There ain’t no mystery folks: geodiversity, URM, first gen, orchestra, recruited athlete, legacy (similar to colleges), and sure just plain lucky. These are the big predictors of who gets in and who doesn’t. All our kids can do is be their best, and work their hardest. But aside from that, if they don’t check a box, its pretty hard unless you’re lucky to get in to the elites.
^^The problem is “luck” doesn’t work for most folks. Agree that luck plays a role especially in kids who don’t tic off a box. But unfortunately, there are so many well qualified “unlucky” students, so I think we need to have some type of paradigm that helps us stack the odds in favor of the student who wants in and can differentiate him or herself from the hundreds of other well qualified applicants.