rhodes on the list - they may work with keeping it affordable for you (perhaps with on-campus student work).
I suspect that some students who may decide on a smaller school may realize that they would actually enjoy the activities and opportunities of a larger campus. Keep an open mind - especially with a bigger school closer to home. Can possibly have enough trips home or visitors from home (or other students/families with students at the school) that will help ease some of the discomfort in first year.
St Olaf is Lutheran - if you are of Lutheran faith, great. It also is very north (cold/snow). I have a Lutheran friend whose siblings have gone there (and son is now there) - however he is trying to decide on his final degree plan, if it will include a 2nd major or what will major/minor be…going into his sophomore year. Right now is studying both the sciences and theology…I guess he can finish a degree at St Olaf in either Math or Physics - but would have to transfer if he wanted to finish an engineering degree (which was his initial intent, but he didn’t apply to a school that he would have had full tuition scholarship plus eng scholarship $$, and he turned up his nose to his in-state school with a full tuition scholarship).
A school choice can be very limiting when a student either changes their mind on career plans, or they ‘didn’t know what they don’t know’ about themselves or the school until once attending. This is very tricky when relying on four year scholarship/financial aid accepted with school chosen.
Affordable, likable, and offering flexibility with student’s potential changing academic goals/needs.
Unfortunately the New England schools are too far to visit without acceptances first 
But we have visited a couple of local small schools, and most recently Rhodes College which I loves and she liked a whole lot but is still unsure of a student body that small. She thinks it because it is the same size as high school it will be like high school (I know, I know…)
Do they offer a 'student for a day’s type of experience - spending an overnight in the dorms, attending a class, eating in the cafeteria, meeting with students?
@stlarenas I went to a small LAC myself. I would not even consider a large school. No way!
It did not take long for me to feel suffocated and wonder WHAT in the world I had been thinking. I got relief by doing a year long off-campus program at a big Public University. I loved it. Who would’ve thought? Not me! Things change. I recommend staying as open and flexible as possible.
We only visited 3 out of 7 schools on D16’s short list before applications went in. But, we did take tours of schools closer to home, as representative samples of a school “type”. In the spring, we took one last trip to the finalist.
OP - post 34 is exactly something one does want to prevent happening. It really does depend on student personality and preferences. Sometimes a parent can see things more clearly than the student.
This first part of senior year is important at getting in the applications necessary and also hopefully raising ACT/SAT score. Cast a wide enough lasso so that the second half of senior year can be more visits/evaluation of what is important and less important, and what truly will work out financially.