<p>No. I'm saying that if the current endowment value (30% down) doesn't bounce back one red cent over the next three years, Swarthmore will spend at the top of its range (4.75%) indefinitely. That's $47.5 million per year in endowment spending, down about $6 million from this year's spending. </p>
<p>In other words, 3.7% of a the big endowment goes to 4.75% of the smaller endowment. The increase in percentage offsets a very large portion of the endowment decline. </p>
<p>The whole philosophy of the spending policy is to spend a "fixed" amount each year and not adjust the spending dollars with each market bobble. By doing that, the spending falls at the low end of the spending percentage during rising markets and at the high end of the spending percegtage during falling markets.</p>
<p>You can't separate it from a school's fiscal policy. If Swarthmore were already spending at a 6% rate during the boom years, they would not be able to increase the percentage to partially offset the market decline. The cuts in the operating budget would have to be more severe.</p>
<p>That's why is a folly to say that smalle endowment schools will be better off. Even in market where endowments have fallen 30%, a big endowment is still bigger than a small endowment. One of the things a big endowment lets you do is, over time, spend a lower percentage of the endowment each year on operating expenses. The benefits of that conservative fiscal policy don't really become apparent until pressure from a bust market is placed on higher education.</p>
<p>I've been talking about college balance sheets and operating budgets for years. I bet that, by the time all the program cuts are made three years from now, a lot more people will be paying attention to this stuff.</p>
<p>For example, I believe Wesleyan has announced an increase in enrollment of 120 new students phased in over the next four years. That's a real change in class sizes, dorm crowding, cafeteria lines, waiting for a counseling appointment, getting tutoring in calculus, and so on and so forth. I applaud Wesleyan for biting the bullet. But, we shouldn't kid ourselves that these cuts -- at all schools -- aren't going to be noticed. Some more than others.</p>