This is a bigger issue and it depends what you mean by competitive.
Some privates may have a pipeline and maybe a top 30% goes to a top school. Your school will have stats based on who goes where - whereas you can be a stud at a public and for a U of Texas that goes by rank - that helps.
You can be a stud anywhere and get turned down. My daughterās valedictorian with a 36 ACT, 4.0/4.6 or so (with 10 or 11 APs) was 0 for 16 in the top 20 and only got NYU full pay and attends UTK.
I look at the schools from the top privates here in Nashville - and I see some kids going to Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee while others go to Harvard and Princeton.
Personally - I think it comes to finances and fit. If you need the money - i.e. the private school is draining you or will impact future ability to pay for college, then a change might be needed. Many kids get into expensive schools but choose less selective because theyāre typically less expensive - and many today have Honors Colleges to help close that gap with the āelite.ā.
If the student is thriving at the private school, with all their friends and everything else and you can afford it, why would you change? You could move to the public, have a disastrous experience and not get the result you intend because itās not as simple as - I do ok at a private so Iād kick butt in public. The student would need to make friends, class sizes are different, methods of teaching are different. btw - sheād probably make friends with the top kids - and guess what, theyāll also be aiming for top schools. Yes, itās peer pressure and it stinks but itās what they have to adjust to.
Where, in my opinion, your error is - is applying to select colleges - not applying but making that the must have if you will.
You can apply to them - and there are no guarantees. And guess what, what if your child doesnāt get into what you call a selective college - can be from either. Or what if your child is not interested in that college - both mine got into very selective schools and yet both are at safeties, by choice.
And hereās the other thing - everyone thinks - if I go to a selective school, I have it made. And if I donāt, I donāt or it will be tough. And many kids choose a safety over the selective admit anyway - hereās two examples - mine:
In the end, the student matters more than the school (IMHO). Kid 1 chose Alabama over Purdue for engineering so he could have his own room. He interned with Ga Tech kids and returned a second year. They werenāt invited back. He had 5 offers and 20 interviews in the Fall and is working with kids from Purdue and other great selective schools like Michigan and Case Western.
Student two chose College of Charleston over select schools such as Washington & Lee. Sheās in Intā Studies/Poli Sci. Interned for the state this summer. Is doing the DC semester in the fall and is interning for a top think tank. Had now 7 offers overall including the WH yesterday.
There are no assurances no matter what you do. But selective or elite does not necessarily mean a great outcome. And it takes more than just great grades and test scores.
Thereās also no assurance that you have success at an elite (we know of plenty who donāt) or that you canāt have success at a non elite - we know plenty who do and my kids will add to that list.
Iāve been looking at Cornellās career board - and itās really fantastic - very clear and transparent. I wish all published like them. Whether engineering or other majors - guess how kids are finding jobs - internet boards (presumably indeed) + linkedin. Yes, they have job fairs and some are getting from professor leads or on campus interviews - but few relative to are finding them on internet sites. Itās a new world today.
Grad school in the mix? Harvard Law is represented by 174ā¦from Cal State Northridge to Oakland U to Fairleigh Dickinson to Auburn to LSU to Montclair State to Central Florida to Mizzou to - you get the picture.
I say all this because I hate for you to make a decision based on something that has no assurance and even if you get the collegiate result you hope for, thereās still no assurances. In the end, I truly believe itās about the kid - a stud, who hustles, will be that no matter where they go and one who doesnāt hustle will struggle.
There are reasons to make the move you want to make - but assuming your current situation is affordable and the student is happy and receiving a great education, it seems that the risks far outweigh the rewards - because if the student is a āwinnerā - then whether they go to Connecticut College instead of Cornell, or Delaware instead of Dartmouth, theyāre going to be just fine. If the student is happy, why take that away from them?
Sorry for the ramble - but I have strong views (right or wrong) on this one.
Best of luck.