For those who are not sports recruits, legacies, URM, first-generation, and who don’t live in Hawaii (no offense), what are the actual chances for an U.S. unhooked applicant in the regular round - in which only 1000-1100 students are accepted?
And if anyone wants to venture further, what are the chances for an unhooked applicant who is not valedictorian/36/2400/Intel winner etc?
I’ve always wanted to ask this 
In our experience from last year, the number of Harvard acceptances was the same as the number of school districts in our metropolitan area, where the largest school district has close to 40 high schools. However, many accepted students were from private prep schools. Our odds are still better than some other less populated states.
Sure, it’s possible – and you can verify that by individually going through the decision threads and noting unhooked applicants who were admitted. If you’re looking for an approximate number of non-recruited athletes, non-legacies, non-URM, non-valedictorians, non-first-gens, non-small state acceptances, it’s anyone’s guess as that kind of information is not supplied by colleges.
Since most of the hooked applicants are accepted early, I expect that the RD unhooked rate would be the same as the overall RD rate.
^^ URM’s will still be about 20% of the RD accepted pool. Also, First gens, low SES, and additional legacies will be accepted.
^^ My guess, based upon what Yale has said, is that your URM percentage for Harvard in the RD round is too high: https://thechoice.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/04/29/legacy-2/
I don’t think that being valedictorian or having 2400 or 26 scores are key for anyone honestly. You have to have more going on than that, and those with lower scores or rank aren’t at a disadvantage either if they do some interesting things or even if they are just “good people.” Applicants need to meet a benchmark for stats and then it is about the whole person and how that person will contribute to the whole class, hence the term “holistic admissions.”