Taking a gamble on some mega-reaches

<p>Hi guys I was wondering if I could get some chances and some recommendations regarding which colleges I should apply to.
GPA: 3.6 uw, huge upwards trend (3.9 junior, 4.0 senior)
Course load: Pretty good. I have taken plenty of APs. I don’t know if it necessarily most difficult possible but then again I don’t know if anyone takes the most difficult possible at my school.
Class Rank: Doesn’t rank, tentatively top 10%
Strength of School: Top New England private
SAT: 780 CR, 790 M, 700 WR
SAT 2s: Math 2 800 USH 780 WH 770 Lit 730
APs all 5s Calc, USH, Euro History
ECS: Mediocre for top schools. I have lots of service, lots of political oriented stuff, a little leadership, and some okay achievements.
Awards: Commended Scholar, AP Scholar, some other not so impressive stuff
Recs: One teacher rec is awesome. Another should be pretty good. Counselor rec should also be pretty good.
Essays: I’m a pretty exceptional writer (isn’t everyone on College Confidential?). My common app is nothing incredible but I thought it was alright. I can put together a great essay under pressure but I always find myself procrastinating and experiencing writers block when given an extended period of time. My University of Chicago essays were mixed; one I thought was very strong, the other seemed a little confused. I have yet to start on any of these other supplements because my list was pending my EA decisions.
Hooks: Diddly squat
I got into a couple safeties, as well as BC. I got deferred to the University of Chicago which was my dream school. Basically there are very few schools I would go to over BC (all listed below) so I have decided I might as well apply to them all as long as I have any shot whatsoever. So if anyone can pick some that like high SAT candidates and would be likely to overlook relatively low GPA that’d be great. Please don’t just tell me they are all reaches; I’m well aware. But some schools I have a 20% chance, some a 5% chance, and some a 0% chance and I’d like to know which.
Thanks a lot,
Notre Dame
Princeton
Stanford
Columbia
Northwestern
Pennsylvania
Yale</p>

<p>nice…for many people, BC is not a safety, but hey you got in</p>

<p>Notre Dame - match (50%)
Princeton - reach (5%)
Stanford - reach (3%)
Columbia - reach (2-5% depending on the college)
Northwestern - reach (15-20%)
Pennsylvania - reach (2-5% depending on the college)
Yale - reach (1-5%)</p>

<p>Thanks Siglio.
To be honest, those numbers seem somewhat low. Using my handy dandy knowledge of statistics, the chances of acceptance at one of the bottom 6 schools (Notre Dame is too much of an outlier to include) would be around 30% based on your numbers. I would like to add I have legacy at Northwestern. I’m also a little perplexed as to why you believe my chance at UPenn is so low; I was under the impression that is a tick less competitive than the other listed ivies. I also thought that Princeton and Stanford would be significantly more likely targets given the fact they ignore Freshman grades. Without Freshman grades, my GPA would be a 3.8.
I have heard that there is an “academic index” which some colleges use to quantify applicants academic wise. If anyone knows of an academic index calculator which takes into account how each individual school weighs grades, rank, courseload, SATs, SAT 2s etc, that would be great.</p>

<p>Ill just go bump myself</p>