I’m a rising senior, and I’ll be applying to colleges this fall. I’m a CA resident, and I’ll be applying to all UC’s (these are my first choices). However, I’ll also be applying to some OOS schools as well, and I was wondering how my chances are at these; thank you!
EARLY:
-Stanford (in-state)
-UNC Chapel Hill
-UMich
-UVA
-UT Austin
-UIUC
-UW-Madison
-Rutgers
REGULAR:
-Duke
-Cornell
-UPenn
-Johns Hopkins
-Carnegie Mellon
-Vanderbilt
Stats:
9-12 GPA: 4.36/3.80
10-12 GPA: 4.60/3.80
Will have taken 17 AP’s by the time I graduate
ACT: 35
APs: Chem 4, World 4, Calc AB 5, Psych 5
SAT math 2 770, chem 720
Awards/Honors:
-NM Semifinalist/Finalist
-National AP Scholar hopefully?
Based on numbers alone, how do you think my chances are at all of these schools? Please be brutally honest 
Oh and intended major is biology/biochemistry!
This was a brutal year in terms of acceptances. You will get into Rutgers, UWisconsin might be a high match. The rest are unsure, range from low reach to high reach. Numbers alone do not tell your story, and all these schools practice holistic admissions. Your ECs, ethnicity (at some schools), recommendations, and essays will all have an impact.
@intparent Ok, thank you :o how would you say my chances are at Berkeley, UCLA, and UCSD? (in-state)
Generally I concur with the assessment by @intparent regarding holistic admissions practices as well as the “brutal year” for acceptances (not likely to improve either); and I would also emphasize the importance of good essays for any of these schools. Based on our high school’s Naviance scattergrams, here is my two cents worth:
Stanford: forget it; <5% admit rate, whether you are in-state or not doesn’t matter as it’s a private school
UNC-CH: decent chance
UMichigan: decent chance
UVA: decent chance
UT-Austin: good chance
UIUC: decent chance
UW-Madison: insufficient data
Rutgers: insufficient data
Duke: low chance
Cornell: decent chance
Penn: very low chance
Johns Hopkins: decent chance
Carnegie Mellon: decent chance
Vanderbilt: decent chance
@gandalf78 ah okay, thanks!
For UMich, your uwGPA is below admission average while ACT right above 75%. Their OOS admission rate is around 20%. So UMich LSA should be a very high match to low reach for you.
Also, if one of those OOS schools really strikes your fancy, and you decide that you just can’t live without it, consider applying ED if it is available at the school, and if you can afford it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/grade-point/wp/2016/03/31/a-college-admissions-edge-for-the-wealthy-early-decision/?hpid=hp_hp-more-top-stories_college-admissions-710am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory. But ED is binding, so if money is going to be a potential issue, then go the EA or RD route instead.
Have you discussed a budget with your parents and run figures through any NPCs (Net Price Calculators)? What colleges think you can pay and what your family is able/willing to pay may be two different things. Public universities generally don’t give a lot of aid to OOS applicants; private schools can actually be a better deal, depending on your family’s circumstances.
Before you proceed, make sure these options are financially viable and that you understand how much you or your family are able or willing to borrow if assets/income are inadequate to pay full costs.
@gandalf78 yeah I’ve considered ED but I really don’t want to be bound. Thank you though!
@mamaedefamilia hmm ok, good point. Thanks!
If you haven’t discussed costs with your parents, do so Asap. A good way to start the conversation is to sit together and run the NPC on Umich and 2-3 others on your list. Start with the others as otherwise even ulich is likely to give them a heart attack (but will seem much more acceptable after seeing 60k bills.)
Then see what range they can commit to, using their savings and current income :50-60? 25-30?
Since as a freshman you can borrow 5.5k and through work can earn about 3k, and it all up: that’s your budget.
Every college has a net price calculator on their website. But my concern about your list isn’t just money, I think you have all reaches on your list. We saw students like you shut out of almost all their schools this year. One with similar stats has only his in-state flagship as an option (and it is not a school on par with the UCs you listed). Another has only 2 choices (one her in-state flagship), but she was valedictorian of her class. Given that you will have taken 17 APs, I am wondering what ECs you have. Most top schools aren’t really looking for students who are AP gunners – they want to know how you would contribute to their community, and what else you are interested in.
But run some net price calculators to see what the numbers look like. If your parents can’t or won’t pay what the colleges are showing they will likely be asked to pay, then you really need to revise your list.
Someone from California could probably help you figure out your UC chances. You need to calculate your UC GPA, though.
Keep in mind that after 8 AP’s, the law of diminishing returns applies. In other words, you get a little bit of mileage for 10 instead of 8, and pretty much nothing after that.
@intparent I have decent EC’s haha, I assure you that I’ve done more than study for AP classes. And I’ll definitely run the NPC, thanks!
@MYOS1634 I thought they judged you based on how many AP’s you took in context of how many were offered at your school?
Not really… once you get a pretty high number of APs, they aren’t looking for you to take ALL of them. Most schools would rather have someone with a genuine intellectual interest in some areas than someone who just tried to take every AP. And if you don’t list your ECs and want chances, you are missing the boat on how these schools make decisions. ECs are a pretty important part of the decision. So show 'em if you’ve got 'em.
If your school offers 4, you’re expected to take all 4. If you school offers 10, you’re expected to take 4-8. If you school offers 20, you’re expected to take about 8 (10 at most). Colleges don’t like students who stockpile AP’s. 17 AP’s would actually raise eyebrows, like “what is s/he trying to prove?”
@MYOS1634 at the school I go to, the typical number of APs a high achieving student takes is 12-18, so it’s not actually unheard of haha