Transfer after first year with bad first semester gpa

I’m a freshman honors student at a pretty decent public liberal arts school, and i’m looking to transfer schools at the end of this year. My first semester gpa was a 2.8 (I was sick for a good portion as well), and i’m hoping to raise my gpa this second semester. I don’t know if my transfer school will be able to see my second semester grades initially, so how badly have I hurt my chances of acceptance?
My high school gpa was a 3.8 unweighted, 4.5 (i believe?) weighted, and an SAT of 1890.
I’m also not sure where I’d like to transfer, but most likely somewhere with a 50%-ish acceptance rate

It all depends on when the application deadline is. If it is after the end of your second semester then they will see them. You certainly have not done yourself any favors with the first semester GPA but whether or not you have hurt your chances significant amount it is not obvious. If you want to transfer, then you just have to try and hope that your High School stats are considered.