Urgent, ED2 vs RD for unique circumstances

I’m presented with 2 situations:
I have a low GPA, financial/medical circumstances, and incredibly good essays (albeit subject) in either case.
If I apply ED2, I’ll have a 1470 SAT (780M, 690W+CR) and 32 ACT (32 in each section, was sick).
If I apply RD, I’ll have a ~1530 SAT or perhaps a bit higher. This is because I’ve studied for the SAT and am taking it in January. I’ve scored 1530-1550 on the practice tests. The 1470 test was in April of last year. I can also take the February ACT for a 33 or 34.
UChicago is by far my top choice and I show this in my why UChicago essay.
Would it be more advantageous for me to apply RD or ED2? Why?
Essentially, is the difference between applying ED2 and RD bigger than the difference between a 1470 and a 1530?

Never make strategic decisions based on predicted scores. It’s more likely than you think that your score won’t go up when you retake, and it might even go down. Do you really want to gamble on being stuck applying to the extremely competitive RD round with your current scores?

Besides, scores have less of an effect than people think, MIT admissions wrote a [good blog post](What’s the big deal about 40^2? | MIT Admissions) about how people always overestimate how much they care about it.

I guess you’re right but I honestly think that my scores can improve based on practice tests alone. I didn’t study whatsoever (public school, poor, etc.) and got a 1470. The first practice test I took was a 1490, second after studying was a 1540. Third was a 1550. I’ve grown a lot since April when I took my 1470 which is why I think it’s realistic. I want to apply ED2 badly but I want my chances to be as great as possible.

I’d apply ED2. If a relatively minor change in scores could make all the difference, they have the option of deferring your ED2 application and waiting until RD to see the new scores. Meanwhile, you’ll have indicated your strong interest/willingness to commit. Isn’t there a place on the application where you can indicate that you have taken or will take tests whose results will be sent to the school as soon as they are available?

What is low GPA mean?

@exacademic Are you absolutely sure about this? I’m definitely willing to apply ED2 if that’s the case.

There is no guarantee for the advise on CC, you have to take it as you see fit.

My vote would for ED2 as well, as it indicate your strong interest. If you are not selected, they can reconsider you in RD, deferred or wait list. If you apply only in RD, you have no way being deferred or reconsidered. Wait list basically is a rejection.

Regarding your scores, you could update your scores as they comes, if that make any difference. I don’t think it make a difference in 100 point SAT score or make it a 33 or 34 in ACT.

My opinion is ED2 as well. The bump from your agreement to attend is more important than the extra SAT points (if you know you really want to go). If you get outright rejected, know you likely would have been with the higher SAT also. If you are deferred, you get another shot and can send any new scores.

I believe you. I agree that you have every reason to think that your score will probably go up…but there’s still a non-insignificant chance your score will go down. I can’t find the data right now because the College Board restructured the site, but on the whole, scores are just as likely to go down as it is to go up if you retake it. Big jumps (>50 points or so) are much rarer than you’d think looking at this site.

I know way too many people from my hs who assumed their score would go up significantly from studying, gambled on that, and lost. Sure, 4 out of 5 of them did see their scores go up, but the 1 person who didn’t felt awful.

To more directly answer your question though, I will also say that I agree with the posters above who think that your boosted score + RD has a worse chance than your current score + ED2.

@exacademic Unfortunately this isn’t true. Choices for ED2 are accept/deny/waitlist, like RD. You won’t be pushed to the RD round.

Ahh, sorry for the error and thanks for the correction.

Hmm… Regardless, I think the chances of a deny are lower than the chances of a waitlist so I’m going to apply ED2. If I am waitlisted then I believe the possible improvement in my test scores will distinguish me from other waitlisted candidates. Thank you so much, everyone!