The college you end attending: Is this actually determined in middle school?

@ucbalumnus
My school’s math track is structured kind of strangely- for example, I think the AP Calc BC class gets merged with HL Math for the second semester?
For myself and other friends who were two grade levels ahead, we were what I consider “normal smart”. As in, smart enough to place in and get As in the accelerated math classes, but not enough to take HL Math. At my school, the teacher for HL Math is notoriously difficult, so that scared off some students. Also, sophomores sign up for HL Math, whereas for HOTA, HL foreign languages, and HL sciences, students sign up in junior year. It’s entirely possible that students are deterred by the longer committment and the thought that if they drop out of IB after junior year, they’ll have a less than stellar grade in HL Math (only one or two students get As) and no IB diploma to show for it.