The REAL chances of admittance - Lessons from Lehigh

For a different view of standardized test scores https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-truth-about-the-sat-and-act-1520521861?mod=searchresults&page=2&pos=4 May be a pay wall issue so here are the headline/bullet points of the article/study:

"The Truth About the SAT and ACT
Myths abound about standardized tests, but the research is clear: They provide an invaluable measure of how students are likely to perform in college and beyond

Myth: Tests Only Predict First-Year Grades

Myth: Tests Are Not Related to Success in the Real World

Myth: Beyond a Certain Point, Higher Scores Don’t Matter

Myth: Common Alternatives to Tests Are More Useful

Myth: Tests Are Just Measures of Social Class

Myth: Test Prep and Coaching Produce Large Score Gains

Myth: Tests Prevent Diversity in Admissions"

The authors of the study, “Drs. Kuncel and Sackett are professors of industrial-organizational psychology at the University of Minnesota. This essay is adapted from their chapter in “Measuring Success: Testing, Grades and the Future of College Admissions,” a new edited volume published by Johns Hopkins University Press. In the past they have received research funding from the College Board, which administers the SAT.”

Our GC told us if you live within a few hundred miles and don’t visit, it’s a big red flag for them as far as yield protection goes…

Thank you for posting this! I’ve recently started reading everything I can because DS’s search is so different than his two older sisters. This is something that DS needs to understand because his stats put him in the very capable category but not a sure thing because of perceived options.

Lehigh is on his list for CS and we do plan to visit this summer. We live several states away but my DB lives in Philly.

I hate to think he could be rejected because the school doesn’t “need” more achievers. I guess at the end of the day, it will work out and there are plenty of good options.

Also remember @drewsmom17, that as a male majoring in CS, it is a harder admit. Lehigh tries for an equal gender admission and as it’s engineering and CS departments skew more male, males are admitted at a lower rate than females.

Lehigh was very transparent that they want students who want them and that they are trying to recruit females and URM’s.

Lehigh always loved numbers, so they would love this thread I think.

From the insiders I knew a few years ago, they were trying to get away from a certain preppy frat guy type and get some more serious minded students. The school was high in my sons list but he withdrew after applying ed2 elsewhere. I always wondered if he’d have gotten in.

@gallentjill

You are actually completely missing the forest for the trees in your original post.

The real story is that Lehigh ED is one admissions game and Lehigh RD is a completely different one. Blending the two games into one makes no sense.

Lehigh has a 60% ED admit rate. SIXTY percent. Lehigh fills 54% of its seats via ED. Lehigh’s overall ACT range is 29-32. Strong, but not all that high. As long as you apply ED, Lehigh isn’t all that hard to get in. And it is quite easy to predict if you will get in ED as well.

That’s a totally different message than what your OP suggests. That Lehigh is incredibly difficult to get into – a place where a 34-36 ACT score gives you a one-third admit chance. That’s obviously massively misleading given that the 25-75 ACT range is 29-32.

Here is the eye opener. If you want to get into a school that is a big ED user, then you should apply ED. Your odds will be better than a coin toss in Lehigh’s case.

But if you don’t apply ED, then you’ll have lottery odds. Lehigh RD admit rate is probably about 20%.

ED is a very powerful tool that permits a school to look much more selective than it actually is in reality. If an ED loving school (Duke, Penn, Vandy, NW, Lehigh etc.) got rid of ED, its overall admit rate would instantly increase massively.

just think about it 35 years ago Lehigh was my safety school. Times have definitely changed! For many schools that want to product yield, if you can afford it, ED is the way to go. But your EFC is high enough, and hoping for merit , then it makes ED a harder pill to swallow, and one has to take chances on RD. My feeling lately is the no matter what they say DI is important for non top 20 schools. They want to know that this is the, or a top choice, and not just another application. Thus why high stats dont always guarantee admission for many schools with less that 50 percent acceptance. DI doesnt have to be visiting the campus if not economically feasible, but at least being in touch with your Ad rep. At least this is my feeling about the process having been through it once and about it go through it again.

@drewsmom17 Also, be sure to have him interview. So many who were unhappy with their result this year indicated that they did not. It’s the best opportunity for him to show admissions that he is aware of what Lehigh has to offer and how he would fit in. Students can’t afford to let things like interviews go in this kind of admissions environment, especially when universities offer regional interviews (as Lehigh does).

@northwesty Good point. When we were biting our nails over RD, I was wishing my son had just been certain early on and gone for ED. At least it worked out for him, but 60% gives a student a great shot if they can bring themselves to commit.

No question @northwesty. I noted the same thing about Skidmore a few posts down. I think the point we are all making is that high stats kids need to stop thinking of this whole collection of schools as easy matches or safeties. Yet, people still do, to the extent that there is shock and dismay all over these boards when high stats kids fail to get accepted. If I could do ED for my daughter, I would. I think many of us would. At least, I’m going in with eyes open.

“IMHO, if your kid isn’t going to apply ED, and ED applications / acceptances are published (some, but not all, school’s put them in the CDS), you absolutely should recalculate the RD acceptance rate when determining if it’s a reach (and how much of a reach).”

THIS!!!

At many schools the side door (ED, EA, SCEA, REA) has now become the front door (half or more of the seats awarded this way). So the overall/blended admit rate these days is close to meaningless.

You need to assess the odds of the game that your kid is actually playing. If you rely on the blended data, you could significantly over or under-estimate the odds.

Lehigh (great school) is actually still a very safe admit – if you are applying ED.

Penn has a 9% overall admit rate, which is highly misleading in both directions. More like 20% in ED and like 4% in RD.

@northwesty you raise some good points about the ED game, but there is definitely still yield protection in the RD round. No doubt.

Something else to consider, Lehigh is one of the schools ranked in the Top 50 where families come from the highest 1% ($630k+). It also ranks highly as a school to consider if full pay. Some families with high stats students don’t realize the role this can play along with needing a female athlete in xxx or a male who can play xxx instrument. If not a full pay family, or if needing merit, it can help better understand the odds going into applications.

I hate the ED game. If schools guaranteed they would consider ED applicants exactly the same as RD from a merit and FA perspective, it would be great. Without that, it’s too financially risky.

@deb922 I know, I don’t think he’s aware of that yet either. It was actually an easier search for my solid, good students with closer to average scores. DS is wrestling with wanting the prestige program vs. the reality of finances and options.

@stardustmom if Lehigh stays on his list, we will definitely look into this. Thanks!

If a student attends a large school with long term Naviance data they may be able to find safety’s, at least at schools where the GC has a good relationship with the university. For example in prior years she was able to tell students with certain scores and grades that Tulane was a safety. It admitted a huge number of kids from our school and had never turned down kids with certain grades/ scores. This year she had info that those usual rules wremt going to apply ( because of prior over enrollment) and wouldn’t call it a safety.

If a student attends a large school with long term Naviance data they may be able to find safety’s, at least at schools where the GC has a good relationship with the university. For example in prior years she was able to tell students with certain scores and grades that Tulane was a safety. It admitted a huge number of kids from our school and had never turned down kids with certain grades/ scores. This year she had info that those usual rules wremt going to apply ( because of prior over enrollment) and wouldn’t call it a safety.

@BKSquared

The article you quoted concludes as follows

“Standardized tests are just tools—very effective tools—but they provide invaluable information to admissions offices. They identify those students who need help catching up with fundamental skills and those who are ready to tackle advanced material and rapidly accelerate in their learning.”

That is the point of holistic admissions. Money can and does buy you a high standardized test score. It is one tool out of many to be considered.

@northwesty, a bit cynical, but not a bad institutional strategy.

Use ED to load up on high stats kids and other kids to fill institutional needs. In RD admit only kids who have Lehigh as their dream school (and probably don’t have high stats) as well as admits and merit for those high-stats kids who are superstars that you’re trying to steal from Ivies/equivalents.

Then you both meet your stats profile as well as have a student body that is really excited about Lehigh and may also get a few superstars.

High stats kids who aren’t very special and apply RD would lose out, though.

I think a lot of people on CC like to look at their waitlists and rejections as yield management or some version of Tufts Syndrome to explain them away/make themselves feel better. I think that does play in to some degree but it neglects the fact that these colleges who practice holistic admissions aren’t valuing stats above everything else. There are thresholds, I’m sure, but the students who are being accepted are being accepted for other components of their applications, frankly. This isn’t a game of the highest scores/GPA wins.

And all the high stat kids who can’t do ED look at the next rung down in selectivity hoping for EA and merit aid and suddenly there are no schools left for B and B+ students who also really deserve a chance at college. How soon before all the colleges that change lives are over run? Hope I’m overreacting a bit, but it seems thats where we’re headed.

And at the same time we’re suppose to somehow shield our kids from killing themselves in the rat race of crazy expectations. I think I need a glass of wine.