Son has visited and investigated many schools. He still loves Vanderbilt as first choice. He has a 36 on all parts of ACT except math – 32. Highest composite was 34. Good grades but not great. He did not do well Fresh year but since then has been doing great. Deep interest and focus in HS extracurriculars on Env. Science and sustainability. Likely 1 other white male from his college prep, well-respected HS will apply. That boy has lower test scores but better grades. We think there is zero chance of Vanderbilt even with ED (apparently ED makes a fairly big difference with Vanderbilt) and full pay. Private counselor says there is a decent chance. He will apply in liberal arts. Any advice? We are concerned that if he uses ED on a no-shot school, he may miss his 2nd and 3rd choices and be stuck with a safety school (albeit with likely significant merit aid).
“We are concerned that if he uses ED on a no-shot school, he may miss his 2nd and 3rd choices and be stuck with a safety school”
I am not clear why you think he would miss his shot at 2nd and 3rd choice schools. ED does not make all that big a difference everywhere. If Vandy is the clear first choice AND it is affordable, I would let him apply ED.
Do his 2nd/3rd choices offer EDII?
I’m not sure why you think there is zero chance. Chances for most all kids are low and to be honest if your paying a private counselor he should know than you about chances… If I understand things correctly if you think he has zero chance the ED means nothing and has no effect on other schools. He can still apply at the other schools they wouldn’t be binding. Again to me it’s a no lose situation
No one can offer you an estimate of admission probability with so little information. Here are a few thoughts:
Vandy is a reach for everyone. Does it look like it would be affordable per the NPC?
Does your S have any hooks? URM, legacy, etc.
What is his unweighted GPA?
Does his high school use Naviance? How does he measure up there? What does his school GC say?
What does he like about Vandy? While a great school, I do not think of Vandy as being particularly strong in environmental sciences…is that what he is looking to major in?
What other schools are on his list and what is his full application strategy (rolling, EA, EDI/II, RD plans)? Other reaches? Targets and safeties?
His 2nd and 3rd choice have ED 2. The admission statistics go down with those, though. My point is that if he goes ED 1 to either of those schools, he will likely get in, but if he waits to be rejected by Vanderbilt, he loses that opportunity. In other words, ED 1 makes a big difference with his 2nd and 3rd choices. He still has a good chance of getting in even ED2, it is just not an overwhelmingly likely chance. This is his decision, but I want him to make it with all the facts and I am less optomistic than our counselor (probably because I will be the one with my son when rejection comes).
MWfan – It is more about the school than the major. The best ES schools are schools he does not want to attend. He loves everything about Vanderbilt including the size, sports spirit and the city feel of being in Nashville. Wake Forest was too far away from WS and Washington and Lee may be too small and rural. He wants to go to a southern school, but also wants selective admission to be with people who care about school. He is not interested in schools like AL or Ole Miss. No hooks but full pay without a problem. Not sure what his UW GPA is. He has mostly As (maybe 2 Bs) in all core subjects and APs – other than Fresh year when his GPA was a weighted 3.4. Made 5s on 3 AP exams and 4s on other 2. UGA might be an option if he gets into honors college. He (and we) feel like we have looked everywhere and that special unicorn of traditional college experience, location (South and urban but not too urban), and smart, driven peers is hard to find.
I’m not sure why you hired the counselor since you seem to more than him or her? At the other schools, my 2 cents worth, I might apply EA which if I understand correctly betters your chances of getting in. People, at least most on the forum, would be more concerned on how to pay Vanderbilt if they got in.
Calculating unweighted GPA is a simple math problem.
No one here can give too much more specific detail about estimating chances etc. given insufficient information.
But probably the best option is to let him make the decision on where to apply ED/etc. to after seeing that he has all of the information available to him. If he makes the ED/etc. decision, then he owns it and is less likely to blame you for any regrets based on the ED/etc. decision.
ED is for dream schools that are affordable. sounds like Vandy for him. You can’t have him wondering “what if” for the rest of his life. you are right, he probably won’t get in because most people don’t. but as long as he is realistic and prepared for the rejection, let him try and you never know. but he needs some safeties that are guaranteed that he likes in case he misses out on choices 2 and 3.
Did you think about Univ of Richmond?
Don’t overthink it. It is impossible to precisely war game admissions at this level.
Your kid loves Vandy, you can pay for Vandy, and he’s got a decent shot if he applies ED. Go ED to Vandy.
Last cycle the middle range for Vandy ED admits was 33-35. Your kid is right in the middle. And those stats include ED2 admits. So you’d guess the stats for ED1 would be a smidge lower.
Just make sure you have a plan B for ED2 and RD since ED is still only a 20% admit rate. Maybe Tulane, SMU, Emory, WUSTL.
And please be skeptical of anyone telling you ED1 doesn’t make a difference at Vandy. Come on. Vandy fills like 54% of it seats via ED!! And that number is even bigger than it appears as compared to ED at other schools. Since unlike the Ivies and NESCACs, Vandy’s ED round generally does not include a ton of non-scholarship recruited athletes.
Just got back from parents weekend. Tons of construction this year around the greek row area, with another super-swank residential college coming online for next year. By the time your kid would get out of the frosh Commons, it is going to be an even more awesome campus and residential experience.
https://admissions.vanderbilt.edu/vandybloggers/2019/02/class-of-2023-early-decision-by-the-numbers/
I agree with not overthinking it!
Both my older kids applied ED to reach schools and neither got in! One ended up at his safety, which he loved and the other got into another reach which he also loved. It all works out! I say, let your son take his chance.
Lol, don’t fall prey to the insistent notion ED is a tip, either. He needs have have his whole app spot-on. That means knowing his match (not just what he likes, but what they want) and ensuring the app/supp are nailed. That’s more than stats and some ECs. It’s in the range of ECs, some impact, what comes through in any writing sections, and more. You want adcoms to say, “Yes! He gets it.”
If V is his top choice and affordable, that’s what ED is for. Don’t get wrapped up in what it does to ED2 or RD. Put the efort into this app.
ANd if he is a great match for the others and applies ED2 or RD, he’s still a good match. Not like they subtract points.
Let him apply ED 1 to Vandy. In the likely event he doesn’t get in, apply ED 2 to one of his other top choices. Once piece of advice - manage his expectations. Make sure he understands that the odds are against him getting in, and that he should be fully prepared for a rejection or deferment.
Super advice. Thank you all. Going to gently manage his expectations but support his decision.
I don’t understand why you said zero chance. Sure it’s a reach for everyone but he sounds in the range so why not try ED?
Also, most schools will tell you there is not much difference in admit rates between ED1 and ED2, and some encourage waiting for ED2 for those candidates who might have a better application to show a bit later. Did you see colleges that specifically said they admit noticeably fewer applicants out of ED2 than ED1?
I get where you are coming from.
Am letting mine “shoot her shot” (as the kids say) at the reach school which is her #1 choice. I expressed my concerns about the risk and asked if she would rather use her ED somewhere where she would have better odds, but she says she is okay with taking the chance. This way she will have no regrets or have to wonder what if.
If Vanderbilt is his very favorite and if he is aware of the risk, I say let him go for it.
Best of luck to him!
But if he DOES get in, can you afford to send him?
Cast a wide net. Disagree that Tulane is a reliable back-up. Admit rate 12.87%! https://president.tulane.edu/state-university-address-2019. Congratulations on excellent credentials. You will go somewhere great!
ED makes a significant difference with respect to Vanderbilt admissions.
OP: I do not see any problem with applying ED to Vanderbilt since it is affordable & since your son is well qualified, and especially since his second and third choice schools offer ED2. Seems like a near perfect plan to me.
His chance of acceptance is zero if he doesn’t apply.
Assuming this is an affordable choice, let him apply. He can submit applications to other schools.