<p>City in decline:</p>
<p>Posted on Sun, Apr. 17, 2005
Tom Ferrick Jr. | Even in decline, city's hopes rise
By Tom Ferrick Jr.
Inquirer Columnist</p>
<p>The best news of the week for Philadelphia - maybe the best news of the year - was release of new census data that showed the city lost nearly 7,000 people in 2004.</p>
<p>You may wonder: Why is losing population a cause for applause?</p>
<p>It is not, of course - unless you put the numbers in context. The context being, it's the lowest year-to-year loss in residents in several decades.</p>
<p>According to census estimates, the city's population totals 1,470,151.</p>
<p>As my colleague Nathan Gorenstein reported Friday, the latest numbers give hope that Philadelphia's 40-year slide in population may be ending.</p>
<p>This would be a good thing.</p>
<p>The best strategy for the long-term health of the city is to minimize population loss and preserve our base of middle-class residents.</p>
<p>A worst-case scenario would be continued population decline and flight of the middle class.</p>
<p>That's what happened beginning in earnest in the 1970s. In that decade, Philadelphia lost 260,000 residents - nearly 13 percent of its population.</p>
<p>In the 1980s, the city lost 102,000 more residents. In the 1990s, we lost about 68,000 residents. So far this decade, the loss totals 47,000.</p>
<p>The rate of population decline is declining. The number has gone down each year in this decade.</p>
<p>Why? Take your pick among some or all of these reasons.</p>
<p>Niche market</p>
<p>The Street administration credits the glorious achievements of the Street administration - in stabilizing neighborhoods, improving schools, etc.</p>
<p>Demographers tie population trends to job trends - lose jobs and you lose people and vice versa.</p>
<p>In 2004, Philadelphia did not lose jobs - there were about 683,000 people employed in the city at the beginning of the year and about 683,000 people employed at the end of the year. (It's another example of no news being good news. Usually, the number of jobs has declined from year to year.)</p>
<p>Then, we have the real estate boom, which has fueled actual population growth in certain neighborhoods, particularly Center City.</p>
<p>There also is what I call the Ecclesiastes Factor, as in, To everything there is a season, and this decade may be the season for big cities.</p>
<p>Paul Levy, the savvy head of the Center City District, likes to point out that the image of cities took a lot of hits in the 1970s. Look at the films of that era: Taxi Driver and Death Wish, to name two.</p>
<p>Recently, though, city living has taken on a new lustre. Cities are places that people - especially young people - want to be. America is decidedly - and probably for the foreseeable future - a suburban nation. But cities are a thriving niche market.</p>
<p>The bigger question - and one the new census data cannot answer - is what about the middle class?</p>
<p>In three parts</p>
<p>The census gives us one number: a net of 7,000 residents lost. It doesn't tell us how many moved into the city, how many moved out, and the income of the arrivals and departees.</p>
<p>When it comes to wealth, Philadelphia - like ancient Gaul - est divisa in partes tres.</p>
<p>About one-third of the families have annual incomes under $25,000. These are the poor. About one-third have incomes over $50,000 a year. These are the middle class. Another third have incomes between $25,000 and $50,000 a year. These are the in-betweens.</p>
<p>The long-term trend is a decrease in the number of middle class, an increase in the number of poor and the in-betweens.</p>
<p>(For instance, in 1960, only 17 percent of the city's families were poor and 36 percent were middle class.)</p>
<p>If this trend continues, the city eventually could reach a point where there are not enough taxpayers - people with assets, income and property - to sustain city services.</p>
<p>What happens then? Ask Chester. Ask Camden. Ask Pittsburgh.</p>
<p>The city becomes, in effect, a ward of the state - dependent on state money to operate everyday services.</p>
<p>That's why the latest census numbers are cause for applause.</p>
<p>Mild, hopeful, let's-keep-our-fingers-crossed applause.</p>