Common statistical fallacy, called the “ecological fallacy”. Here’s the Wikipedia definition “An ecological fallacy (or ecological inference fallacy) is a logical fallacy in the interpretation of statistical data where inferences about the nature of individuals are deduced from inference for the group to which those individuals belong.”
Applicants are not identical, nor are they chosen randomly by Wesleyan. So guessing your chances from the group chances is not a realistic projection. Let me give you another example. The number of boys vs girls at your HS is 50:50. If we choose a student at random, 1/2 the time it is a boy. Your particular chances of you being a boy are not 50:50. You are, or you are not.
Similarly the “double the chances” at Wesleyan is the result of summing various groups; recruited athletes (100% chance), low-scoring kids (0% chance), etc. “double the chances” is only meaningful when sampling from the ED applicants. You are not composed of the same proportions of whatever factors Wesleyan considers in the overall applicant pool. Hence your chances are not the same as those of the overall applicant pool.