Definitely a fair point, GFG (your post 670). I hear you. OTOH, with regard to “realism,” there are, of course, two aspects to this. One is the realism (or lack thereof) of the college list itself. Not knowing particular anonymous S’s and D’s here, I would never make a judgment about such a list from a distance. Nevertheless, The List is an important factor, and more often than not (i.m.e. only) perceived or reported “great e.c.'s” which may indeed be great in themselves are not necessarily great to the college in question. (Again, everything is comparative, as opposed to absolute.) If any of us here were privy to knowledge about two particular student outcomes to the same school, with h.s. course lists and grades that were identical, as well as scores, as well as awards, as well as equally complimentary recs, and the only difference between the 2 applicants were the e.c.'s – type or level – the rejection of one of the two students would not be a judgment that his or her e.c.'s were subpar, worthless, inferior, whatever. It would be the result of bad luck that his or her chief competitor had a different e.c. or “more valued” --a highly subjective and often time-limited perception by particular people in a single admissions office. These are not objective judgments but assessments of institutional needs and wants at a particular moment in time. (Last year or next year that same student might have been admitted; none of us would know that.) We just cannot link a student’s “worth” in any meaningful way with a committee decision (a committee which often disagrees within itself).
The second aspect is realism with regard to outcomes, likelihoods, and The Great Unknown.
Any student or parent who prioritizes an abstract Dream over The List and/or The Unknown is asking for trouble in this often brutal business. (Not saying that Fall Girl did that!) Recently, I tried to discourage a student of mine from applying to Penn ED. I could not understand why she wanted to do that, even though this student is multi-talented and many Elite U’s/colleges would want her. The reason for my confusion is that she is not exceptional in both humanities and sciences, but lopsidedly so in literature and the arts. It means she made a great candidate for some fab LAC’s and some non-Ivies, but she was never Penn material, i.m.o. Apparently Penn thought so, too, because she was rejected, not deferred, Early. She had “A Dream.” But The Dream was not based on her profile and her special talents. She actually still has a prayer at one Ivy, but it wouldn’t have been Penn. Early on in the process I asked her why she chose Penn. She could not articulate an answer to my satisfaction – only something about having visited there, feeling at home there, and knowing someone (name-dropping) at some off-campus location associated with Penn. She was blindly driven by desire, and – as many students do, which is why I mostly despise the Early Round – went into a complete emotional meltdown for 2 full weeks after rejection, stalling and complicating her apps to other schools on her list. Her rejection by Penn was not an indictment of her as a person, a student, an artist. Her rejection was logical and predictable.
Final note, but it bears repeating because too many parents still do not understand this: College admissions is not a reward for hard work. It just isn’t. And a rejection is not a statement that the student didn’t work hard enough, OR that the college does not value hard work, sacrifice, etc. The latter is a point often missed.