UCF chances?

Hi,
I adore UCF. I am from Orlando and I would hate to leave. I recently applied to UCF and they have received my transcript and my test scores have been sent. Due to my love of UCF, I am very nervous about getting in.

ACT: 23 (retake in October)
GPA: 3.75 uw (what will UCF’s recalculation be?)
I think my test score is a little low, and my grades junior year were awful, due to the death of my father and various moves around the country and state. I wrote about that in my essay and I was told it was “brilliant.”

What are my chances?

Honors/AP/IB classes?

I have honors, no AP ( I go to a very small private school and most AP’s are just math and science which are not my strong suits) and IB is not offered at my school. In addition, I am a member of NHS and NSHSS.