<p>I want to emphasize the importance of expressing interest. Being from NJ can cut either way: LU could think "Oh good, geographical diversity", as you are thinking--OR LU could think "Well, why would she want to come to Wisconsin? How do we know that she has a serious interest?"</p>
<p>Also, don't forget that "acceptance rate" and "middle 50% stats" look at different groups of students.</p>
<p>Acceptance rate is based on all who apply, while the middle 50% statistic looks at those who actually choose to attend. So, it is quite possible for a school like LU that acceptance rates for SAT > 1390 are much higher than the rates for those in the 1190-1390 group. For a hypothetical example:</p>
<p>SAT > 1390: 40 apply, 40 are accepted, 5 attend.
1190 < SAT < 1390: 40 apply, 23 are accepted, 10 attend.
SAT < 1190: 20 apply, 5 are accepted, 5 attend.</p>
<p>Overall: 100 apply, 68 accepted, 20 attend.</p>
<p>Then you have an overall aceptance rate of 68% (as reported by College Board), but in your D's range the acceptance rate is only 57% (23 out of 40). And, with your D apparently near the bottom of that middle 50% range, her implied acceptance chances in the hypothetical example would likely be less than 57%. </p>
<p>So I would consider Lawrence as no better than 50/50, looking solely at SAT data. If she applied ED, though, her chances would apparently go way up. Almost 100% of LU's small number of ED applicants were accepted, according to the College Board data that I looked at.</p>