UCF Supplemental Requirements

I’m tempted to classify UCF as a safety school, but I’ve heard it’s quite competitive for out-of-state students (like me). Stats:

~3.8 GPA, unweighted
1560 SAT
Extracurriculars largely themed around journalism/literary magazines/web design
Varsity x-country in 9th grade; varsity swim team in 11&12th grade
Prospective compsci major
High chance of advancing to National Merit Finalist (225 Selection Index)

I want to attend the honors college and am aiming for merit scholarships. Under those circumstances, what are my chances of admission. Should I write UCF’s “strongly recommended” supplemental?

And is the supplemental meant to be two separate essays responding to two of the four question options, or one composite essay that incorporates two of the four questions?

Just attended the tour today with my son. They highly recommend including the essay. My guess it is more of a tie breaker. You can answer one or two prompts. Up to you. You should sail in and if you are a NMF, I think they would offer a nearly full ride. More here: https://www.ucf.edu/admissions/undergraduate/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2018/08/1807ADM456-National-Merit-Scholar-Newsletter_LowRes.pdf