@ucbalumnus useful stats, but like you said, those don’t take into considering impacted majors like engineering, so accounting for that, plus the fact that OP’s GPA is towards the upper end of that range, I think it’s safe to assume chances would be a fair bit higher than in the '50s.
@insanedreamer That is what I was thinking as well. ucbalumnus’s data sets (which he has posted on at least 1 or 2 of my threads before) are a good resource but I think they leave out important information. I guess this is always true; no matter how good of a data set or admitted students profile you have, your admission is never going to be accurately predicted.
UCs appear to be generally much less sensitive to test scores relative to GPA compared to many other schools, such as CSUs and USC. So, while higher test scores are better than lower test scores, the amount of lower GPA that they compensate for at UCs is likely less than at many other schools.
This is why the students surprised by rejection from UCD and the like last year generally tended to be test score heavy applicants (second tier GPA in the 3.80-4.19 range but with very high test scores), rather than the other way around (those “rejected from UCD” complaint threads appeared to have few or no GPA heavy applicants).
Op should run the NPC on usc and a few oos privates. Also some wue universities are more high -score friendly than UC 's.
Regarding selectivity at the UCs, from what I have seen of documented cases, there would seem to be ample room in this group for an applicant such as @wormholes.
These are statistical summaries of the two most recent US News profiles of actual students I have come across:
UC-Berkeley
GPA: 3.9 (UW)
SAT: 630 M, 570 CR, 510 W (1710 total)
ACT: 26
Decision: Accepted/Attending
UC-Santa Cruz
GPA: 3.4 (UW)
SAT: 450 M, 400, CR, 410 W (1260 total)
Decision: Accepted/Attending
With respect to UCLA, which the OP seems to particularly like, the school will accept over 12,000 applicants with substantially lower ACT scores than his 35.
There’s some question as to the importance of a “second tier” California GPA, which @ucbalumnus did an excellent job of discussing (#62). Nonetheless, the above cases may tend to indicate that the OP will encounter good prospects of admission at at least some of the UCs.
@merc81 wow, I didn’t realize Cal accepted students with such low SAT scores.
By the way, speaking of UCs, unlike most top privates, they don’t superscore the SAT. My D took the SAT twice. The first time she scored poorly in math (690) and high in CR & W. The second time she improved her math (750) but (oddly) got a low score on her essay, so her total score was the same both times, 2190, while her superscore was 2300. So the UCs counted the 2190 (and the 690 math), whereas the privates counted 2300. And while 2190 is still above average for Cal she didn’t get in nor even to UCSB (which was her safety). Of course that was for the SoE, and those SAT requirements are considerably higher than their published overall averages.
@MYOS1634 I’m definitely looking at USC. Seems to be a great option, especially with the National Merit aid they give.
@merc81 Thank you for those numbers!! I would also like to add that the way my school works, the highest possible UC GPA you can get is a 4.25, so my UC GPA, though it seems lower than others, is pretty normal for my school. Also, I know Cal and LA look at uncapped UC GPA rather than capped, which isn’t reflected on the data sets.
@insanedreamer Yep, UCs unfortunately do not superscore. I’m not too worried about that though because I only tested once. Thanks!!
Obviously, UCSB was not actually a safety…
What was her (unweighted and/or UC-weighted) high school GPA?
Here is a list of posted admission decisions for UCB for the frosh class of 2018 (entering fall 2014 or spring 2015). However, there were very few postings from denied applicants in this sample.
http://talk.collegeconfidential.com/discussion/comment/17249805/#Comment_17249805
@ucbalumnus Thank you so much!
@ucbalumnus yeah, obviously not. But we were just going by average admission stats online, by which UCSB looked like a sure thing, and while we knew that the SoE was more competitive we didn’t know by how much. (We live overseas and hadn’t discovered this forum at that time or we would have gotten some advice.) Her GPA was 4.16. We’re pretty sure it was her initial low math SAT score (690) that was the “culprit” so to speak. (Anyway, thankfully it was no big disappointment as she wasn’t really interested in going to a UC or big state school.)
http://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/infocenter/freshman-admissions-summary indicates that, for 2015, UCSB’s admit rate for frosh applicants with UC GPA 3.80-4.19 was 49%. For 2012, 2013, 2014, it was 74%, 68%, 58%.
To: OP
you are a terrific candidate, and I’m confident you’ll be admitted to most, if not all, of your top choices.
But, just FYI (and forgive me if this has already been mentioned by a previous poster), you listed
Claremont McKenna as a .‘match’. But, in fact, CMC, with a 9.4% acceptance rate is more selective than any of your ‘reaches’, with the possible exception of Amherst. Although CMC has a lower acceptance rate, I believe Amherst has slightly higher test scores (then again, CMC actually pursues and adheres to the oft-proclaimed practice of examining each prospect ‘holistically,’ more so than any other college with which I’m familiar).
I particularly liked oldcmcalum’s post on this thread, BTW.
I would go with your gut, and regard the posters who are urging you to apply to Pomona or Mudd - both tremendous schools - with a grain of salt. They apparently are clinging to the outdated notion that CMC is still a ‘Business /Economics school’ (fyi, there is no ‘Business’ major offered). If you examine the school’s most recent
Common Data Set, you will see that around 34% of students major in some area of the Social Sciences, which I assume includes Econ and Govt, still The College’s most popular majors,as they were when I attended, back in the ‘dark ages’, when it was called Claremont Men’s College…LOL! This tells you that 2/3 of students major in other subjects.
While I was admittedly a govt / history major, I do try to keep up with the current climate, and have met current President Chodosh on more than one occasion. He told me upon our first meeting that, while justifiably proud of the school’s stellar reputation as an academic powerhouse in Economics/Govt, one of his goals was to make CMC more well-rounded in the true Liberal Arts tradition.
Finally,you are in pursuit of medical school? I have heard great things about the Keck joint science program, and- as i’m sure you know - you can take classes at Pomona and/or Mudd. Also, FYI, I recall that, a few years ago, every CMC grad who applied to Med School was accepted to hi/her first or second choice!
Sorry for making this post so long, but I wish you the best in your pursuits, academic and otherwise!
Now, hurry up and complete Medical School…maybe you will find a cure for Parkinson’s! LOL!
Be aware that the admissions officers at the UCs, even UC Berkeley, will weigh class rank much higher than standardized test scores in their admissions process. They want the overachieving kid from the bad high school in the ghetto or the boonies who did as well as they possibly could under their particular circumstances more than they want another well-off kid from the suburbs who was not top of their class but tutored for months to get a high SAT score.
My kids go to a small prep school, and Naviance tells me that for them, it is harder to get into UC Berkeley than it is to get into many top-20 universities with much higher average SAT scores.
Class rank as determined by the high school is not used or seen by UCs.
Indirect correlates to class rank like ELC status or achievement in context of opportunities can be factors.
@ucbalumnus yeah that’s what I thought as well and I asked my counselor today. She said ELC is mostly only used in the case of which you don’t get into any UC you apply to.
@stagalum wow thanks for all the info! And lol hopefully one day 
@MurphyBrown I’ll definitely look into it, thanks!!