When you adjust the overall number for early admissions and deferrals from early to regular, you end up with rates much lower that the “advertised” overall admissions rate.
At Yale, Overall 5.91% drops to 3.89% for those considered in RD
At Harvard Overall 4.5% drops to about 2.6% for those considered in RD round.
You can debate what the “real” early admit rate is, adjusting for the usual hooked suspects (athletic recruits, legacy, development/donors, children of celebrities and politicians, etc.) but regardless of what you think the “real” early odds are for an unhooked applicant, the RD odds look particularly dismal.
sources: http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/yale-university/2134212-class-of-2023-rd-acceptance-rate-3-89-overall-5-91.html#latest http://talk.qa.collegeconfidential.com/harvard-university/2134346-record-low-4-5-percent-of-harvard-college-applicants-accepted-to-class-of-2023.html#latest