What is your in-state flagship? That is typically an admission safety for reasonably high-achieving kids (depending on the state, of course).
Some input based on my kids’ experience – we have visited a lot of midwest and east coast LACs as well as midwest flagships (and have a kid at UW).
UW: assuming you are out of state, an unweighted 3.75 in a rigorous curriculum should be an ultimate accept AS LONG as a student has a 30 and above ACT. UW postpones many students who will ultimately be accepted, so it is not a reliable “sure thing” acceptance early in the process. My own financial bias is that, even with UW’s tuition increasing over the next several years, it is still less expensive at $28-36k a year, than many schools of similar quality educationally. William & Mary and Michigan are a little cheaper than privates but not dramatically cheaper. That is a cost/benefit decision which is specific to each family.
The LACs: at Davidson, Kenyon, Oberlin, a 30-32 ACT with a 3.75 would be a competitive applicant a but no way to know which way that coin will land in the coin toss of LAC admissions. It could be a rejection as easily as it could be an acceptance, depending on the “soft” parts of an application, the essay, recs etc. LACs want students to show interest, and I believe Kenyon ranks Interest as “Very Important” factor in its admissions decisions. Google “common data set” and a college’s name to find a form where the schools list admissions numbers, stats, criteria, as well as a wealth of financial aid and merit aid info. Among those LACs you list, Denison is a solid match, with good chance of $10-15k merit money, but again a student would need to show interest, not just submit the Common App and figure they are in.
Notre Dame is stat driven, and would probably want to see a 34 or above for a 3.75 student. It is remarkably competitive admissions, we know, as our school sends 10 or more kids there a year. We hear kids in the 30-33 ACT range advised that they are not strong candidates for acceptance at ND – possibles, sure – but not solid. Crazy, I know.
I see some categories of types of schools here – the kind of main stream, sort of pre-professional schools, like ND, W&M, Davidson, Vandy, Tulane, Syracuse, as well as the slightly to very artsy schools, Kenyon and Oberlin, plus the flagships where any kind of kid can find their home. What is it about these different schools that you responded to? Oberlin seems like a real outlier on this list, a very distinct campus atmosphere which we have found kids either love or not at all. Have you visited Oberlin?
If you are comfortable with both big schools and small LACS, then consider seeding your list with representatives of each at the reach/match/safety level. Finding safeties for LACs is a challenge, and the admissions pool is so small, it is hard to predict, and a school still wants to see that interest. Possible LAC safeties, if you want to preserve that option, might include Kalamazoo, College of Wooster, Lawrence University, though a student would still need to “show the love.”
Finally, a cautionary note about finances – ask your parents to be more specific about finances – is it the case they will find a way to mortgage their future only if you get into a certain kind of school? Or is there $250,000 sitting in the bank ready to pay those bills? Is it important to “chase the merit money” and find schools where you will get significant merit money to close the gap between what schools think you can pay and what your parents say they can really afford? When schools talk about financial aid – it is their definition of what you can afford, not yours – which controls. For instance, schools tell us we can afford to write a $40-50,000 check every year but we know we cannot. As a result, we are looking at schools where our current high schooler would qualify for merit aid, to close the gap between what we know we can afford and what schools think we can afford. Ask your parents to run the Net Price Calculator at several types of schools on your list to see what you get. Out of state students at flagships, historically, get little financial assistance, so make sure you run their NPCs as well.
Good luck, sounds like you have been doing plenty of work on this already.