<p>At least not in the midwest or the northeast. In the midwest, the number of high school graduates has reached its peak and is now supposed to decline by over 11% by 2017, with almost all of this growth occurring in the white communities who are most likely to attend college.</p>
<p>Unless these universities rack up their out-of-state admissions and remove their in-state quotas, every single one of them is bound to become less selective.</p>
<p>Thousands of liberal arts schools will go broke, too.</p>
<p>This is all a good thing, of course. When Universities starting acting like private businesses competing with one another instead of serving the educational needs of their states, everything went wrong.</p>
<p>There are a lot of articles about it all over the internet.</p>
<p>I first heard about it in my college (Wisconsin)'s newspaper about a year 1/2 ago, but it is apparently getting more discussion now. Furthermore, my hometown newspaper in Minnesota wrote an article about it, except it was related to how the Twin Cities would struggle to keep afloat after the baby boomers retire (or, as we are seeing now, are laid off). </p>
<p>Furthermore, less and less college graduates every year are engineers, scientists, physicians, and so on, partly due to how becoming one is getting far less and less affordable, but mostly due to how we are all a victim of our own parent’s successes and saw little reason to strive for such lofty goals. Not to mention how our public education system is flawed and overly easy at almost every level. </p>
<p>This country has gotten itself into a recipe for disaster. But I suppose that is how things naturally unfold.</p>
<p>These gross generalizations are unhelpful and extremely misleading. The number of HS graduates is expected to decline steadily in some Midwest states, like Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and North Dakota. In others, like Indiana, it’s expected to grow steadily. In still others, like Minnesota and Nebraska, it’s expected to dip slightly over the next few years and then rebound sharply after 2016 or so.</p>
<p>It’s also worth noting that many Midwestern schools don’t have in-state quotas. Some, like the University of Michigan and the University of Wisconsin, are already about 1/3 OOS, and there are strong indications that applications from international students are rising rapidly at these schools. If that trend continues, it could be strong enough to more than offset a decline in the in-state applicant pool. </p>
<p>Overall, declines in the HS graduate pool are expected to be sharpest in the Northeast, not in the Midwest. I’d expect the biggest impact to fall on smaller private Northeastern LACs which have traditionally drawn the bulk of their student body from the Northeast region. Many of these schools are stepping up recruitment effects in growing regions of the country (generally the Southeast and Southwest) and internationally, but they’re starting from a disadvantage as they’re generally not as well known as the Ivies. They’ve got their work cut out for them.</p>
<p>I met a very nice recruiter from Colby College at the last Seattle college fair. He said exactly that. They are trying to expand their reach to major cities outside the northeast. He also said it was slow going as awareness of the school was low once you got west of Chicago and south of Washington, DC. But they see that as critical to their future.</p>
<p>Colby? I came to know about Colby when a former student threw a pie at Thomas Friedman. Then when I started college, I hear horror stories about legacy cases that didn’t have the stats for Amherst, having to go to Colby. Maybe one day my kids will end up there and I’ll set myself on fire.</p>
<p>I’m not exactly sure you are right, bClintock. Last I read, Minnesota’s high school graduates were supposed to dip at about the midwest average (a little over 11%) over the next ten or so years. This is technically an even higher percentage drop among the kids of “educated” people (or the middle class) offset by an increase in high school students of typically lower-performing families. Furthermore, if it does “rebound” in 2016, it is likely that this rebound will consist mostly of these typically lower-performing students. It’s not unique to the midwest or the northeast, though, and is actually an American (and even moreso European) phenomena. Birth rates are far below replacement level for those who have the means to send their children to college. </p>
<p>This is a huge problem for many reasons, actually, as if and when the educated baby boomers retire there will not be enough people to take their place.</p>
<p>The best thing our states can do is to improve graduation and performance among the lower-performing communities and, like you said, start pursuing out-of-state and international students much harder. The small privates are going to be the ones hurting the most, and I imagine many of them will even go bankrupt. </p>
<p>And BTW, Wisconsin does in fact have a cap. In any given year, 75% of the students admitted must be from “in state” (MN and WI). Out of state students just have higher return and graduation rates, I believe, driving their population up to about 30%.</p>
<p>Well, I’m looking at a chart based on census data and demographic projections that says the number of HS grads in Minnesota peaked at 65,229 in 2008. Already by 2009 that number will drop to 63,843 and continue declining at a fairly steady rate until 2014 when it bottoms out at 59,246. Then starts a fairly sharp upward trend that will bring the number back up to 64,597 by 2022—that is, virtually at the same level as the 2008 peak. Projections beyond 2022 are sketchier because they’ll be based on guesstimates as to the number of births, but I’ve seen charts showing a continued upward trend for Minnesota after that point.</p>
<p>You’re right that the number of “white non-Hispanic” HS grads drops more sharply than the overall population. That number peaked in 2003 in Minnesota at 52,363, and for 2008 stood at 50,161. For 2009 it’s projected to be a little over 48,000 and from there gradually drop to around 42,000 by 2014, where it remains on a plateau right through 2022. But that figure is partially offset by a growth in Asian HS grads, a group that according to some figures I’ve seen actually attend college at a higher rate than whites.
No question, though, that significant growth in projected in the state’s black and Hispanic HS grads, blacks from about 3,300 in 2008 to about 4,900 by 2022, and Hispanics from 3,500 in 2008 to 6,600 in 2022. Historically these groups have not attended college in as high percentages as non-Hispanic whites. But we’re still talking about racial and ethnic minorities making up a rather small fraction of the total pie in Minnesota. The demographic trends you’re talking about will be noticeable in Minnesota, to be sure, but hardly devastating. And in terms of maintaining selectivity at a place like the University of Minnesota, they’re easily offset by things like inducing more Minnesota residents to stay at home (thousands annually currently cross over to Wisconsin where they can attend public colleges and universities at in-state rates under the two states’ reciprocity agreement, in which Minnesota is currently a net exporter of college students); increasing OOS applications, which the University is already doing through an aggressive pricing policy that pegs OOS tuition at $4K/year above the in-state rate, making Minnesota an affordable option for many OOS students; and increasing international applications, which apparently are up substantially this year. </p>
<p>Bottom line, I’d expect the University of Minnesota to become substantially more selective in the coming years, not less selective as TheDesertFox suggests.</p>
<p>Losing over 10,000 white graduates in 8 years? Man… birth rates must have just really hit a wall and then plummeted. </p>
<p>Perhaps you are right, though. I don’t know exactly what to think, I was just saying what all these articles were. I was talking more about my own university (Wisconsin), and we are pretty similar universities when it comes to our target demographics.</p>
<p>I don’t think it’s as simple as “asians (4% of Minnesota) will make up the difference,” and it would be a shame if our proud state universities, paid for by our taxes, started trying to educate more and more internationals and OOS students just to maintain a “selective” status. If state universities maintain doing what they are supposed to do (educate their tax base) instead of becoming a base of educating people who 90+% of the time will take their education back home with them, then our universities will inevitably become less selective over the years.</p>
<p>We live in Florida and our teen daughter (sophomore) scored fairly well on her PSAT–a 189–and she is being bombarded by Liberal Arts Colleges literature, all Virginia and northwards, and Indiana, Mich and Ohio, westward. The funny thing is, when she took the PSAT she checked off that she was interested in Science/Marine Biology. She hasn’t recieved a single brochure from any college that has a Marine Bio program.</p>
<p>Not only that, she has received a few 'phone calls–daytime, when she is at school (go figure) for invites to two NE and one Midwest school. </p>
<p>So, maybe they are really looking for OOS students? Because I don’t see that 189 for a sophomore is that outrageously high that it would generate such interest, or maybe I am wrong…(that’s another post).</p>
<p>Are you referring to public schools or very small schools that have trouble admitting cross-admits?</p>
<p>Less students graduating high school doesn’t mean there won’t be enough top students to get into school that are selective (though they may receive less applicants what they require from applicants won’t be a lower standard), but it will mean there will be less top students flowing down the system to “third choice” type schools…</p>
<p>It’s not clear what universities we’re talking about in this thread.</p>
<p>I didn’t say “it’s as simple as Asians will make up the difference.” I did say the Asian-American population in Minnesota, especially in the Twin Cities, is growing rapidly, and many Asian-American groups have very high levels of college participation. So that’s one factor that will partially offset the decline in white middle-class and upper-income HS grads, historically the groups likeliest to attend college.</p>
<p>As for the idea that public universities are betraying state taxpayers by attracting OOS and international students: I think a lot of people in Minnesota, including key people in the legislature, take a very different view of this. Yes, they want Minnesota kids to have an opportunity to get a good education. But they also view the University of Minnesota in particular as a “talent magnet” that draws in smart, talented, ambitious people from the surrounding region (that’s why so many reciprocity agreements), the nation, and the world. Sure, some of them leave. But a very large number decide they like it here and stay, and especially when the Twin Cities economy is growing it sometimes has a voracious demand for bright, educated people. The kinds of businesses and industries we have here tend to be highly “knowledge-intensive” and employ lots of engineers, medical professionals, and others with specialized professional and technical skills. It’s much easier to recruit them if they’re already here, and the University brings them here. And frankly the University and the local labor pool are both stronger if they’re drawing from a national and international applicant pool. The best-qualified Minnesotans will still be admitted, and they’ll probably always make up a majority of the student body. But they’ll have to compete for those spots, they won’t be just handed to them. Anyway, if they can’t get into the University, they can get into some other public college or university in Minnesota—or in Wisconsin under our reciprocity agreement, and come back to the Twin Cities when they graduate. So your taxpayers are carrying part of the load for us.</p>
<p>I think that’s a big difference between the Twin Cities and Madison. This is changing a little now, but historically Madison basically has just had the University and state government. It’s just not a big enough job market to absorb all the University of Wisconsin graduates, so most will go elsewhere. I don’t have the numbers to prove it, but my guess is the University of Wisconsin is probably a net exporter of talent; the OOS and international students who come there by and large leave, the Minnesota reciprocity students mostly return to the Twin Cities, and a lot of Wisconsin kids use the
University as a ticket out on their way to Chicago, the Twin Cities, or farther afield. Of course, there’s always Milwaukee but its economy isn’t as dynamic as the Twin Cities, and it’s a lot more blue collar oriented so there are fewer opportunities for college grads. </p>
<p>There’s surely a lot of movement out of Minnesota by University of Minnesota grads, too, both OOS/internationals as well as Minnesotans. But I suspect the University of Minnesota is a net importer of talent because the larger and more dynamic Twin Cities job market can absorb a higher percentage of University graduates, and this metropolitan area is widely perceived as a highly desirable place to live, especially by those who’ve had the chance to spend some time here. (Of course, our local economy is suffering now, too, but i’m talking here about larger decades-long trends). That’s how the university sees itself, and that’s how it’s seen by people in state government. We like OOS and international students. Please come join us!</p>
<p>Things are changing here, albeit slowly, though. Sadly, almost all of Wisconin’s high tech economic growth is taking place in or around Madison. Madison, I really think, has a good chance of departing some from its “college town” status over the next decade or so and becoming a much more important city in the Midwest. </p>
<p>We have companies like Epic Systems which, as of right now, employs 3,300 people, almost all of which are college educated and very qualified. In fact, Epic’s website basically tells you outright that if you didn’t graduate from a major university or have an exceptional GPA, they aren’t interested. I’ve heard of many Ivy Leaguers who have moved here from the coasts for positions there. They are spending money like its going out of style and are one of the fastest growing companies in America. Google and Microsoft have both set up offices in downtown Madison, too, and much of the westside is home to a lot of different biotech companies. </p>
<p>But obviously Wisconsin doesn’t have anything like The Twin Cities, which is why so many people move there after college here. I wouldn’t count on people from the coasts (or especially internationally) sticking around the Twin Cities, though, since almost every state in the midwest is showing gigantic inter-state population losses. And UW must be a net exporter at this point, although like you said, it is changing (slightly). Hopefully that will change even more over the next decade or two. Maybe I’ll try to move back when and if it does.</p>
<p>Where do all those Michigan grads go, though?</p>
<p>And although I let my biases seep in a bit, this isn’t a Minnesota or a Wisconsin issue. Is is an issue our entire country needs to address. Not only are our “qualified” high school graduates dropping, but our education system is actually a joke, especially in public high schools. America is a victim of its own success and now we are going to pay for it.</p>
<p>I wouldn’t be surprised if schools like UMN or UW were 20-30% Chinese in 20 years.</p>
<p>My prediction – yes more asians, more intl students. So what? My Ds high school has shifted over the years to more and more children of asian descent. So what? Other than now we celebrate more holidays than most people can think of? </p>
<p>Yes, I agree many 3rd tier schools will have it tough. The ones that have religous affiliation and state support will do OK. The rest will have to decide if they downsize, take on more adult students or what. </p>
<p>This country has shown it can survive change. So will colleges.</p>