Too many reaches, not enough safeties?

Im a current Junior looking to narrow down the schools I want to apply to. Here are my stats:

WGPA: 4.3
UWGPA: 3.96
ACT: 31 (school mandated practice test)
Class rank: 40 out of 510
ECs: Self taught in Korean (have the SAT II score to prove it), Beta Club, Mu Alpha Theta, 9 years of orchestra (1st chair cello player for 6 of those), Multicultural club class rep

The schools I plan to apply to are the following:

(Reach)
Stanford
Columbia
Princeton
UC Berkeley
UCLA

(Match/Low reach)
USC
UMichigan
UC San Diego
UC Irvine
UC Santa Barbara

(Safety)
UC Santa Cruz

Are there any I need to possibly drop from my list? Am I aiming too high when it comes to matches?

Any feedback is appreciated!

It is good to have more safeties than one, because, just anecdotally from kids it happens to who post here, it is unsatisfying to only have one school to pick from if you get a tough year and don’t get in anywhere else…

USC and Michigan will be hard with just your stats. Get a higher ACT score and be involved in more ECs.

USC and UCLA/Berkeley are all pretty much on the same level, and your within their ranges —

pretty good list yo you’ll get into couple of those reaches bruh

Just some anecdotal evidence: My friend got into Princeton SCEA this year with a 31 ACT
and I had 2 friends get into MIT with 31s last year, another one with 30 got into Rice+Tufts

If they had come onto CC everyone would have been telling them they had 0 chance at these schools… lol I think you’re in a good position but it’s always nice to have a higher score

I’m guessing from your list that you are a CA resident? Two suggestions… 1) add UCR or Merced just as a backup plan, and b) you have time to do some test prep and try the ACT another time to see if you can bring it up a little higher. 31 is good but not amazing and if you are really interested in those reach schools it would help.

Unless UC Santa Cruz flat-out guarantees admission for students with your stats, and you know right now that you cn afford it, it may be pretty safe, but it isn’t a true safety. So if you aren’t happy with the CCCs that would be auto-admit for students from your neighborhood (assuming that you are a CA resident), then yes, you do need to dig a bit deeper and identify at least one affordable option that is an auto-admit.

UCSC should never be considered a safety. I agree with @happymomof1, include UCR or UCM or one of the competitive Cal states such as SDSU/SJSU/CSULB.

UCR has an admission guarantee for high stat students who sign up in June or July and then include it in the regular UC application.

Be sure to check costs using net price calculators.

At many UCs, selectivity can vary by major. USC also.

UMichigan will cost 55K, no financial aid.
Look into UVA as a possibility that might provide some financial aid, as well as Emory and Tulane (apply EA).
You need one more safety - include perhaps Cal Poly SLO?
Run the Net Price Calculators on each university and show the results to your parents.

Bump

Cal poly SLO is no safety. Many applicants rejected but were accepted at UC’s.

Unless you’re OK with going the CC route and trying for a UC as a safety, you should add some safeties. Unless you are URM, UCSB isn’t a safety for you and being shut out of all those schools may be fairly low probability but a definite possibility for you.

Add another UC or CSU as a safety to be “safe”. You have a lot of reaches/matches (BTW UMichigan isn’t a match for an OOS applicant) and even though your 31 is good, it’s not exactly great on the tiers that you’re striving for.

California’s public universities prohibit using race or ethnicity in admission, and so nobody should suggest that a URM will have an advantage. They do have a program for guaranteeing admission to students within the top 9% of a class, and will consider a student’s stats in relation to his classmates. This improves the odds for inner-city and rural students, who lack AP/IB courses for weighting their GPAs and who might not test as well. I think the OP’s chances of admission to UCSC are excellent, but agree that s/he should probably add UCR or some CSUs as true safeties.

I will probably add Cal Poly SLO as another safety. But I figure with my stats and being a URM, I will probably get into at least ONE of those schools, right?

URM doesn’t always mean much, keep that in mind.

It definitely plays a role in admissions though, especially with Ivy Leagues.

To the OP: Probably, so your odds of being shut out of all those schools may be pretty low. Still, it could happen (not the end of the world since CC-to-UC is a viable well-trodden path in CA).

URM only matters for private universities if you meet their criteria (many CC-ers overestimate the power of the URM hook, although it IS a hook).
URM status won’t matter for UCs though. Only socio-economic status and location (inner city, rural area) would matter.