The college you end attending: Is this actually determined in middle school?

Not all courses billed as just cal mean they are inferior to the AP equivalent. AoPS cal says right up front it is not an AP prep, but the content is actually more complex than your typical AP BC class.

Part of AP prep is prepping for the exam structure and FRQ format. My ds did take the AP exam, but he had to spend time on his calculator skills bc AoPS focuses on proofs, not calculator type problems.

So, students can have mastery exceeding what is taught in a typical AP class and still not be prepared to take the AP test without spending time mastering format. The courses content needs to teach to the AP test to be billed AP.