Terrible Freshman Year, turned it around... What are my chances of getting into top schools?

I had a 2.0 GPA freshman year. There were a couple of serious things going on in my life, but they do not change the fact that my grades were very poor that year. Going into sophomore year I was still dealing with these things for a good amount of time and my first semester was not great either. I ended 10th with a 3.1 GPA. It took a long time, but I got past my “obstacles”(if you will) and junior year I had straight A’s , ending the year with a 4.4 GPA. as of now, my cumulative GPA is a 3.2. It is very frustrating for me to see this because I know I am capable of so much more, and with my motivation now, I am worried I will not be able to get into the schools I want.
I took one AP junior year and got a 5 on the AP exam, I am the president of a political club at my school, I have won various awards for Latin Academic Team and participate in 3 other clubs. I was a finalist in the ARI essay contest and have won a couple other short story/poetry contests. I have logged a little over 300 hours volunteering and have been working since sophomore year. I got a 2120 on the SAT.
Next year I will be in 4 AP classes and all others honors. (Even then, IF I were to get straight A’s senior year, my highest possible cumulative GPA will be 3.6)
My top schools are UC-SB, UC-Berkeley, UWash, UNC, Duke, and Tulane (I am OOS for all of these places) based on interest in specific programs.
However, I am worried that my GPA will be impossible to overlook in admissions.
I am not looking for anyone to tell me how I should have done better from the start; I know that and can not change the past.
I am just wondering if anyone else has been in my situation and if anyone can provide some insight on how my GPA will affect my chances of getting into these schools. Also, if you have any advice on ways to better my chances, that would be great. Thanks!!

–Also, before anyone says anything, I understand how low the acceptance rates are at these schools and that some, UNC particularly are very hard for OOS to get into.

I’m going to be honest here, and I’m not going to sugarcoat anything or give you false hope. You need to calculate your UC GPA. If it is under a 3.4, you will not be considered for admission. Even if you do meet the minimum GPA requirement, admission to top UC’s has been getting more and more competitive. To put it bluntly, you stand little to no chance. Your chances for Duke are extremely slim as well, I would not recommend applying there. Your GPA for UW is certainly low, and even if you did get in, you’d be paying full price. That’s another reach. Tulane is a reach as well, since your GPA is below average there and that 2.0 GPA freshman year might scare them off. UNC is a large reach as well, as it gets some extremely well qualified OOS applicants, and many are still turned away. I would highly recommend that you lower your sights to less selective schools, preferably in your state unless you want to pay OOS tuition. There’s just no way to cover up or justify that massive blemish of your freshman year when there are much more qualified applicants trying to get into these schools. Good luck to you in your college search.

There are 3000+ great colleges. You don’t have to apply to the schools that get tens of thousands of applications.

Check your UC GPA. For UCB, you need 4.1+.

UC GPA does not include Freshman grades so only 10-11th grades are considered. Here is the calculator for the UC GPA:

http://rogerhub.com/gpa-calculator-uc

The UC’s put the most emphasis on GPA/Test Scores/HS rigor and essays.

Your HS coure rigor is lacking with only 1 AP class Junior year. Your GPA is very low for the majority of UC’s, but your SAT is competitive for the all but probably UCLA/UCB.

Here is a link that show average UC GPA/SAT/ACT scores from last years admits at each UC:

http://admission.universityofcalifornia.edu/counselors/files/uc-freshman-application-data.pdf

You can compare your stats to the stats listed above. Senior grades will not help your admission since GPA is based on 10-11th grades only. Good senior grades will help you maintain your provisional UC admission if accepted. Senior year course rigor will be noted.

I think you will have a difficult time in getting a UC acceptance except for maybe UCM/UCR and an outside chance at UCSC.
Good Luck and FYI, as an OOS applicant you need a UC GPA of 3.4 to apply and expect to pay $55K/year to attend. Little to no financial aid available as an OOS student.