Vaccine reluctance & General COVID Discussion

Not sure how a mandatory FDA-approved (ie effective) vaccine is going to keep variants from outside the US from entering. Only restricting movement at our national borders can do so. Also, the vaccinated can and do spread Delta. Vaccination, of course, protects the vaccinated from severe illness. Currently that is one of the most notable benefits to vaccination.

If your goal truly is to keep the unvaxed from spreading the virus all over the place, you will need to do more than simply shut it down at the airlines. As you have pointed out, once an unvaxed gets out into another locale, they can spread it there. Driving next door rather than flying across a few states will still spread the virus. Your plan might require more cooperation from the states (checking vax cards at the borders) and cities (Travel Order such as Chicago and NYC had, enforced by directing hoteliers vendors etc. to require proof of vaccination from out-of-town visitors or business associates). No legal expert, but Iā€™m guessing some of this might start to interfere with some constitutional provisions, but someone more knowledgable can correct me there.

Once an infectious virus enters the community, it will get to other communities short of a lockdown on those who can spread it. For the most part, there is little that can be done to keep it from spreading ā€œfar and wideā€ if drastic measures to restrict mobility arenā€™t undertaken. That includes a much more exhaustive and restrictive approach than merely requiring vaccination on this or that mode of transit. We know from close study of prior super-spreader cases that all it takes is one person traveling to another community; if that person is a super-spreader he/she will spread it around. It doesnā€™t matter how they got there in the first place.

Airlines, trains, etc. should work from the available evidence to ensure that they conduct their business - getting people from Point A to Point B - safely. They are not in the business of corralling the unvaccinated.

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We have a significant shortage of school bus drivers in our local districts due to worries about infection. And several CTA drivers died of Covid in 2020, IIRC.

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But at much reduced rate.

Requiring vaccination on flights doesnā€™t shut down airlines. Vaccinated passengers (hopefuly the majority) will still travel, and perhaps more frequently because they will feel safer.

The idea is to reduce transmissions to areas less infected, so there wonā€™t be waves after waves from one part of the country to another, and back again.

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From a public health standpoint, this makes a lot of sense. From a legal/constitutional standpoint, it may not. The US legal structure isnā€™t the same as Canadaā€™s or other countries.ā€™ Blue is correct that you would need a federal law to place such restrictions on interstate travel or transport. And of course, such a law would have to pass constitutional muster.

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Iā€™m not a lawyer, but the legal case doesnā€™t appear to be open-and-shut. If you google, thereā€™re many articles offering legal opinions that a federal mandate is legally viable.

Planes seem to be the safer portion of an airplane journey. The greater risks maybe in the terminals because their ventilation systems arenā€™t as advanced.

These studies were done before the vaccine rollout.

And in the end maybe they donā€™t want to know because it harms their business.

btw: Canada will also require vax for longer-distance trains. France will add long-distance busses as well as trains. (At least they are consistent.)

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Thatā€™s not surprising.

Yes, there are, and most rely on a SCOTUS decision in 1905 which gave the states the rights to mandate vaccines within their borders. The Jacobsen decision only dealt with one state, Massachusetts, and not the federal government.

Even Laurence Tribe, noted Constitutional scholar (and liberal who is generally inclined to give the Executive branch broad discretion) noted several years ago, that the Prez ā€œmayā€ have statutory authority, but it would ā€œmost likelyā€ have to come from Congress.

btw: Tribe was one who Biden consulted with wrt Eviction Moratorium, and who said, ā€˜go headā€™; the result was a quick 6-3 overturn. So if Tribe believes it is ā€œmost likelyā€ a Congressional issueā€¦

Regardless, right now even some of the Airlines have not agreed to mandate vaccines for their own employees, so it makes little sense to mandate it for their customers.

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Thereā€™s an article in todayā€™s LA Times (subscription) detailing the rise of Covid in Hawaii. While it doesnā€™t exactly say how Covid is arriving on the islands, it does say that the Native Hawaiians are being hardest hit. They have lower rates of vaccination than other groups. They donā€™t trust government.

Funny that the government is invoked in connection with the vaccines even though they were researched, formulated and manufactured by the private pharma industry that produces all the other medicines people readily consume. I wonder if vaccine uptake would have been better received by certain groups if the vaccines were primarily given at a doctorā€™s office the way most kids receive their multitude of vaccines during early childhood.

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Covid doesnā€™t care. You can take a plane with 300 people on it and if Covid isnā€™t there, thereā€™s no spread even if people are singing and having a great time together. You can take a bus with 1 Covid positive super spreader on it and get spread all along the route.

If certain demographics are more likely to have Covid and take the bus or train, you have spread. In general, it was the wealthier people who could isolate.

As I said before, in the beginning of the pandemic, PAā€™s hot spots were along our highways, specifically at places many travelers like to stop - even if just for a pit stop.

Covid will travel any way Covid positive people do.

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The areas of the island & state which have the lowest VAX rates (30%) also tend to have many people living in close quarters (multi-generational), so if anyone gets any infection, including covid, thereā€™s no place to isolate.

The higher VAX rate areas are also higher socio-economic areas and people live with much lower density so they can isolate if anyone may be ill.

This is a very common pattern, similar to the one in most of the US.

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Note that there is a difference between Hawaii and other states, where NH/PI people tend to have lower vaccination rates than overall in Hawaii, but higher vaccination rates than overall in other states like California and Oregon. However, ā€œoverallā€ in Hawaii is heavily Asian (who generally have high vaccination rates) but non-Asian in the other states, so the basis of comparison differs. There may also be difference in other demographic characteristics (e.g. SES) of NH/PI people in Hawaii versus other states.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/oregon.health.authority.covid.19/viz/OregonCOVID-19VaccineEffortMetrics/StatewideProgress

Hereā€™s one farm storeā€™s attempt at sanity. Seems like a reasonable one to me.

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Or thisā€¦

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Not just to prevent humans from taking horse medicine, itā€™s to make sure the medicine is there for horses (and other livestock) when they need it.

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This guy fulfilled his promise. One has to wonder if he reached a point where he wished he had thought differently or if he was content to end his life with Covid:

https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/569938-florida-radio-host-mr-anti-vax-dies-of-covid-19

ā€œBernierā€™s death comes months after he vowed on the air that he would never get the coronavirus vaccine.ā€

No doubt. But I suspect Common Sense played a part, otherwise the manager could have felt they were doing people a favor by selling the miracle cure to them.

On a positive note, after reading about the TX veteran who died of a gallstone due to no ICU beds being open at least in part because of an overload of Covid patients, H finally took a stand on FB - linking the story. Normally he stays totally free of controversial topics due to being in business and not wanting to turn off potential customers, but heā€™d had enough and politely and firmly said so while linking the article.

Just found out tonight that a relative of mine who could be a Covid death poster child (weight, age, health issues) but has adamantly been on the anti side (honestly, due to politics and religion) occasionally posting such views on their own page, shared Hā€™s post and not in a negative way. Crossing fingers that it means theyā€™re reconsidering. At least theyā€™re thinking, hopefully with others who share their beliefs.

Thereā€™s enough real life death stories out there among the unvaxed.

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