My perfect stats kid didn’t get into either of his EA schools, but ended up getting into even reachier schools regular decision. My way less than perfect stats kid (many B+'s not just freshman year), got into his reachiest school EA, but ended up liking another one even better.
It sounds to me as though your son has as good a chance as anyone. I wouldn’t overthink it. And for what it’s worth the acceptance rate (according to their Common Data Set) is about 2% higher for men than women.
Is he prepared to play the waiting list game with them? Historically, Vanderbilt fills 7-10% of their classes from the wait list. With his high test score but lower GPA, he may end up in that position.
I like @northwesty ‘s suggestions upthread as potential options to explore. Not because they are that much easier admits, but they check many of the boxes your son is looking for. That way if he shoots his shot and misses, he will have other close-to-a-unicorn alternatives to be excited about.
Let him pick Vandy with his Ed. Make sure he had solid backups and make sure he is investigating them as well as Vandy. Let him know and maybe through his counselor that Vandy is a long shot for everyone but heh, sometimes you gotta bet on yourself!
In the Midwest (I say this tounge in cheek… People) its like Vandy is the indicator your getting in elsewhere. If your applying to Northwestern, Wash U or Michigan and Vandy and get rejected from Vandy you usually get into those other schools. If you get accepted by Vandy then you get rejected by those schools… Lol…
At the Michigan parents open house lunch a few years ago we sat with 10 families. The kids got accepted to the above schools but rejected by some name brands here and there. The one school everyone got rejected by was Vandy!! These were families from around the USA every coast etc.
Good Luck.
I agree with looking at Naviance if your school has it. For our high school, Naviance shows a fairly clear picture of who gets into Vandy. And I did some research on the kids who got in ED from our school and they were high stats and legacies. Almost all high stat kids at our school got waitlisted in RD but many got in off of the waitlist. Of course, your school could be different and it’s worth a look.
I’m not sure I understand the problem here. This isn’t restrictive early action. This kid can apply ED to Vandy, and RD to any number of schools. He can apply to any schools with rolling admissions.
What he can NOT do is apply ED anywhere else.
If Vandy is affordable, and his top choice, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t let Vandy make the decision about his enrollment. If he doesn’t apply at all, he can’t get accepted.
I would, however, urge him to submit all of his other RD and rolling applications at the same time as the ED application to Vandy. If he is accepted, and matriculates to Vandy, he will need to withdraw all those others, and decline other acceptances.
With regard to ED2…my personal opinion is that these should be included in his RD application pile.
People are trying to get too theoretical. This will boil down to his app pkg and their needs. No quasi predictive science needed.
His ACT subscores are 36, just one 32/math. Vandy will look at subs. And his superscore Composite is 35, no? I dont see unweighted gpa. It’s letter grades, not how a hs weights. Any AP scores?
Kid likes Vandy. Why tell him to fret over possible WL in March. Tell him to learn all he can about V, what will make him a super candidate, then knock his app put of the park.
Agree with the above. One thing we told our kids is don’t give them a reason to reject you. In other words put the time and research in and really do your best work on the essays. Then, see what happens. Just know that you did everything the right way and you gave yourself the best chance to succeed. After that… Roll the dice. ?
A couple of comments:
–Sounds to me like Vandy is a perfect ED choice as 1) it is his top choice and 2) it is affordable. I would let him give it a shot or else he will always wonder “what if.”
–A college admission officer told me that a candidate at his college will have the same chance of admission ED1 and ED2. He explained to me that ED2 typically has lower acceptance rates because: 1) ED1 has the students with hooks (ex. legacy, recruited athletes etc.) and 2) often students who are a bit weaker wait for ED2 so they can show a good first semester senior year and/or improve standardized test scores.
@happy1: While I agree with most of your above comment, I disagree with the statement regarding ED2 applicants’ reasons for applying ED2 rather than ED1.
My understanding is that many ED2 applicants apply ED2 rather than ED1 because they were not admitted to their first choice school to which they applied ED.
So, what are his 2nd and 3rd choice schools?
Because the second & third choice schools offer ED2, the list should be fairly small among elite colleges & universities. If asked to guess, I suspect that Davidson College may be one due to some similarities to Vanderbilt. Wash & Lee is probably the other.
P.S. It would be interesting to see a list of most selective colleges & universities which offer ED2.
P.P.S. Googled ED2 colleges. A list of 71 schools appeared.
Let’s not guess. 
Better if the OP just tells us. Kind of hard to give too much advice without knowing what other schools strongly interest him.
@Publisher I agree that ED2 is also used by applicants who were rejected by their ED1 school (and did not mean to suggest otherwise). I was just passing on why one admission officer felt the ED2 pool at his college had a lower acceptance rate than ED1. I wanted the OP to understand that applying ED2 as opposed to ED1 does not necessarily lower one’s chance of admission to a college.
I don’t think he’d be wasting his ED shot at Vandy, so I would encourage him to go for it if it’s his first choice and affordable.
It’s not to say he’ll get in but it sounds like he absolutely will not if he gets into his 2nd or 3rd choice ED.
Unclear as to whether or not OP will respond regarding second & third choice schools. Prior posts show an interest in Wash & Lee, Wake Forest University, and University of Richmond all of which offer ED2.
All of those schools have regular decision as well. I’m really unclear why this person is focused on ED2. Sure…have the kid apply ED to Vandy. But then do everything else RD…in my opinion.
I think ED2 is a perfectly good strategy. Why not take advantage of it if one has a clear second choice?
Adcoms don’t sit around dissing kids who apply ED2.
All this is worse when a kid offers a so-so app. Eg, great stats, rigor, but kinda falls asleep for the rest of the app, can’t quite match himself or seems a little disengaged. Then, if you know it’s ED2, you might question the interest. Sometimes, eg, kids have a LoR dated Sept or Oct and then that middling app. Yes, you can guess he was denied ED somewhere. But that’s not an ED2 problem. It’s the app.
Remember, the app is the sole vehicle. And we’re talking holistic.
“Disagree that Tulane is a reliable back-up. Admit rate 12.87%!”
Tulane admissions have gotten pretty complicated over the last few years. But their admit rate shouldn’t be taken at face value. Tulane (great school; had one kid go there) is one of the kings of enrollment management. Among other things, they are great at generating mass quantities of applications. They also have RD and EA and also ED. So admit rates vary widely by admission path. Let’s take a closer look.
The middle 50% ACT for the most recent Tulane class is 31-33. That’s a lot lower than other schools with such a low admit rate. So the OP’s kid is strongly above the 75th percentile for Tulane. Maybe not the safety zone, but pretty matchy I’d say. Compare Vandy, for example, at 33-35. And Tulane also strongly digs full payors.
ED2 to Tulane would be a perfect plan B if Vandy ED1 misses the target. My Tulane kid said her class was brimming with kids whose first choice school was Vandy. Looks like TU had ED2 last cycle, but maybe has eliminated it for this cycle? Worth a call to Tulane to confirm.
If there’s no ED2, you can still apply EA (you likely would be deferred) or RD. The key to getting accepted at TU (without ED) is to show high interest. If a high stat full pay kid convinces TU that you’ll enroll if admitted, you admit chances sky rocket.
You never addressed what “good grades not great” means. If his GPA is low, I would show him the stats for Vanderbilt’s enrolled class - so he understands the competition. I think making an informed decision is important - but then I would 1000% support my kid in their decision. There’s a psychological impact of a parent telling their kid that they’re not good enough that I haven’t seen addressed. If their stats are widely off, I’d certainly let them know the facts - but if their stats are in line - I sure as hell am not going to be the one to say don’t give a shot - even if it is a lottery school. And I’m saying this from the perspective of a parent of a kid gunning for a particular D1 program where their times are not there yet. I’ve shown him the times and let him know where he could expect coach support. After that - it’s his journey - and I will stand on the sideline and cheer him on whatever the outcome.