I am pessimistic too.
I also think there will be new, and very likely worse, variants in our future.
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Indeed.
But Iâm done trying to convince them.
With respect to variants, a variant is only likely to replace B.1.617.2 / Delta if it does at least one of the following without getting too much worse at the other:
- Being more effective at infecting.
- Evading prior immunity from vaccination or natural infection.
For B.1.1.7 / Alpha to replace âclassicâ and other variants, it got better at 1 above. For B.1.617.2 / Delta to replace B.1.1.7 / Alpha, it appears to have gotten better at both, although vaccines are still mostly effective against it.
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Yes.
Correct, and I think this bears repeating. In a study by Public Health England, the Pfizer vax was shown to be 88% effective against Delta. Dr. Fauci has publicly stated taht he expects the Moderna vax to be similarly effective. (altho no data out on it yet).
Note, when referencing Indiaâs experience, that they so far are using two âhome grownâ vaccines and one from Russia, the former two appear to have lower efficacy that Moderna or Pfizer. And the latter, Russia claims their Sputnik has 91% effectiveness against original covid â not Delta V, specifically, but many scientists are questioning their results (based on extremely small sample).
Although these two are manufactured in India, one is under licence from AstraZeneca.
âThe Serum Institute of India (SII) makes Covishield (under licence from AstraZeneca), whilst the second largest producer, Bharat Biotech, makes the locally-developed Covaxin.â
Thank you for clarifying, but my point still stands. Per Indiaâs own experts, Covisheild appears less effective against Delta than Pfizer or Moderna.
âCovishield reduces slightly with Alpha, by 2.5 times. For the Delta variant, Covaxin is effective but antibody response is slightly reduced to three-fold reduction, and for Covishield, it is two-fold reduction, while in Pfizer and Moderna it is seven-fold reduction,â he said."
Sure, but the key point is the title of this OP: vaccine reluctance. Unfortunately, we have many, many areas in the US where a large number of folks are unvaccinated, donât mask, and donât distance. Thatâs effectively what happened to India.
The potential saving grace that we have here is that we do have a large number of folks here that are vaccinated, which is very different in India. Iâm hoping that this slows things down here, particularly if the vaccines can thwart the Delta and other variants (I believe there is now Delta + ).
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I am not worried about breakthrough infections. These two relatives are both voluntarily unvaxxed and both are FULL of âfactsâ they gleaned from watching youtube âexpertsâ.
Generally, that is true, but most of those places still had some degree of shutdown/hybrid in schools. They also made the decision to avoid those measures when covid was less contagious and when symptoms were mostly confined to older folks.
AND our vaccination effectiveness is much higher than India.
So to me, the âscienceâ says yes, this will âslow things downâ, at least as compared to India.
(I like to think Iâm a glass-is-half full typeâŠ)
We listened to a podcast today sponsored by my husbandâs Harvard class. They had five health professionals including one working in England. They are very concerned about what they see in England. Their vaccination rate is about the same as ours and new cases are skyrocketing. They all expect a new surge in this country by the fall. My husbandâs reaction was heâs going back to wearing his mask at least indoors. (Heâs pretty used to mask wearing anyway as heâs always had to wear one when he was working with mice - he does cancer research.)
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Actually, that quote is claiming the following antibody response against the Delta variant versus presumably âclassicâ variants:
| Vaccine | Type | Antibody response against Delta variant |
|---|---|---|
| Covaxin | Inactivated SARS-CoV-2 virus with adjuvant | 1/3 |
| Covishield (= AstraZeneca ) | Adenovirus (ChAdOx1) vector | 1/2 |
| Pfizer | mRNA | 1/7 |
| Moderna | mRNA | 1/7 |
I.e. claiming that the mRNA vaccinesâ effectiveness (at least in antibody response) is reduced the most.
This was an interesting âTeens vs Parentsâ article in the NYT:
Based on what we see here and in Israel, the difference in protections is 95% for the Alpha and 88% for the Delta, after two shots. So Iâm skeptical about that seven-fold reduction.
In Israel, about 83% of all adults are vaccinated, and about half of the new cases are vaccinated adults. Among the people who were exposed to the virus the percentage is closer to 90%, since the people who introduced it were not Arab Israelis or Haredim, and vaccination rates for non-Haredi Israeli Jews was 87% in April, so it likely has reached at least 89% now.
That means that the chance the a vaccinated person would be exposed was eight or nine times as high as an unvaccinated person, yet the same number were infected. This means that infection rates among the vaccinated were only around 10% or so of the infection rate of the unvaccinated. That means that Pfizer effectiveness against the Delta variant is around 90%.
Since the effectiveness of the Pfizer vaccine is 95% against the Alpha variant, its effectiveness against the Delta variant NOT reduced sevenfold as this article claims/implies. Other studies, not conducted by producers of their own vaccine, have reported that Pfizer and AstroZenaca offer similar levels of protection against the Delta
I would also like to point out that the ICMR, which is, essentially, touting the higher effectiveness of the vaccine that they are heavily involved in developing.
BTW, the phase III trials for Covaxin say that it has a 77.8% efficacy rate, which is far lower than that of Pfizer, AstraZeneca, or Moderna for the Delta Variant. They should continue vaccinating people with the AstraZeneca.
Anyway:
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I would hope a post like this, written by a pediatrician, would help reluctant people, but Iâm probably over optimistic.
<<< LONG POST ALERT----I am tired, mentally this pandemic is exhausting. It is harder and harder to watch this happen AGAIN, when we as a society have the capability to keep it from happening like before. I am seeing more COVID than I ever did before and now it is in our young kids, our babies. This variant is not good, it is not to be messed with.
I am pleading with anyone that isnât vaccinated or is hesitant to vaccinate their kids that are eligible to do so NOW.
This variant can make them very sick, this variant can hurt their heart, this variant can affect their lungs, and it can ruin their future in sports. If that were to happen and you knew you could prevent it can you live with that?
My question to you is do you trust the science that has given us antibiotics to treat infections when you or your child is sick? Do you trust the science that helped us develop a vaccine that eradicated polio? Do you trust the science and accept the risk of Xrays, MRIâs or CT scans when you need to know what is wrong? Do you trust my guidance as a pediatrician and the science I learned to do my job? Why is one science more trusted than another, that is what is so perplexing to me?
If you get COVID or your child are you going to accept the treatments that science developed and were developed in the same time if not a shorter time than the vaccine?
If you answered yes to those questions then you should trust the science that I believe will protect our society, our kids and our economy.
I am trying not to lose my patience and my empathy for those suffering or losing their loved ones but when we arenât getting vaccinated, we arenât masking per the CDC guidelines because we donât have a masking ordinance and we are going out and about when we are sick we are literally digging our own graves.
Not only are you hurting yourself or your family, your decision is affecting others. With all the increased COVID illness filling our hospitals the people that have regular emergencies like heart attacks, cancer or respiratory distress now donât have a bed in the ER. People decompensating in the waiting room because the ERâs waiting times are greater than 10 hours and people are so sick. The ERâs are so full they are boarding patients without beds, or even more common people leave without being seen when they truly needed to be seen and then die at home. Without critical care beds or any beds a treatable emergency becomes an unnecessary death. I am not ok with that.
It has laid heavy on my heart, no amount of prayers can make it go away, the trauma of it all is soul crushing. The lack of care is like a slap in the face to those working in healthcare. It will only go from BAD to WORSE. Ask me anything, ask any doctor, or public health workerâCox and Mercy providers are over 90% vaccinated, JVC all employees almost 70%.
Just donât ignore what is happening and act like it isnât. It will affect you at some point and time. It is inevitable unless we do all the thingsâSo look up vaccine clinics and get your family protected as it is the most powerful tool we have!!>>>
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Boom.
When and where was that post written? Iâm not challenging you, just curious where in the US is that bad right now. I havenât seen any recent news stories about people going home without being seen because waits are too long and then dying at home.
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Recent or not, it doesnât matter. We know this has happened, no reason why it wonât happen again.
Here is what is happening/will happen. In areas with low vaccine rates, people will get covid and spread it to others. People will continue to die, get very sick, suffer long covid, or have no side effects at all.
Who knows if a new and more deadly variant will emerge here in the US in areas with low vaccination rates?
It was written three days ago by a pediatrician in Missouri.
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