I can see Full Approval for adults in late fall, but not so sure that Full Approval will come that quick for <18.
Yes, and the vaccine has really helped turn that around! The decline has been remarkable and the remaining hospitalized and dying are overwhelmingly unvaccinated (see below). My question pertains to the here-on-out; whether there is data to suggest another looming public health crisis (schools shutting down, lives disrupted etc) or just concerns based on what has happened over the past year. Obviously we are still in a pandemic. The question is what it will look like here going forward. I suspect that the Delta variant wonât be the last âworst-ever variant of concern.â
ETA: Mfwan has answered this - yes in some countries they are going back to lockdowns and masks. A good reason to step up the pace of vaccination, assuming our vax rates are similar or lower.
Clearly, vaccines will help with the Delta variant. But this warning was within the context of the vaccine harming the most vulnerable who arenât vaccinated. There is no mention of a continued looming health crisis the likes of what we saw last year and which disrupted major portions of everyoneâs life. We do have to be careful to clarify the context of this or that warning. You didnât specify the context - my concern - and probably others as well - would be whether the vaccinated have to worry much. Health experts are urgently encouraging vaccination because they donât want to see anyone harmed from what has mostly been - and is now overwhelmingly - a preventable disease.
Our state is fully opened but fatality rates for the infected have increased even w/o the Delta variant being a major threat here at this time. The data are clear: it is the unvaccinated who are experiencing hospitalization and death. To me, thatâs pretty convincing evidence that the vaccine is very effective (if it were just the natural course of the virus burning out, as some might believe, youâd see higher proportions of vaccinated in that mix of hospitalizations and deaths). This trend in our state is replicated across the country. But even this convincing evidence wonât necessarily change someoneâs mind. What Iâve noticed over time is that the few I know who are outright vaccine-resistant are even less willing to discuss the matter than before. They just want to make their decision and not be grilled on it; they are tired of the ongoing debate. So I donât try to persuade or shun; I just share the facts as they develop - both the benefits and the risks. The people I know are perfectly capable of making up their own minds and thereâs no rule that says they have to agree with me, or I with them.
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Israel has vaccinated about 80% of its adult pop, but has not yet approved a vax for children.
Per a Hopkins doc who is interviewed frequently on TV, fully vaccinated do extremely well fighting off the Delta variant, and where it is being transmitted in the US is those non-vaccinated, particularly kids. And most kids fight it off easily, i.e., severe infections are rare in this age group.
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Pfizerâs BLA submission includes ages 16+ which is consistent with their initial EUA approval. As such, itâs likely that is the data set the FDA will act on.
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All consistent with my post.
Just take a look at what happened in India in the Spring with no vaccines, no masking, and no social distancing. There are MANY parts of the US that fit those criteria. It was horrific in India.
But the point is unvaccinated do not do well.
This strain is more contagious and more deadly. I am not worried about myself or my immediate family. We are all vaxxed, live on an island approaching 80% vaxxed and everyone is adept at maintaining distance is sketchy situations. My life has been 100% back to normal for weeks.
I am concerned about my unvaxxed friends and family in a state where 70% not fully unvaxxed. There are 19 states with at least 40% of the population yet to receive a single dose of vaccine. I am concerned about my unvaxxed relatives in those states.
Moreover, I think states with a high population of unvaxxed residents are at extreme risk for having, at the very least, their schools shut down again in the fall.
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Report from the west:
We have vaccines and the public health department is begging our rural county to get vaccinated. We are at 40% fully vaccinated. We have the Delta variant. We had a teen die. Our hospitals are at capacity with covid cases which are 99.9% (public health words) unvaccinated people.
I went to a gas station on I-70 here yesterday and needed to go in to pay. NO ONE WAS WEARING A MASK BUT ME.
I really am surprised at the low % vaccinated.
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yes, I understand your point, but I just disagree with it. Personally am not concerned about those that make a conscious choice not to get vaccinated; they are welcome to play the covid roulette. (The state/local public health departments need to continue strong outreach efforts to covert those noâs to yesâs.) OTOH, I only feel for those 10% that for medical reasons cannot get vaccinated.
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Some parts of the west have low vax numbers due to the large numbers of young people; children who are too young to vaccinate and young teens who are not vaccinating. For instance, the state of Utah (along the I-70 corridor) was only at 39% vax in early June; but the adult population vaxed exceeded the national average for those age groups.
Utah skews young; the average age is only 31!
Anything is possible, but my crystal ball predicts that FDA tells Pfizer âthat the under 18 will require further study, but we could recommend Full Authorization for adultsâŠcare to revise your Request for adults now?â
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I will admit I have moments where I am at that point myself. Those are mixed in with moments of panic about the risk my 85 year old aunt or my recently-done-with-chemo BIL are putting themselves in. I hate that susceptibility to medical information from youtube could potentially be a death sentence for them.
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I havenât found a county with 0% vaccinated; however, the NYT tracker I use is missing data for a couple of states and a few more localities. Maybe I just visit different parts of the country but Iâve tended to notice that those who wish to wear masks do just that. Of course, if people are ignoring sensible protocols and refusing to vaccinate (even though eligible with easy access) thatâs another matter - but itâs also distinct from Indiaâs situation. Here, most of us can choose to disassociate or act differently and we have a good number of the country who chose to be vaccinated and protected from the Delta variant. That doesnât mean there wonât be local responses to local outbreaks but itâll be a local - if harsh - lesson learned.
Sorry - donât recall: are/were they able to get vaccinated? Are you worried about breakthrough Covid or are they the ones watching Youtube?
What is that statement based on? I donât think âcrystal ballsâ are appropriate in this situation.
The Pfizer Phase 3 trial always included age 16+, which was reflected in the EUA. Thatâs different than the 12-15 year old trials, which were separate and later, necessitating a separate review and EUA.
I think weâre saying the same things. But the point is that there are large numbers of folks who (a) arenât masked, (b) donât socially distance, and (c) do not get vaccinated (for whatever reason). Given how infectious the Delta variant is, thatâs going to be a huge issue.
I hope to the high heavens it doesnât become another wave, but I donât think weâre out of the woods by a long shot.
Your point about India vs. the US is a good one: there, they didnât have the vaccine widely available in Spring (but they do now), whereas we have had access for several months now. However, that conscious choice in the US not to vaccinate and also not to mask/socially distance will lead to the same result as in India. And yes, we are much further along on vaccination than India was, but we have large pockets that are extremely vulnerable. Perhaps that will help slow it down.
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That seems unlikely â places with low vaccination rates are mostly the same places where people are hostile to masks, social distancing, shutdowns, and other measures to reduce virus spread. The main mitigating factor that they may have is that more of their residents may have some immunity from previous natural infection, although that may still not be enough (combined with the relatively few there who do get vaccinated) to get close to herd immunity.
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I think that is exactly what folks in India thought until March. India got by 2020 and the first few months of 2021 relatively unscathed. And then absolute catastrophe BECAUSE it was the Delta variant. And thatâs the same variant thatâs here now.
I know we all hope that this doesnât become a disaster in the US. And maybe because we have far more vaccinated people than India had in Spring 2021 that it might not spread so dramatically.
If B.1.617.2 / Delta is as contagious as it is reported to be (i.e. more than B.1.1.7 / Alpha which was more contagious than the âclassicâ virus), then there may be regional disasters. Places that have a high immunity rate* may have herd immunity or close it and therefore have few cases. But places with low vaccination rates that were not previously hit hard (i.e. not enough previous natural infections) could see regional disasters.
Of course, for many people, any such disaster would be self-inflicted (due to taking the voluntary risk of not getting vaccinated now that vaccines are easily available). However, those who medically cannot get vaccinated, or who get weak or no immunity from vaccination, are more in involuntary danger if there is lack of herd immunity. In addition, if a COVID-19 disaster hits an area and fills up the hospitals, it may not be good for those who need to go to the hospital for some other reason if the hospital is full due to COVID-19.
*Vaccinated plus immunity from previous natural infection.
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Totally agreed. Perhaps I am too pessimistic. Time will tell.
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