Each UC works independently so there is no way to predict the outcomes for UCSB and UCB. Yes, there is always a chance and in the meantime opt into the waitlists for either or both schools.
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congratulations!!! Could you pl share her stats?
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Yes, we will opt in for the waitlist. Thank you.
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S22 Accepted / OOS
CS / Muir College
UW 4.0 / 6 APs in Junior year, 5 APs in Senior year/ Total 12+ APs + dual credits etc
Varsity Sport Captain
Solid leadership/ECs/Volunteering
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S22 admitted to Math + CS (2nd choice major), Revelle College (3rd choice). OOS (Int’l, IB). 1st choice was CS.
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Something isn’t adding up to me. Last year UCSD admitted over 40,000 freshman students. Using a generic and probably wrong yield of 30%, that would be a freshman class of 12,000 which sounds about right. In my son’s waitlist letter, it was stated that there were 6,600 spots. That means the freshman class is just over half of last years class.
Thoughts? What am I missing?
Accepted into alternate major (Data Science)
OOS
4.0 UW
Good ECs/volunteering/leadership/part time job
NMF
US Presidential Scholar candidate
IB Diploma program + 5 APs
Now have to learn about more about Data Science because everywhere else they were accepted for Engineering (undeclared, general, or MechE) which was the first choice major. Doesn’t seem like Data Science has much to do with engineering.
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6600 is the target enrolled Freshman class, They will accept 3-5X as many applicants based on historical yield. If it is around 33% yield, so at least 19,800. Also yield for CA admits is much higher than OOS/International so I would say that the # admitted would closer to 30,000 admits this year.
Seems odd that the freshman class appears so much smaller that years past. Covid clog?
If you look at the link posted, UCSD’s Freshman class #’s have ranged from 6707 2018, 6023 in 2019, 6499 in 2020 and a high probably due to covid of 7543 in 2021. 6600 seems like a normal target level based on the historical data.
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4.0 uw
4.5 w (max for her hs)
9 AP including 5 this year (exam scores so far 5,5,5,4,3)
varsity sports 9-12 and considered team leader
Accepted to UCSD, Davis, Santa Cruz, Cal Poly SLO, CPP. Waitlisted at UCLA. Rejected MIT, Johns Hopkins, Caltech
Waiting on others and she is so grateful for her options. 
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Daughter was accepted, but into 2nd choice Math and not 1st choice Bioengineering. 4.0/4.74, NMS finalist. UCI accepted her into Bioengineering and she got a Regents Scholarship as well. UCLA waitlisted. I’m pretty sure her heart had UCI first, and everything seems to be falling right into place for her.
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D22 waitlisted at UCSD. Applied for Cognitive Science. OOS 3.9 UW. Accepted at UCI and UCD, declined at UCLA.
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@Gregg_Cascarini - Your yield rate assumption is too high. Last year they yielded about 7500 kids on 40.5k admissions…only about 18%…and they significantly overshot what they seem to see as a target class size more like 6600. Sounds like they’re trying to get back to 6600 again, and, based on the qualitative WL info flowing in, they’re taking a pass on a LOT of high stat kids this year…probably not wanting to repeat the problem of last year. Their yield on their higher stat kids is significantly lower than for kids a little lower in their target zone (not shocking), and with all the hubub around UCB and much higher applications than last year, they’re seemingly taking a more conservative approach on high stat kids, just so they don’t get bitten in the rear again with an over-enrollment issue? Just my hypothesis, but a reasonably informed one, I think.
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What a crazy system. My daughter with similar stats (but no NMF possibility because her school did not offer the PSAT in 11th grade) got weight listed with math as her first choice. 
A post was merged into an existing topic: UCSD Class of 2026 Waitlist/Appeal Discussion
Requesting some feedback
Would it make sense to take lesser courses over Sophmore and Junior to keep cap weighted GPA higher ? Take 6 courses each year instead of 7
That is a lot of applications that he filed! Wow! At least he has some great choices. Congrats!
No since the UC’s consider all 3 UC GPA’s: Unweighted, Capped Weighted and Fully Weighted meaning your HS course rigor will be considered in your Fully weighted GPA.
Also check out the 13 areas of UC application review which includes: Number of and performance in UC-approved honors, Advanced Placement, International Baccalaureate Higher Level and transferable college courses.
You should take a rigorous HS schedule that you are able to handle and not game the system ie GPA.
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tbh, 6 courses is plenty by itself if they have the right rigor. But, I wouldn’t try to game things just to up your capped GPA. Each UC will look at every both capped and uncapped plus rigor.