For the theory to be right, the poll ranks should be in this order.
This is assuming # of Denials > # of Admits > # of Waitlists.
Right now, the poll is trending in that direction assuming all votes are in good faith.
Are there always more admits than waitlists?
I think so
Absolutely. Per CDS from last year, 16k admits and 6k WL.
Unauthorized 
gg
this doesn’t make sense tho. For Irvine people could access the admitted event but were waitlisted unless Berkeley is different
Predictions are going in full swing. I had been following this thread and couldn’t stop myself to press that withdraw button. I got option 2 (no longer interested to attend UCB), will update tomorrow based on decisions if the portal astrology worked out or not
people confused regular events with welcome receptions that time I think
i think as long as most people are in the no withdraw no welcome or yes withdraw yes welcome groups it makes sense. we already saw that most people couldn’t access welcome reception. i imagine theres a good bit of non response bias in the new poll. but then again its working out like u said it should already
My S22 was waitlisted at Irvine. You know what happens when I try to register him for an admit reception NOW? Unauthorized. Even though he was able to access it pre decision.
I think UCI didn’t load the admit list crosscheck at that time but UCB had done that too early and started this whole theory.
But hey this whole thing could be bogus but the disparate pieces of data actually line up in support.
no I saw people at my school who signed up for the actual admitted event for Irvine and get WL
We could not access the UCI welcome event and were also rejected. NP though because UCI was at the very bottom of our list - and still is!
I’ll update tmr when the decision is out. I could register for the welcome reception BEFORE it patched and also have access to the withdraw form.
So far I got into UCLA, UCSD, and UCI.
Couldn’t access welcome event but could withdraw. I suppose I got WL. 1550+, 10+ fives on AP exams, 3.95+, ECs are objectively great. Truth be told, if it is true, I’m surprised I got waitlisted. Maybe because I’m Asian LOL.
yes i hope people will update whether they got in and whether the results from the astrology line up
oos?
International without aid.
then obv its gonna be a crapshoot lol
u prolly checked the welcome event AFTER they patched it dw
When did u check?