The 2009 Student Bubble Burst

<p>So there's going to be a rise in the number of applicants, or so I've heard. Children (I mean applicants) are going to come out crawling on all fours attacking university doors who'll take in like...so few. <em>points at one kid</em></p>

<p>IS THIS TRUE?</p>

<p>I'm really, really getting scared hearing this. I'm not the best applicant (to their reaches, who is), and to add to it, I'm an international. </p>

<p>How badly is this going to affect chances and acceptance rates?</p>

<p>Also, is Carnegie Mellon going to become more competitive because of Randy Pausch's popularity? This isn't actually like that obama thread for columbia -- if I think I'd be taught by a professor who's somewhat like Randy, I'd apply ED to a safety.</p>

<p>Acceptances rates are going to lower this year than last year, most probably. More kids (the baby boom echo is peaking around the High School Class of 2008-2010) are going to apply to more schools and schools at every tier is going to feel the effects.</p>

<p>From the New York Times, Jan. 17, 2008:</p>

<p>"Officials said the trend was a result of demographics, aggressive recruiting, the ease of online applications and more students applying to ever more colleges as a safety net. The swelling population of 18-year-olds is not supposed to peak until 2009, when the largest group of high school seniors in the nation’s history, 3.2 million, are to graduate. "</p>

<p><a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/education/17admissions.html?_r=1&oref=slogin%5B/url%5D"&gt;http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/17/education/17admissions.html?_r=1&oref=slogin&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p>

<p>Taking a somewhat different tack...</p>

<p>If the articles are correct, there will probably be more applications this year than ever before. Partly that's because there are just more kids applying, and partly because the kids applying are applying to more places.</p>

<p>In the first case, you can look at it like this: There will be incrementally more kids applying than last year, but all the kids who are now starting their freshman year at college were reading the same scary stories last year, and for the most part those who were prepared to go to college have settled somewhere and are beginning their college life. Are fewer of them in their "first choice school"? Maybe, but most of the time they will attach to the school they're in and have a rich college experience there.</p>

<p>As for the fact that many kids are applying to more schools, when it all shakes out they can only attend one, so admissions officers take that into consideration. Perhaps they admit a higher percentage to start with since many will choose to go elsewhere, or at the most selective schools they may make more use of waitlists. But in any case, you will in all likelihood end up somewhere and this time next year you'll be experiencing all the joys and adventures and difficulties and challenges that are pretty universal to college students everywhere.</p>

<p>So don't worry. 'Cuz what can you do about it anyway? Just apply widely, keep your mind open about your different options, and enjoy the journey.</p>

<p>^ That was a damn good post.</p>

<p>Keep in mind that there will likely be some impact on college applications for 4 year colleges, especially expensive ones, due to families who are experiencing economic hardship due to the economy. Some will go to the two year CC, others a less expensive state school, still others taking a merit scholarship and leaving their spot at a "better" school open. In any case, there are enough colleges for every graduating senior to attend and most end up at the right one for them.</p>

<p>^ However, with the new financial aid initiatives at the top-end schools (think Harvard and the like), competitive to them is going to be even more intense.</p>