But of that potential 1-2%, how many will get seriously ill? Yes, Delta spreads more rapidly than the original, and yes, it appears to make the unvaccinated sicker; data is still out on death rate. But what about the vaccinated? If many are asymptomatic carriers, or just a get minor symptoms, perhaps 1-2% ain’t so bad (for the vaccinated)? OTOH, if many vaccinated become long-haulers, then 1-2% ain’t so good…
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I suppose it depends on what you believe your outcome will be. If I had family members who had severe outcomes from infection, then 1-2% might be too high for my taste (even understanding that vaccination is supposed to help protect against that) and I’d prefer seeing others around me wearing a mask, even if they are all vaccinated - and especially if we are back to “normal” crowds at the super market, church, school, etc. In any case, I’m making more sense out of CDC’s indoor masking recommendation. Too bad they are making me figure this out on my own rather than just publish their data. I mean 1) I might be way off-base and/or 2) not everyone can spend their time crunching numbers; most reasonably expect the CDC to be doing that.
Can you provide a citation where the CDC indicated that the vaccines were “nearly 100% effective?” I may be mistaken, but I don’t recall that. Also, isn’t it a bit contradictory to criticize the CDC for modifying their messaging as they learn more, while also criticizing them for not providing you with all their preliminary data soon enough?
Fauci I believe is well intentioned but he has contributed to the problem…
“When polls said only about half of all Americans would take a vaccine, I was saying herd immunity would take 70 to 75 percent … Then, when newer surveys said 60 percent or more would take it, I thought, “I can nudge this up a bit,” so I went to 80, 85. We need to have some humility here … We really don’t know what the real number is. I think the real range is somewhere between 70 to 90 percent. But, I’m not going to say 90 percent.”
This sort of “spinning” under the guise of following science is a the crux of people’s skepticism. As an authority he and the CDC should not just be deliberate in what they know but equally honest and forthright about what they don’t know.
I suspect the vast majority of Americans would be inclined to get the vax if they were communicated to rather then being vilified for questioning and viewing health decisions as private and personal.
FYI I (and my family) got the vaccine as early as possible so this is not a political or personal standpoint. It is more a function of trying to be empathetic for people who don’t share my view at a time that is confusing for everyone.
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The CDC may be good at science but they are mediocre at best at messaging, but that’s really not their fault. We don’t have messaging failure; we have a leadership failure across the board starting with our government. The writer of a recent Washington Post article captured it well:
“Biden came into office pledging a “full-scale wartime effort” to beat back the coronavirus. He frequently compares the number of Americans who have died during the pandemic to the country’s war dead, contrasting the more than 615,000 covid deaths over the past 18 months to the number of U.S. soldiers who died in foreign wars over the past century.”
I don’t think that anyone currently thinks we are treating this like a country waging a war that has already claimed over 600,000 lives, wreaked havoc with the education of our children, and further divided an already fractured nation. What we need is leadership that assumes responsibility for policy and the messaging narrative. As of yet we do not have that.
From where are now, this pandemic will not be won by further tweaking of messaging that is already too complex. Instead, we need employers (federal, state, local, business) to adopt vaccination plans that will result in increased vaccination rates because, guess what, masks are not solving this pandemic. We need the FDA to give final approval to our best weapons against covid - mRNA vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna. We need unions to stop hemming and hawing over vaccine requirements for their members. We need our influences to not to speak in generalities but to be firm in support of vaccinations (looking at you Lebron James). Joseph G. Allen captures this and more in his opinion article in the Washington Post:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/02/vaccine-mandates-path-forward-joe-allen/
Or, I guess we can just continue to debate the stats de jour………
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How are the Americans that didn’t get the vaccine not communicated to? What should have Fauci and CDC have done differently that would have increased the number of vaccinated. Concrete points, please, not vague platitudes.
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Please read the quote in my post as a good example.
Calling them Neanderthals would be the other side of the coin.
Usually not a good idea to admit “spitballing it” on one side and then insulting the intelligence of those you are trying to persuade who don’t find your spitballing credible.
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I also got the vaccine…but I always said Fauci is the wrong person to deliver the message. Too many flip-flops and too many questions now with gain of function.(an what he knew and when) I think he is looked at like a political figure now and it he is not the person to sway the unvaccinated.
I always thought…politics aside…put the doctors out in front of the messaging. who wants medical advice from politicians…you wouldn’t go to them for cancer or diabetes, heart advice.
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I disagree. There will always be people who are anti-science and irrational and contrarian and, unfortunately, they are not a small minority.
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In case you weren’t aware of the well-publicized VE information in May - the information that led to the CDC dropping the masking recommendation for the vaccinated at the time - here is one example:
CDC should modify their message in light of new data - but they need to explain why in a clear manner so that the research community and American public aren’t left scratching their heads. They were heavily criticized for reversing their masking recommendation without providing backup. See here, for instance:
““If we’re seeing more breakthroughs, is it just because the virus is better and the vaccines don’t hold up quite as well, or is the efficacy of the vaccines beginning to wane, independent of the delta?” asked Robert Wachter, chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California at San Francisco. “This is three-dimensional chess, there’s a hundred things going on at the same time.””
We still don’t really know the answer to this question.
spot on! calling half the country neanderthals and stupid…not going to work. And they think they are insulting conservatives when in fact most of the unvaccinated are POC…in NY 70% of POC are unvaccinated. So what happens with the vaccine passport for restaurants?? you are telling 70% of POC they can’t go out to dinner or a show. Is that Jim Crow??
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Fauci is one of the leading expert doctors in the field. He was politicized by certain factions who then said he was too political. Like any good doctor or scientist, he knows nothing is absolute and he changed opinions and advice as knowledge of the virus, vaccine, and public behavior changed.
I agree that politicians should not be the main messengers but unfortunately in some notable cases they are who people listen to.
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I agree with your disagreement. Yes there will always be people that believe we didn’t really land on the moon and Bigfoot lives.
As of today we hit 50% vaxed. Define half of your fellow countrymen cooks and loons at your own peril.
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Among adults aged 65–74 years, effectiveness of full vaccination for preventing hospitalization was 96% for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% for Moderna, and 84% for Janssen COVID-19 vaccines; among adults aged ≥75 years, effectiveness of full vaccination for preventing hospitalization was 91% for Pfizer-BioNTech, 96% for Moderna, and 85% for Janssen COVID-19 vaccines.
96% for Pfizer and moderna are pretty darn close to 100%. Add to that the message that breakthroughs would be rare and that vaccines are the way out of the pandemic.
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Neither the CDC nor that article indicate that the vaccines are “nearly 100% effective.” Please quit using misinformation to try to make your point.
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Bingo. Fauci lost credibility with a lot of people I know who interpreted this comment as a deliberate attempt to manipulate the American people. He’s a medical scientist, not our kids’ soccer coach. The incentive to lie when you know something is “good” for someone else might be strong but when communicating to other adults honesty is always best. Perhaps many medical professionals are used to fudging a bit in clinic just to goad their patients along - but that wasn’t Fauci’s role here. IMO, he blew it - but at least he was fessed up.
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Again, what should Fauci and CDC do? So far I see you saying what they SHOULDN’T do.
The way that I see it, the antivaxers looks for excuses to do what they always wanted to do. No matter what Fauci and CDC do, it will be “no, that’s not it…”.
And that’s what’s wrong with the US… 
People trust their kids’ soccer coaches more than the scientists. It’s really sad.
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“Neither the CDC nor that article indicate that the vaccines are “nearly 100% effective.” Please quit using misinformation to try to make your point.”
They also didn’t say the vaccine would only be 39% effective against the variant that ultimately would constitute 90% of all new cases.
This wasn’t deliberate in my opinion but we can’t try and talk in absolutes as if those who are waiting are idiots. In hindsight I took a vaccine that is far less effective then I was led to believe. That said it does provide me with a measure of protection against severe illness and moves us towards controlling this as a society.
Those are the facts and that should be the message.
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When even Fauci knows that many people won’t get the vaccine because of him…he should also know to let someone else give the message. …he admits this all the time. It’s not doing any good at this point.
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