My S21 will be 21 in September and he can’t wait to open a sports betting account. He was approached by a FanDuel sales rep at a bar at an MLB game last night with a ‘special’ deal.
I know the basics of how sports betting works. But, are there differences between the various vendors…FanDuel, DraftKing, Caesar’s, PointsBet, etc?
Any resources that would allow me to educated and up to speed would be much appreciated. I am going to impress upon S21 that he needs to become an expert before he makes bets, and I will continue to ask him questions until he can answer them.
Of course, I can’t control what he does with his money…but I can help him understand that things aren’t set up for him to succeed at making money on these apps/sites.
I loathe that colleges are entering partnerships with these companies too. It’s inappropriate especially as a high proportion of their students can’t even legally bet!
I don’t have information, but I will say when my nephew started this at 21, he kept insisting he was never gambling with his own money. It’s 4 years later and at least he’s stopped saying it! But he is in to it deep as are many of his friends. A friend with a kid the same age was telling me what his kid is up to and then said “ just keep them away from the sport’s betting and they’ll be ok!”
I applaud you for taking the time to get educated and guide your kid.
Thanks for the reply. I have heard some horror stories…all college age men or in their 20s who margined their accounts. All have too much hubris and think they can do better than the averages, or that they will win and not lose. That’s my s21 for sure.
On Venmo, people often fail to make their settings private so everyone can see their transactions. My 22-year-old nephew seems to play a lot of poker! I’m not sure if my sister knows. He’s struggling to finish engineering school.
I am terrible at gambling, but the IT guys at work told me to hop on all of the apps when online betting opened up in Massachusetts. I downloaded 3 apps, deposited $10 dollars to Draft Kings, Fan Duel and MGM, then bet the $10 with each. I was immediately rewarded with $200 in bonus bets by each app. I haven’t deposited a single dollar since.
The house always wins in the long run. I won’t ever deposit any more money, but I have the willpower to make that a reality. Gambling isn’t my thing.
My 19-year-old gave me a bet last weekend on UFC. I bet $50 and won $425. I immediately withdrew $225 and I told him he could text me UFC bets this year until we ran through the $200 remaining. He knows A LOT about UFC, so we’ll probably make some money with $10 bets.
Funny you mention that about venmo…everytime I go into venmo I see all the activity for some people I hardly know, but sent money to once. I’ve seen some strange expenditures!
I actually have made some money on Formula One racing. Initially I tried to hit big on underdogs, but there’s a reason underdogs are underdogs. Making peanuts on sure things over and over again adds up over time. I work with guys that are very impressive gamblers. On a work trip to Vegas one guy won $65k. I struggle predicting a coin flip.
I’m not sure that’s true? Just like the stock and bond markets I expect well researched people have more success and also that there are inefficiencies. But, I’m just learning.
Making money in the long-term on sports betting is extremely hard.
Here is what you do. Tell your son that you will be the house for all his bets for a year, I bet you are the one that comes out ahead. You can even give him a $200 bonus at the start.
As an alternative to a theoretical analysis of markets, consider encouraging your son to place paper bets with you under disciplined conditions. This should suffice:
Use official betting lines.
Let him pick the winners against the line.
Your teams, by default, will be those he doesn’t pick.
Sample 20 games across any time frame.
See who performed better.
Some might think your son would have a huge advantage because (1) he presumably knows more about sports than you and (2) you allowed him his choice of teams. However, under most theoretical models, you will have an even chance.
Overall I have as good of sports knowledge as he does, and likely (!) better impulse/emotional control. Maybe I will become the house and/or bookie for him and all his friends
Based on your knowledge of sports, you might try a second trial, in which you pick all 20 games against the line, with your son getting the default teams.
Years ago, I once won an informal (no money) pick pool (about a dozen people) for a pro league’s season games considering the spread. My method was to pick against the teams from larger metro areas and closer to Nevada, on the theory that such teams would be overbet by their fans, causing the spreads to shift unfavorably for those teams because the betting houses wanted balanced bets. This was without trying to analyze the actual teams or matchups.
The general principle of this approach is that emotional bettors can create inefficient markets, and that purely rational bettors can then benefit from these inefficiencies. In actuality, however, well-funded disinterested gamblers tend to absorb these inefficiencies quickly, thereby leading betting lines toward difficult-to-exploit levels. Nonetheless, your anecdote suggests that you performed well. If you would like to say, did you?
